26) Schumer’s maneuver immediately triggers another vote. If all 50 Democrats and Vice President Harris vote yes, in favor of Schumer’s appeal, then voila, the Senate has established a new precedent, ala Nuclear Options I and II. This is “Nuclear Option III.”
27) There is then a “filibuster carve-out” in the Senate for bills related to voting rights. If so, only 51 votes are necessary to end filibusters on THOSE TYPES of bills. But a 60 vote threshold remains in place for ALL OTHER types of legislation.

That is the nuclear option.
28) However….

We don’t expect Schumer to have the votes to successfully launch a nuclear option. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and others are reluctant to alter Senate precedent on the filibuster.
29) The question is whether or not Schumer will carry out an unsuccessful nuclear strike. Schumer is playing his cards close to his vest. Does Schumer really want to lose on the floor and have multiple Democratic senators on the record as voting against changing Senate precedent?
30) To be clear, that may be part of Schumer’s gambit. He gets Republicans on the record as blocking the bill and the precedent change. Schumer can then portray those GOPers as “obstructionist.” But Schumer also engages in some internecine warfare here.
31) Left-wing groups will then turn up the heat on Democratic senators who oppose the gambit. The hope by progressives is that those moderate senators eventually change their position.
32) In fact, Schumer has been gradually turning up the heat on liberals on this issue for a while now. A failed cloture vote or two will only intensify that heat.
33) The other question is whether Schumer simply decides that a “failed cloture vote” in an effort to start to debate on a voting rights bill is THE vote he wants to emphasize. That could potentially short-circuit and abbreviate all of the machinations listed above.
34) In other words, the Senate votes later this week or on Martin Luther King Day on Monday and that’s it.

35) But, it’s also possible Schumer could tee up the key vote (in whatever form it takes) for Monday and hold the Senate in session throughout the weekend, burning clock. Republicans might not participate. The Democrats could just rail on the floor all weekend long.

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More from @ChadPergram

13 Jan
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to President Biden’s Appeal to Democrats Today on Voting Rights and the Filibuster

President Biden travels to Capitol Hill today to make a personal pitch to Senate Democrats to pass a new, combo voting rights bill and potentially alter the filibuster.
2) Mr. Biden will lunch with Senate Democrats as the House packages the John Lewis voting bill and the Freedom to Vote Act into one measure.
3) Note that President Biden has not enjoyed a great deal or succees when appearing on Capitol Hill with the Democratic Caucuses in an effort to implore lawmakers to approve the touchstones of his agenda.
Read 14 tweets
12 Jan
1) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has now laid out a strategy regarding the voting rights bill an the filibuster.
2) What will happen is the HOUSE will tee up an unrelated NASA bill. In place of the NASA language, the House will prep the text of the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Voting Rights bill and potentially put these measures in front of the House Rules Cmte as early as tonight
3) The House will then consider those bills on the floor, presumably Thursday and ship the “new,” combo bill to the Senate.
Read 14 tweets
12 Jan
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To What Democrats May Do To Alter the Filibuster for Voting Rights
2) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has not yet tipped his hand to what sort of votes the Senate may take in the coming days regarding voting rights or a potential vote or votes alter the filibuster.
3) Regardless, at this stage, Schumer lacks the votes to overcome a GOP filibuster of the bill. Schumer is also short on votes to alter Senate filibuster provisions. Therefore, Schumer doesn’t have the votes to pass the bill.
Read 25 tweets
12 Jan
1) User's Manual to Reid lying in state: For the second time in as many months, a late Senate Majority Leader lies in state in the Capitol Rotunda Wednesday. Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) died just after Christmas.
2) Reid becomes the 34th prominent American to lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda. Reid’s flag-draped casket will arrive at the Capitol at 10:30 am et and be ushered into the Rotunda by an honor guard.
3) Reid’s coffin will rest atop the catafalque, a crude, wooden platform used in the Rotunda when President Lincoln lied in state.
Read 13 tweets
11 Jan
A) Fauci to GOP KY Sen Paul: What happens when he gets out and accuses me of things that are completely untrue is that..kindles the crazies out there and I have life threats upon my life, harassment of my family and my children with obscene phone calls because people are lying
B) Fauci: It makes a difference..on December 21st, a person was arrested who was on the way from Sacramento to Washington, DC at a speed stop in Iowa. And they asked the police to ask him where he was going and he was going to Washington, DC to kill Dr. Fauci.
C) Fauci: And they found in his car an AR-15 and multiple magazines of ammunition because he thinks that maybe I'm killing people. So I ask myself, why would Senator want to do this?
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
1) Colleague Kelly Phares rpts more than 160 House members have filed paperwork for remote voting today. But there have been multiple positive tests among members just today.
2) The House is slated to conduct a quorum call at 6:30 pm et tonight to conduct a quorum call to formally launch the 2nd session of the 117th Congress.
3) If the House did not have remote voting, put into place after the pandemic, it may struggle to get a quorum to officially start the second session.
Read 6 tweets

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