I'm all ears to hear about the precise scientific process that occurred between Feb 2 and Feb 4, 2020 where top experts in virology and evolutionary biology completely changed their minds about the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 emerging from a lab.
In Jeremy Farrar's book, he noted that Marion Koopmans had said furin cleavage site insertions happen in viruses all the time naturally.
Kristian Andersen, lead author of Proximal Origin, said just because it happened in nature did not rule out unnatural origins.
By the time Proximal Origin was published (i.e., the final paper), Koopmans argument had been absorbed into the manuscript without acknowledgement.
"insertions.. can occur.. the polybasic cleavage site can arise by a natural evolutionary process." nature.com/articles/s4159…
The authors, who believed a lab origin was as likely or more likely than a natural origin on the day they drafted Proximal Origin, had abandoned their initial stance that just because something can evolve naturally doesn't mean lab origin can be ruled out.
The lead author had already begun to assert without evidence to other experts in private meetings in the first days of Feb 2020 that he could tell there had been no genetic engineering of the virus.
For what reason were the other attendees of the Feb 1 phone call and experts who convened and advised the drafting of Proximal Origin not given proper acknowledgement in the paper that they had organized, conceived, and/or contributed intellectually to?
Imagine attending a meeting where you disagree strongly with a peer, only to discover later that they have drafted a manuscript adopting your arguments without crediting you.
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The questions in this letter are not specific or productive if directed at the leaders of NIH/NIAID.
The priority should be to secure a commitment from NIH/NIAID to publicly release the Feb 4, 2020 draft of Proximal Origin and the fully unredacted emails. republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
None of the 7 questions ask specifically what the perceived competing interests in the Feb 1 group are, ie, what the impact of a lab #OriginOfCovid would be on the participants' careers and reputations; why several contributors went completely unacknowledged in Proximal Origin.
None of the 7 questions ask specifically what corrective actions should be taken while this issue is being resolved, eg, editor's note on Proximal Origin, recusal of Feb 1 participants from all academic/advisory activities relating to #OriginOfCovid
Transcripts of the early 2020 exchanges on the #OriginOfCovid among leading scientists in the US & Europe show they were privately worried about a lab origin of Covid-19.
In private, they understood that "the only people with sufficient information or access to samples to address [the #OriginOfCovid] would be the teams working in Wuhan."
In public, they wrote "we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
The day (Feb 4, 2020) that a first draft of Proximal Origin was shared with Fauci and Collins by Farrar, Farrar said Edward Holmes (one of the Proximal Origin authors) had guessed 60:40 lab and Farrar guessed 50:50.
Peter Daszak asked for US-funded virus data to be withheld, FOIAed by @USRightToKnow
"It's extremely important that we don't have these sequences as part of our PREDICT release.. Having them as part of PREDICT will being very unwelcome attention" usrtk.org/wp-content/upl…
@USRightToKnow Only way to know if some of these virus sequences are completely new and still not public is for NCBI database or PREDICT to release the data.
@USRightToKnow The FOIA process is so protracted that we're only seeing April 2020 emails in Jan 2022. And there are many, many more FOIAs and appeals against redactions still ongoing for emails from 2020.
Stories of Covid-19 whistleblower doctors, journalists & scientists - disappeared, imprisoned, penalized, maltreated, slandered as rumormongers - doesn't inspire confidence that the world will get a timely alert the next time a mysterious outbreak appears. cnn.com/interactive/20…
These reports are old, but the problem persists.
How can global pandemic response be rapid if there are countries where alerting your hospital colleagues to a novel outbreak and telling them to wear protective equipment results in punishment? theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…
I don't think it is a misstatement to say doctors were being brutally silenced when they blew the whistle on the earliest Covid-19 cases. Several lost their lives in this process after being forced to sign confessions and returning to fight the outbreak.
The case for a wet market #OriginOfCovid remains dimly lit. Lack of access to data describing what potential intermediate hosts were even sold at Huanan market in late 2019. Lack of access to early case data and exposures to potential sources of the virus.
Sorry to disappoint some natural origin diehards, but not all people who think a lab #OriginOfCovid is plausible are going to think Omicron likely came from a lab.
You have to evaluate the evidence and circumstances specific to each emergence.
I'm aware of the @newrepublic review of our book VIRAL: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19. I don't have much to say about it because it isn't a review of VIRAL. It was an opinion on #OriginOfCovid dressed up as a book review.
In order to formulate a response in defense of the book, there must be facts-based criticisms of the book's content, which do not exist in the @newrepublic review.
So how should I respond to a negative review that goes after the same old strawmen not represented in the book?
@newrepublic One scientific scenario I can compare this to is when you get a peer reviewer who clearly has a vendetta against a particular hypothesis. Instead of critiquing the data in the paper, goes after old arguments by other scientists, recommending rejection of the manuscript at hand.