South Korea is caught b/t a rock (the military option) and a hard place (admitting the North as a de facto nuclear state)
US-ROK Deterrence Architecture
[27 Feb 2018]
theasanforum.org/us-rok-deterre…
“The military option, which involves attacking North Korea preemptively, cannot be South
US-ROK Deterrence Architecture
[27 Feb 2018]
theasanforum.org/us-rok-deterre…
“The military option, which involves attacking North Korea preemptively, cannot be South
2/“Korea’s choice, because its goal is peace and there is undeniable risk that military conflicts would ensue and possibly lead to a nuclear exchange. Still, surrendering to the rogue regime’s military ambitions by admitting the North as a de facto nuclear state should not occur.
3/“The right strategy can frustrate the enemy to surrender even without any conflict.”
No one wants to be caught b/t Scylla and Charybdis in a real-world situation. However ROK’s dilemma is largely of it’s own making, a perceived conundrum brought to life by inadequate problem-
No one wants to be caught b/t Scylla and Charybdis in a real-world situation. However ROK’s dilemma is largely of it’s own making, a perceived conundrum brought to life by inadequate problem-
4/solving skills, misperceptions and insufficient objectivity & critical thinking skills. Let’s examine ROK’s erroneous strategy:
I) The false dichotomy: military option vs admitting DPRK as a de facto nuclear state.
To accept or not to accept reality, that is ROK’s difficulty.
I) The false dichotomy: military option vs admitting DPRK as a de facto nuclear state.
To accept or not to accept reality, that is ROK’s difficulty.
5/It doesn’t want DPRK to be nuclear. Well guess what? DPRK is staying nuclear b/c it can’t trust US-ROK & won’t be another Libya. So ROK wants to live on the river of DENIAL: “We cannot accept DPRK as a nuclear state”. News flash: It’s been a de facto nuclear state since 2017.
6/So ROK isn’t living in the real world. Got it. Check.
II) The false premise: DPRK will eventually fully denuclearize
Actuality: Nuclear deterrence is part of DPRK’s National Defense, i.e. non-negotiable
III) The wrong strategy: “Win w/out a fight”, I.e. get DPRK to “surrender”
II) The false premise: DPRK will eventually fully denuclearize
Actuality: Nuclear deterrence is part of DPRK’s National Defense, i.e. non-negotiable
III) The wrong strategy: “Win w/out a fight”, I.e. get DPRK to “surrender”
7/by applying Maximum Pressure sanctions that crippled the economy.
The reason: An Armistice was signed, DPRK is waiting for a Peace Treaty & won’t “surrender” anything. No one “wins” or “loses” the Korean War b/c the Armistice is supposed to lead to ☮️. The mindset of: “We can
The reason: An Armistice was signed, DPRK is waiting for a Peace Treaty & won’t “surrender” anything. No one “wins” or “loses” the Korean War b/c the Armistice is supposed to lead to ☮️. The mindset of: “We can
8/can get DPRK to surrender” is problematic and shows that US-ROK are acting in accord w/ Zhou Enlai’s famous maxim: “All diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means”. DPRK is waiting on the Treaty promised by the Armistice. “Surrender”?? What is ROK
https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1477884335596269570?s=20
9/smoking?!
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