I thought I might turn yesterday's thread into theatre
What's today's fog ?
The power - the supremacy - of the Chinese state "they got this"...
The allure of buying the washout in Chinese tech.
US CPI rising at 1982 levels
The shock of bond yields
The ignorance of the collapsing spread between the short and the long end ?
I'm gonna read The Invisible Man for inspiration. He would know how to respond...
But first, let's return to Dostoevsky's The Idiot. Call me Ippolit. I'm an ardent nihilist yearning to be taken seriously. I desire only to leave this world dramatically. I've failed once.
Five years before I wrote to my bearish clients to proclaim my bullishness. Last bear turns bullish they sighed. I deliver rambling, self-absorbed, nihilistic speeches wherever I go. I know I'm gonna die.
But as death inevitably draws closer, I start groping for the meaning of life. I flee to a beautiful island in the Caribbean - the wonder and awe of my natural surroundings are greater than any shroom trip. I'm more at one with myself and no longer shocked by the word "happiness"
But my personality hasn't really been transformed. I'm still a nasty piece of work. I meet up with my generous benefactors, The Fed. They've allowed me and my type to prosper for decades. The mindful might offer gratitude in the house of their host. Me? I lay into them.
I hate you I say, bluntly...you're the most vulgar and detestable form of commonplaceness; you have no chance of fathering the pettiest ideas of your own. And yet you are as conceited as you can possibly be; you consider yourself a genius.
Harsh? Why has my spiritual nirvana left me so mean spirited? I blame the F-O-G. The acceptance of the spread of a fascist mercantilism which spreads misery to the many and riches to the few. The censorship of the damning word DEFLATION. Mic drop...it's time to end the farce.
@GeorgeGammon recently asked me..Why did you give up macro ?
Because financial danger to the many has become a signal to shut off their sight, suspend their judgment pursue an unaltered course to the brink, on the unstated premise that the danger will always remain unreal owing to the supposed super-sovereign power of the central banks
And their cronies in fin media spooning their spider lullabies that « they got this ». They’re like a foghorn at the centre of the financial universe, blowing the unwary investor, not to sound a warning, but to summon the fog once more.
In this week's podcast, I go all existential to reveal my conversations with inanimate objects in generating macro narrative - I examine the dollar-yen cross - and go all paranoid schizophrenic "Could it really trade thro' 155 if not return to 200 ???" my voices ask?
Don't short the yen quite yet...but my medical examiner's certificate tells me that if the direction persists and we take out 125 / 135 the power to the upside would be so considerable that you would need to check your macro premises
So these aren't projections but rather my attempt at throwing light on the inspiration for macro trades - think of it like method acting for macro projections and Me? Well I'm the methodman dropping some beats inside my head...
@ziadaboujamra who cares to procrastinate re Chin property when internet names are already down 2/3rds and my rational side really wants to agree that 60% bears are buying opp.s except I’m old enough to have wasted a decade trying to buy euro / global telcos on that premise
I’ve come to recognise that sometimes, and I promise that its more the exception than the rule, but sometimes stocks are more like a promise struggling to be fulfilled…
That sometimes, fallen angel stocks take on the properties of dead phosphorescence, radiating impotent, borrowed energy. Sometimes…
It's Friday...are you ready for an epic adventure? If you can peel your eyes away from the closing candle formation on the yield of the US Treasury as it battles an obvious key level, I got a new podcast just out with co-conspirator, @writes_sweeney
Find out why i was channeling The Beatles back in 2005. Paul was sorrowful as the band’s commercial infighting saw them disintegrate just as the French were demanding that their wartime allies send them gold and not all this funny dollar money...gratitude ?
I explain my fear of financial meteors and recount a tale that sees men in kilts wading through pools of reindeer blood…how can you not tune in ??
Hey @GeorgeGammon loved our show at the beloved Rebel Basecamp the other week. Check this quote out. Its from a popular book release in 1957 but it resonates so much with today. I thought it might tickle you...it's the pronouncement of a fictional government doctor
"The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren’t enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.
But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted—and you create a nation of lawbreakers—and then you cash in on guilt. Now that’s the system..."
@ziadaboujamra asks if I would buy Turkish equities? And with the dastardly Turk authorities now seeking to terrorise fin tweets it's just too much not to comment. Equities are a v functional way of capturing the huge income transfer from WE the people to THEM the corporates.
But buy now? Be cognisant of the flight path. Buying German Weimar stocks was also a v effective profit centre in the early stages of the great inflation. Likewise Turk equitis have worked. But as I suggested in my paper "Dawn of. Chaos" Hyper Infl is a rare & devastating scourge
Turkey is susceptible to a more sustained inflation epidemic simply because its fin assets are such a small % of gdp. The fin system was already broken. Locals didn't trust the monetary power as witnessed by v small deposits/gdp and guvies/gdp. In lira, we the people trust not...