Farzad Mostashari Profile picture
Jan 12, 2022 27 tweets 13 min read Read on X
1/ Would you want your employees, your customers, your partners, and government regulators to hear what you tell investors?

It's not done! Different audiences will understand and react to the same thing very differently

I'm going to take that risk today, show you my deck 😱🙏
2/ I'm going to walk through what I presented and said yesterday at the big healthcare investor meeting #JPMHC22

In a normal year, to hear the coveted private company presentations you'd have to be there, investors and executives crammed into small rooms

camera crews outside
3/ What's the problem we're solving?

In the US, we wait until someone has a stroke or heart attack, and will then spare no expense

But we control blood pressure 63% of the time

All the "action" is at the bottom of the waterfall

That's a trillion dollars a year of suffering
4/ As a public health person, this is not just a financial problem, it's a moral catastrophe

When I was @nycHealthy, @DrTomFrieden asked "How can healthcare save the most lives?"

We couldn't even find an attempt to answer the freaking question in the literature-we did the study
5/ Why?

In 2008, we thought that there were 3 problems that had to be solved simultaneously- payment that rewards prevention, information systems oriented to prevention, and practice workflows.

I spent over 10 years focused on the last 2 (reader, it didn't work)
6/ w co-founder @matkendall (& now @ONC_HealthIT Dir. @mickytripathi1) we homed in on moving doctors from paper to electronic health records, adding population health into those (document/billing) systems, and on the hand-on support they would need to convert practice workflows
7/ It didn't work

During my time at @ONC_HealthIT EHR adoption skyrocketed, but blood pressure control didn't budge.

Hearing this @POLITICOPulse podcast recorded w @ddiamond after I left government, I'm struck by how disillusioned I sound.

politico.com/story/2016/05/…
8/ I was looking for some window in American healthcare where preventing a stroke would be more profitable than treating it.

"Accountable Care Organizations" could be it, but I was convinced that physician-led ACOs-and primary care-were the answer, not hospitals & health systems
9/ 10 yrs later, it is now, ironically, conventional wisdom that " "Risk-taking primary care" and "Physician Enablement" are a once-a-generation business opportunity.

We have many "fellow travelers" in this space (FFS is the competition) but we have carved a particular path
10/ Each of these strategic decisions were made deliberately, to maximize the societal reach and scale we could have

Each connects to the others

We would serve exiting practices, with as much of their panel as possible, and stay true to our north star

Not focusing on MA was 🗝️
11/ I learned from @Venrock @BRobertsVC that the power behind @AledadeACO is the creation of incentive alignment

We all prosper if costs go down, the right way.

That's it. That's all of it.

We don't try to make money through (zero-sum) FFS negotiations b/w plans and practices
12/ And to make it easy for practices to join us, we wouldn't charge them (or payers) for technology or coaching or contracts or capital reserves

We aren't "vendors" we're partners

We give them what they need at scale, which means outstanding economics for them (and for payers)
13/ Shedding value means that you make the flywheel spin faster

We also have an awesome virtuous cycle at play:

The more practices we have the easier to get global risk contracts w plans (you need minimum size)

The more contracts, the easier to sign practices

Around🔄Around
14/ When I was just starting Aledade, I used to do a parlor trick.

"Assume you can get 100 primary care docs together

..and they each care for 2,000 patients

...and each patient accounts for $5,000 a year in medical costs

How much spend do they influence?"

(math)
15/ that's right (even if it seems like a crazy number of zeros)

100 PCPs can be a billion dollar business.

If they actually believe that they can manage the total cost and quality of care for their patients

PCPs have been neglected for so long, making that mental leap is hard
16/ But HOW??

It can seem overwhelming, so we shrink it down to what every PCP can agree is just good primary care.

All the results we've accomplished have been based on these Core4™️ advanced primary care practice competencies.

(and yes, we're incubating several Core More)
17/ And yes, building cloud-based software that can be the Operating System for practices' population health work has been key to making these competencies scale

Each data source adds unique value

Actionable Insights >> Data

Workflow is everything

Outcomes are what matters
18/ We are the best engine for accumulating "the opportunity to make a difference" (lives under management) but where we are truly differentiated is in supporting practice behavior change, even (especially) if they don't work for us.

The science and art of aligning 💙,🧠, and🛣️
19/ We launched 100 practices across 5 very different states in 2016- our "reference cohort"

Year after year, they have widened the gap between themselves and their peers in outcomes that matter

More primary care visits
👉 fewer ER visits
👉 fewer hospital admits
👉 lower cost
20/ The Medicare Shared Savings Program has been the most transparent value-based program, saving billions of dollars, even if (excluding Aledade) average savings have been ~2% of total cost of care vs benchmark

Aledade practice cohorts keep getting better, faster 📈
21/ This is how the money works for a mature cohort

We have a budget (benchmark), say $1.5B
Claim payments are deducted
Whats left (10%=$150M) is value we've created

The plan keeps $45M
Our practice partner get $53M
After paying for direct costs ~$47M "platform contribution"
22/ That gross margin goes towards the cost of practice outreach, and building our technology and data platform, plus the regulatory, and legal and finance and all the other overhead expenses.

For years, that was paid for by our investors. But we're now profitable.. and growing
23/ We can now invest more and more into the most important part of our mission- improving care, reducing suffering, and reducing costs.

Which brings us to the big news yesterday... our acquisition of an amazing company- Iris Healthcare

A perfect mission and culture fit
24/ We worked with them for over 3 years to provide comprehensive advance care planning for the most complex patients in our practices.

They spent hours with patients and their families, explored very difficult scenarios, documented, and followed up

The results were terrific 👇
25/ There may be more opportunities like Iris

There are many terrific "point solutions" that tackle a thorny problem well but face challenges in targeting the right patients, engaging them, and getting paid for the value they create, in fee for service, #BetterTogether w Aledade
26/ It's not often that you find the intersection of

a really huge problem
a disruptive wave that scrambles the status quo
a "product" that really works- at scale
a platform that can be built on
and an incredible team that will not quit.

That defines an "interesting company"
27/ I am so grateful for 2 things:

An alignment between business and mission that makes it possible for our company to speak with the same authentic voice to our practices, business partners, policymakers, employees, and investors.

The incredible team at @AledadeACO (join us!)

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More from @Farzad_MD

Apr 6
1/ The Final 2027 Rate Notice will be welcome news for those battered Medicare advantage stocks

The Final notice comes in at 239bps better than the Advance notice (when asked recently, I hazarded it would be 150-200bps better)

let's revisit this string to see what changed Image
2/ On the Effective Growth Rate (the actuarial folks that are fiercely indendent)-

2 changes that are basically aligned with what I thought would happen:

2025 (8% -> 7.3 w slower trend in H2 data
2026 (2% -> 3.1% on assumptions)

so net up about 40 bps
3/ On the risk adjustment policy front, there was a technical problem

The update (2023 data predicting 2024 costs) included skyrocketing skin substitute costs. Since policy took those costs away after 2025, model needed to be redone to lower the weight given to eg skin ulcer Dx
Read 7 tweets
Apr 4
1/ A new @CMSinnovates ACO model was released this week

In our interview with @AbeSutton on the #ACOshow I teased him about how every new CMMI director seems to believe the world needs yet another primary care model (instead of improving the #MSSP model)

Did he prove me wrong? Image
2/ He might have

Here's what the RFA says is the new model is testing- bear with me and we will walk through each one

1. Bringing in high cost providers
2. Benchmarking that avoids ratchets
3. High needs/duals patient
4. Specialist engagement fin model
5. Beneficiary incentives Image
3/ Growing ACO participation

MSSP winners have been more efficient physician-led practices (fewer specialist/procedures, less expensive hospital care)

The hypothesis is that if we can get high cost providers into ACOs, they can save more money.

I'm skeptical, but good to test Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 29
1/ CMS released the "2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Advance Notice" on Monday afternoon, and health plan stocks lost some $100B of market value?

What was so shocking?

Let's descend into policy weeds & make some predictions about Final Notice

(not investment advice obvsly) Image
2/ Here's the big components of this year's notice, compared to last year.

A 5 percentage point difference in payments is a BIG deal for a $500B industry currently nursing profit margins of 0-2%

(this does not include an expected 2.45% increase in payments from coding trend) Image
3/ The top part is actuarial math-

good or bad, most people ascribe political intent to it, but it's just what the independent green-eyed shade professionals estimate for trends in costs in Traditional Medicare

by law, that's what the MA plan rate increases are indexed to
Read 29 tweets
Aug 28, 2025
1/ The 2024 Medicare Shared Savings Program results are released from embargo!

topline results:
10,326,340 bene-years (12% @AledadeACO )
$6,452,075,989 in savings versus benchmark
$4,062,804,612 in payments to ACOs (19% Aledade)
Largest savings ever
Higher quality than FFS🎉
2/ fact sheet:
$643 (2024) vs $515 (2023) in gross per capita savings

Almost 2x savings rate for "low revenue ACOs" (physician-led/FQHC/RHCs) and for those composed predominantly of primary care clinicians vs high revenue ACOs (typically hospital-led)

cms.gov/files/document…
3/ How do they get savings?

"lower utilization compared to their benchmark across many categories of utilization including hospital discharges, Emergency Department visits and Skilled Nursing Facility stays"

Better chronic disease management
More prevention
Less suffering
Read 10 tweets
Apr 7, 2025
1/ The CMS final 2026 rate notice for Medicare Advantage just dropped, on the "no later than" date of April 7

The final rate is up- by a lot more than industry consensus of 75-100 bps!

I think a lot of plans are going to feel a little relief about their preliminary bids tonight Image
2/ One sell side analyst said "the most bullish expectation we heard [before] was a +125bps improvement"

ahem... my expectation was better than that, but even I didn't think it would be 310 bps better.

So why?

Because Dr Oz likes Medicare Advantage?

3/ If you missed, go back ands read my January tweetorial on the Advance Rate Notice (which was already "better than expected")

The short answer is that each year's "FFS growth rate" includes a true up of CMS actuaries' past and future cost estimates

Read 14 tweets
Mar 15, 2025
1/ I love reading the annual March MedPAC report to Congress on Medicare Payment Policy

such good, clear data and policy thinking.

kudos to @medicarepayment staff and chair @Michael_Chernew

I'll post some thoughts/highlights as I read through this morning
2/ My focus will be on the areas I know best
-Primary care
-Alternative payment models
-Medicare Advantage
-Competition and consolidation

The report is here for those following at home.

medpac.gov/document/march…
3/ Here's the first nugget from their core responsibility - recommending payment rates to congress that ensure beneficiary access to care

Clinicians are paid 140% of Medicare by commercial plans... but you wouldn't know that by working with independent practices (as I do) Image
Read 39 tweets

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