Thread by @BillHanage

What did I say last Friday about the Boston area peaking? The wastewater data are in, and the news is good. @MWRA_update and @BiobotAnalytics providing solid evidence, that importantly *can't* be put down to exhausted testing capacity or other factors 1/n

this is obviously good, but it's not out of the woods good. Many of these infections were in younger age groups. We are now starting to see more infections in older folks, who are more likely to require hospital care 2/n

this would be expected to lead to fewer but more consequential infections in terms of healthcare, and a curve there closer to a plateau. They might drop more quickly than that, and they did in S Africa, but there are more older people here (albeit they are more boosted) 3/n

Importantly this has yet to show any impact of school reopening. This should become apparent in the next week or so 4/n

But this suggests good news for the disruption caused by the sheer numbers of infections. Will likely take a few days to show up in case counts, which if they follow will show a peak around now. Just like there was a peak this time last year. Past is prologue (sometimes) 5/end

And if you're not yet, get boosted! And if you are an influential trusted member of a community that is presently less boosted than it might be, advocate to your friends that they should get a third shot!