We are on the edge of earnings season and it's feeling palpable. Two headlines that I thought were interesting.

VAT Group preannounced ahead of street orders accelerated meaningfully. 20% of orders were 1 time in nature - but that's a meaningful acceleration ex that.
Not quite a pre-release but $ONTO put out a total backlog number to the tune of ~$500 million. $100 million of it just for packaging for 2.5d/3d packaging. $100m in orders for new JetStep Lithography system (PCB litho iirc)

Bodes well for $CAMT as well ofc.
$TSM is tonight. I expect a capex guide increase.
How is the $VAT group information not saying "hey chamber count is going to increase a ton"
$SIMO a big pre announcement

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More from @_fabknowledge_

13 Jan
TSMC reported earnings last night and their results shocked most investors. Why? Buckle up and let's talk about one of my favorite companies in the world: TSMC.
1/ the biggest surprises were revenue guidance and capex guidance.

Let's start with revenue guidance - TSMC guided to ~16.6b-17.2b in Q1 or 6% over Q1 consensus. TSMC believes they can do "mid to high 20s" revenue growth

importantly they are reporting ACCELERATING REVENUE!
2/ on the capex side they came out with an eye popping 40-44 billion dollars in additions - or 40% at the midpoint over 2021. This was far in excess of any estimate on the street. The highest estimate was 40 billion.

This of course is good for WFE and Semicap.
Read 13 tweets
29 Dec 21
Semiconductors can be a hard industry to understand, especially for investors without a technical background.

Here are a few of the books that really helped me understand semiconductors better. In order of approachability - a 🧵
1/ In the beginning there was Fairchild.

I think that is the best way to start. Makers of the Microchip by Christophe Lécuyer is the best book to begin with IMO.
2/ Fairchild of course birthed Intel - which is where "The Intel Trinity" by Michael Malone transition well into.

Intel of course is *the company* in semiconductor history and this was one of the better books I read about this topic.
Read 15 tweets

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