Farzad Mostashari Profile picture
Jan 12, 2022 27 tweets 13 min read Read on X
1/ Would you want your employees, your customers, your partners, and government regulators to hear what you tell investors?

It's not done! Different audiences will understand and react to the same thing very differently

I'm going to take that risk today, show you my deck 😱🙏
2/ I'm going to walk through what I presented and said yesterday at the big healthcare investor meeting #JPMHC22

In a normal year, to hear the coveted private company presentations you'd have to be there, investors and executives crammed into small rooms

camera crews outside
3/ What's the problem we're solving?

In the US, we wait until someone has a stroke or heart attack, and will then spare no expense

But we control blood pressure 63% of the time

All the "action" is at the bottom of the waterfall

That's a trillion dollars a year of suffering
4/ As a public health person, this is not just a financial problem, it's a moral catastrophe

When I was @nycHealthy, @DrTomFrieden asked "How can healthcare save the most lives?"

We couldn't even find an attempt to answer the freaking question in the literature-we did the study
5/ Why?

In 2008, we thought that there were 3 problems that had to be solved simultaneously- payment that rewards prevention, information systems oriented to prevention, and practice workflows.

I spent over 10 years focused on the last 2 (reader, it didn't work)
6/ w co-founder @matkendall (& now @ONC_HealthIT Dir. @mickytripathi1) we homed in on moving doctors from paper to electronic health records, adding population health into those (document/billing) systems, and on the hand-on support they would need to convert practice workflows
7/ It didn't work

During my time at @ONC_HealthIT EHR adoption skyrocketed, but blood pressure control didn't budge.

Hearing this @POLITICOPulse podcast recorded w @ddiamond after I left government, I'm struck by how disillusioned I sound.

politico.com/story/2016/05/…
8/ I was looking for some window in American healthcare where preventing a stroke would be more profitable than treating it.

"Accountable Care Organizations" could be it, but I was convinced that physician-led ACOs-and primary care-were the answer, not hospitals & health systems
9/ 10 yrs later, it is now, ironically, conventional wisdom that " "Risk-taking primary care" and "Physician Enablement" are a once-a-generation business opportunity.

We have many "fellow travelers" in this space (FFS is the competition) but we have carved a particular path
10/ Each of these strategic decisions were made deliberately, to maximize the societal reach and scale we could have

Each connects to the others

We would serve exiting practices, with as much of their panel as possible, and stay true to our north star

Not focusing on MA was 🗝️
11/ I learned from @Venrock @BRobertsVC that the power behind @AledadeACO is the creation of incentive alignment

We all prosper if costs go down, the right way.

That's it. That's all of it.

We don't try to make money through (zero-sum) FFS negotiations b/w plans and practices
12/ And to make it easy for practices to join us, we wouldn't charge them (or payers) for technology or coaching or contracts or capital reserves

We aren't "vendors" we're partners

We give them what they need at scale, which means outstanding economics for them (and for payers)
13/ Shedding value means that you make the flywheel spin faster

We also have an awesome virtuous cycle at play:

The more practices we have the easier to get global risk contracts w plans (you need minimum size)

The more contracts, the easier to sign practices

Around🔄Around
14/ When I was just starting Aledade, I used to do a parlor trick.

"Assume you can get 100 primary care docs together

..and they each care for 2,000 patients

...and each patient accounts for $5,000 a year in medical costs

How much spend do they influence?"

(math)
15/ that's right (even if it seems like a crazy number of zeros)

100 PCPs can be a billion dollar business.

If they actually believe that they can manage the total cost and quality of care for their patients

PCPs have been neglected for so long, making that mental leap is hard
16/ But HOW??

It can seem overwhelming, so we shrink it down to what every PCP can agree is just good primary care.

All the results we've accomplished have been based on these Core4™️ advanced primary care practice competencies.

(and yes, we're incubating several Core More)
17/ And yes, building cloud-based software that can be the Operating System for practices' population health work has been key to making these competencies scale

Each data source adds unique value

Actionable Insights >> Data

Workflow is everything

Outcomes are what matters
18/ We are the best engine for accumulating "the opportunity to make a difference" (lives under management) but where we are truly differentiated is in supporting practice behavior change, even (especially) if they don't work for us.

The science and art of aligning 💙,🧠, and🛣️
19/ We launched 100 practices across 5 very different states in 2016- our "reference cohort"

Year after year, they have widened the gap between themselves and their peers in outcomes that matter

More primary care visits
👉 fewer ER visits
👉 fewer hospital admits
👉 lower cost
20/ The Medicare Shared Savings Program has been the most transparent value-based program, saving billions of dollars, even if (excluding Aledade) average savings have been ~2% of total cost of care vs benchmark

Aledade practice cohorts keep getting better, faster 📈
21/ This is how the money works for a mature cohort

We have a budget (benchmark), say $1.5B
Claim payments are deducted
Whats left (10%=$150M) is value we've created

The plan keeps $45M
Our practice partner get $53M
After paying for direct costs ~$47M "platform contribution"
22/ That gross margin goes towards the cost of practice outreach, and building our technology and data platform, plus the regulatory, and legal and finance and all the other overhead expenses.

For years, that was paid for by our investors. But we're now profitable.. and growing
23/ We can now invest more and more into the most important part of our mission- improving care, reducing suffering, and reducing costs.

Which brings us to the big news yesterday... our acquisition of an amazing company- Iris Healthcare

A perfect mission and culture fit
24/ We worked with them for over 3 years to provide comprehensive advance care planning for the most complex patients in our practices.

They spent hours with patients and their families, explored very difficult scenarios, documented, and followed up

The results were terrific 👇
25/ There may be more opportunities like Iris

There are many terrific "point solutions" that tackle a thorny problem well but face challenges in targeting the right patients, engaging them, and getting paid for the value they create, in fee for service, #BetterTogether w Aledade
26/ It's not often that you find the intersection of

a really huge problem
a disruptive wave that scrambles the status quo
a "product" that really works- at scale
a platform that can be built on
and an incredible team that will not quit.

That defines an "interesting company"
27/ I am so grateful for 2 things:

An alignment between business and mission that makes it possible for our company to speak with the same authentic voice to our practices, business partners, policymakers, employees, and investors.

The incredible team at @AledadeACO (join us!)

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More from @Farzad_MD

Apr 7
1/ The CMS final 2026 rate notice for Medicare Advantage just dropped, on the "no later than" date of April 7

The final rate is up- by a lot more than industry consensus of 75-100 bps!

I think a lot of plans are going to feel a little relief about their preliminary bids tonight Image
2/ One sell side analyst said "the most bullish expectation we heard [before] was a +125bps improvement"

ahem... my expectation was better than that, but even I didn't think it would be 310 bps better.

So why?

Because Dr Oz likes Medicare Advantage?

3/ If you missed, go back ands read my January tweetorial on the Advance Rate Notice (which was already "better than expected")

The short answer is that each year's "FFS growth rate" includes a true up of CMS actuaries' past and future cost estimates

Read 14 tweets
Mar 15
1/ I love reading the annual March MedPAC report to Congress on Medicare Payment Policy

such good, clear data and policy thinking.

kudos to @medicarepayment staff and chair @Michael_Chernew

I'll post some thoughts/highlights as I read through this morning
2/ My focus will be on the areas I know best
-Primary care
-Alternative payment models
-Medicare Advantage
-Competition and consolidation

The report is here for those following at home.

medpac.gov/document/march…
3/ Here's the first nugget from their core responsibility - recommending payment rates to congress that ensure beneficiary access to care

Clinicians are paid 140% of Medicare by commercial plans... but you wouldn't know that by working with independent practices (as I do) Image
Read 39 tweets
Feb 15
1/ After residency at Mass General Hospital, I reported to Atlanta to meet my fellow CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers.

I have never felt so intimidated by my peers

The best and the brightest, they were star clinicians, had served in disaster zones; MD/PhDs and MSF.
2/ We were placed at various centers throughout CDC, learning from the world's experts- in tuberculosis, mosquito-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, ...

and some of us were placed with state & local Health departments to be on the front lines of outbreak response
3/ In my first day on the job, I got into a city sanitation car to investigate an outbreak of bloody diarrhea at a state psychiatric facility.

My boss has served in the EIS. Her boss, the legendary head of the NYC Bureau of Communicable Disease had also.

Our commissioner too.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 16
1/ A topic of great interest at #JPM was the "better than expected" 2026 Advance Rate Notice for Medicare Advantage that dropped on Friday

I dug into the numbers - let me share what it might portend for plans and risk-taking providers in MA, after a tough couple of years

(🚀)
2/ I have to say I'm surprised how often investors/analysts believe that government actions are fundamentally arbitrary and unpredictable

I believe most agencies will tell you exactly what they're doing and why, if you have the patience to wade into the weeds

(me: a former fed) Image
3/ The table most people see every year is this one.

Most of these numbers come straight from the actuaries, and there is basically no political interference in eg what number is put in the "Effective Growth Rate" box

instructive @KFFHealthNews interview
kffhealthnews.org/news/foster-re…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
1/ Is Value-Based Care working? After a decade, we know this:

The latest results for the largest such program just dropped.

Giving primary care accountability for total cost and quality of care is good for patients, good for practices, and good for society.

Let's dig in.
2/ As the press release says

480 ACOs providing care to nearly 11 million people with Medicare saved the gov't $5B dollars while improving quality of care

The gov't kept $2B

Providers earned an extra $3B

Beneficiaries saved on lower out-of-pocket spending-AND LESS SUFFERING
3/ Sure, there are alternatives!

We can cut benefits to seniors. That would save money.

We can cut pay for doctors. That would save money.

We can do Denials or "Utilization Management". That would save money.

Or we can incentivize more coordination and more primary care.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 12, 2024
1/ The annual quick read and analysis of the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that regulates the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) is upon us, folks.

like last year, there are a number of uncontroversial/incremental improvements

there are also a couple of head-scratchers..
2/ I will go through in roughly the same order as the excellent fact sheet:
cms.gov/newsroom/fact-…

and as usual, this builds on @Travis_Broome

x.com/Travis_Broome/…
3/ the starting point of the fact sheet is the right one.

there are 11M Medicare benes in the program and the most important goal of any changes should be to increase participation

Here they estimate by 4M over the next few years, towards goal of 100% participation

why? Image
Read 20 tweets

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