About a month ago, Imperial College's Neil Ferguson (also known as Professor Lockdown) projected UK would reach 5K deaths per day in this wave without major restrictions.
The UK tested that theory. Cases have peaked and are crashing. Current 7 day-average of deaths is 246.
At the time, the media also extensively spread claims from Ferguson's team that there is no evidence that Omicron was milder than Delta. That was indisputably wrong.
The point is that it's about time we start holding people who want to influence public policy accountable for the inputs based on which they make their recommendations. The UK has based a lot of policy on projections and recommendations made by that team. That should stop.
My favorite was also when people took these bad models from the UK to project up to 30K deaths per day in the US during this wave.
One more for the account that spreads more Covid-19 alarmism and falsehoods than any other.
"All those who said “it’s mild” need to think about how many they have endangered."
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A lot of the vaccine-skeptics don't have any skepticism for the people they get information from. Ex: A common reply I get re Vax efficacy is that they know people who have gotten vaccinated and then gotten Covid-19. Clearly true and proves vax have less than 100% efficacy. (1/)
But they don't apply same logic to claims by people they are taking info from. Ex: A central claim from Dr. Peter McCullough, one of the most prominent anti-vax people, is actually getting Covid-19 gives you permanent immunity.
Here he is saying it on Rogan's podcast recently:
But we know there are tens of thousands of people right now getting re-infected. I personally know 2 people that have had Covid-19 3 times. He's claiming 100% efficacy for natural illness. Easily checkable, but no one holds him to that claim.
Problem here is that Berenson relies on people being easily manipulated/bad at math.
Ex of how this works: If there are 400 vaccinated adults and 100 unvaccinated and 20% get exposed to Covid-19. If vaccines are 50% effective, 40 vaccinated and 20 unvaccinated get Covid-19.
Berenson will then say "See? twice as many people that are vaccinated got Covid!. Vaccines actually hurt you" when truth is that data shows you're half as likely to get Covid-19 with the vaccines.
Obviously wrong but bc people are frustrated w 0-Covid side, they buy into it.
I remember this. DeSantis put what was right above the polls while the press and partisans created an entire science-free hysteria campaign to suggest opening schools was dangerous.
He then overcame a lawsuit from the unions. He was indisputably right, and they were all wrong.
It was a defining moment during the pandemic. It also put pressure on a lot of other states/the feds to do the right thing with schools. It became much harder to argue it was dangerous to open schools when Florida did it successfully and the kids there benefitted enormously.
At some point, someone will have to go back and find the articles from then about how "experts" warn a wave of infections and deaths is coming if Florida reopens schools. And how DeSantis was ignoring the (selective) experts and prioritizing politics over safety.
Same pattern every week. It's exhausting. Local Democrats, especially Nikki Fried, spread false or misleading stories about DeSantis. National media picks it up with the same partisan framing. It gets debunked and they move on to the next one.
In this case, FL stocked up on a lot of tests during the summer surge. After that surge, demand went way down. These tests expired in Sept. When they expire, FL has to seek a waiver to still use them. They did so and got one until Dec. Many still remained as this.... (1/2)
surge started hitting. So they now have asked for the waiver once again. They were following protocols for tests that have been around for some time, but Fried deceptively made it seem like they just expired and can't be used. Media eagerly parrots again.
There is no "work remote" option for schools. That should be clear.
They have chosen to refuse to do their jobs and abandon kids. Not for safety or public health, but purely out of selfishness and a preference to work from home in a job that can't actually be done from home.
They don't care if it puts working class parents in an impossible position. They don't care if causes learning loss that will take years to make up. They don't care if it's leading to a mental health crisis among kids. They don't care.
Parents need to stand up for their kids.
Who exactly do you think will be hurt by Chicago schools shutting down? Not rich families that live in the suburbs.
It's the people who can least afford to be hurt. Those that can't afford to skip work, that can't afford to fall behind in classes, that can't afford tutors etc.
Chicago Public Schools CEO Pedro Martinez notes that schools are safe and have consistently have lower transmission rates than surrounding communities.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot going straight at the teacher's union: "CTU leadership is compelling their membership to make a decision tonight that will do real harm to families"
Lightfoot points out that the teacher's union is screwing over parents that won't find out until late tonight if their kids have somewhere to go tomorrow. And that the CTU has done this more than once over the last few years.