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r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
@GreaterfoolVan
Jan 12, 2022 • 16 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
New: Greater Vancouver Covid-19 Virus in Wastewater:
Lulu Isld:
Dec 20: 47,219
Jan 5: 803,923 (17x)
Iona:
Dec 20: 40,060
Jan 5: 332,835 (8x)
Lions Gate:
Dec 20: 27,064
Jan 5: 304,426 (11x)
Annacis:
Dec 20: 37,117
Jan 5: 694,718 (19x)
metrovancouver.org/services/liqui…
@vb_jens #Covid19BC ImageImageImageImage
Not sure of factors that can influence wastewater Covid-19 virus concentration (eg freezing vs snowmelt conditions?)
Map of wastewater treatment plants in Greater Vancouver Image
Now correlate with BCCDC Reported Cases for Vancouver Coastal health .. Image
in 16 days wastewater Covid virus concentration increased up to 19x in greater Vancouver. doubling time ∼4 days. (uncertain impact of regional precipitation / snowmelt pattern).
During same period VCH reported case # unchanged/declined. One can estimate degree of under-reporting
Add Langley
Dec 20: 31,334
Jan 5: 300,700 (10x) Image
In city of Vancouver, parts of the city still have combined sewer system, where stormwater is combined in single pipe with wastewater from homes etc, carried to sewage treatment plant.
vancouver.ca/home-property-… ImageImage
Also in Burnaby, parts of city still have legacy combined sewer system, where rain water also gets treated (and thus diluting Covid-19 virus concentration) burnaby.ca/services-and-p… Image
Between Jan 5-7:
Increasing mean temp to above freezing (melting snow)
Large increase in Total precipitation including rain.
Combined sewer system draining rainwater into sewage treatment plants -> Diluting virus concentration. climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/d… Image
Quick answer: Warming to > 0C + significant rainfall Jan 5-7 may have contributed to dilution of Covid-19 virus concentration in wastewater treatment plants in Greater Vancouver where there are still Combined Sewage system treating Home + Rain water.
Good on BCCDC to point out the snowmelt run-off in the situation report released today.
but we should predict the snowmelt run-off affects results in a "underestimation" kind of way. bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si… #Covid19BC Image
Don't know why BCCDC bother putting the "daily cases" line in the graph knowing the % positivity rate was 30%+ and PCR testing was signficantly reduced since Dec 23 (VCH) and Dec 30 (FH). Image
One don't use known under-reported case trend to try to reach a narrative with waste water data.
One use wastewater data to try to understand how much undertesting there was.
Eg Iona island, cases 'dropped' ~Dec 20, coinciding with VCH switching away from PCR on Dec 23. Image

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More from @GreaterfoolVan

r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
Apr 7, 2022
Live tweet 🧵: UBC CPD Covid-19 Update #10: Expert Q&A (For healthcare professionals): April 6, 2022
#Covid19BC
Panelist: Dr. Reka Gustafson, Dr. Mark Lysyshyn, Dr. Manish Sadarangani, Dr. Birinder Narang, Dr. Jennifer Grant, Dr. Jolanta Piszczek
RG: sig porportion of those admitted during Omicron wave are in 'with covid', not 'for covid'
Read 29 tweets
r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
Apr 5, 2022
UBC Webinar "Expert Q&A" for health professionals - tomorrow..
User submitted Q's:
"How can PHO justify removing mandatory masking in crowded enclosed places? Mask wearing reduces virus transmission. It is not possible to avoid the virus being spewed out by unmasked, infected people ... not enough protection for average vulnerable person."
Another Q for UBC webinar tonight:
"Could someone please show us a redrawn epi curve with your estimates of what 1st, 5th & 6th wave case counts more likely looked like given our minimal use of PCR testing on the general population of symptomatic people during those periods?"
Read 14 tweets
r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
Feb 23, 2022
% Positivity by Vaccine Status & Health Authority up to Feb 6 (MSP public funded tests)
VCH #Covid19BC
% Positivity by Vaccine Status & Health Authority up to Feb 6 (MSP public funded tests)
Fraser Health #Covid19BC
% Positivity by Vaccine Status & Health Authority up to Feb 6 (MSP public funded tests)
Interior Health #Covid19BC
Read 5 tweets
r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
Jan 16, 2022
🧵 BC PH modelling report on Jan 14 said "Virus concentration in wastewater peaked in first week of January and correlates with COVID-19 case counts across FHA and VCH".
"infections are likely to have reached their peak"
news.gov.bc.ca/files/14.01.22… (1/n)
Also "BC's case trajectory so far is consistent with that observed in other jurisdictions.." (2/n)
But with much reduced PCR testing starting Dec 23 (Vancouver) & Dec 30 (Fraser Health), and very high % positivity (40%+), the reported case counts do Not reflect the current situation. (Rapid tests are not reported) (3/n)
Read 15 tweets
r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
Jan 15, 2022
Excess rainwater in sewer system "5 to 10 times the sewage volume"
One can guess what that's gonna do to Covid-19 virus concentration in wastewater treatment stations.
burnabynow.com/local-news/tax…
**Unless BC Wastewater Covid-19 concentration measurements are Normalized (like Ottawa, Sask).
But 'Normalization' was not mentioned in BC's wastewater data or by BCCDC situation report.
613covid.ca/wastewater/
Read 6 tweets
r/Coronavirus_BC Profile picture
Jan 14, 2022
POLL: For BC K-12 parents, school staff and students, about what percentage of students in class did NOT come to school this week (Jan 10-14)? #BCEd #Covid19BC #BCpoli
Current results: Image
Image
Read 5 tweets

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