My latest for @crisisgroup looks at Myanmar’s decades-old ethnic conflicts, how the coup has transformed the conflict landscape in #Myanmar, and what should be done. Thread below. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #Jan13coup 1/16
crisisgroup.org/asia/south-eas…
Prior to the coup, most of Myanmar’s 20-plus EAOs had ceasefires with the central govt but political negotiations had stalled. Coup has killed the peace process launched in 2011 (despite what the regime and some EAOs say). 2/16
crisisgroup.org/asia/south-eas…
Enter the National Unity Government. The federal army or “united front” against the regime that some hoped for was not plausible in wake of coup, but the cooperation to date between NUG and several EAOs has been very significant. 3/16
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
Political agreements have been key. The NUG has made important concessions to minorities, esp. Federal Democracy Charter, and gone further than NLD govt was willing to in the peace process. 4/16
irrawaddy.com/news/burma/mya…
EAOs are also being pushed by their communities to take a strong position against the coup. Those that have sided with NUG are generally most responsive to their communities and among strongest advocates for a federal political system. 5/16
Four groups (KIO, KNU, CNF and KNPP) have emerged as strongest partners of the NUG. Half a dozen or more are engaging quietly. Even these four have tried to obscure their cooperation for strategic reasons, but that doesn't make their engagement less significant. 6/16
The coup has turned Myanmar's conflict map upside down. Fighting has erupted in minority areas that had been *relatively* peaceful (Kayin, Kayah, Chin), while Rakhine, after two years of war, is quiet. 7/16
The regime has made overtures to EAOs as well, with some success (eg, Rakhine, Mon, Wa). It will seek to replicate the late 80s/early 90s, when it broke apart a similar alliance through bilateral deals and the KNU was left isolated. 8/16
But this strategy will be much more difficult to execute now. The political, social and economic change over the past three decades is immense (think liberalised economy, internet access). Regime has little to offer politically to EAOs, esp. after destroying peace process. 9/16
Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing has tried to separate talks with EAOs (which he deems acceptable) from newly formed political/armed groups, especially NUG and PDFs (unacceptable), most recently in his meeting with Cambodian PM Hun Sen. 10/16 france24.com/en/asia-pacifi…
But the lines between old and new armed groups are increasingly blurry. All four EAOs mentioned above (and others) are fighting together with newly formed armed groups that the regime seems determined to crush (PDFs, groups like CDF and KNDF). 11/16
irrawaddy.com/in-person/inte…
Military’s strategy of ever more brutal violence to force EAOs back to negotiating table is deeply flawed. It is only increasing resistance, pushing them toward NUG. See Lay Kay Kaw, Loikaw fighting (a consequence of Christmas eve massacre). 12/16
abc.net.au/news/2021-12-2…
Protracted conflict is likely. There are already huge humanitarian needs in Myanmar. International actors need to recognise peace process is dead, focus on emergency humanitarian aid, and work closely with local implementing partners to reach those in need. 13/16
They should also recognise the significance of political negotiations between the CRPH/NUG and ethnic armed groups, and support cooperation where the two sides have found ways to work together in areas such as health and humanitarian aid. 14/16
Finally, an optimistic note – coup has brought about a dramatic (and positive) shift in relations between Bamar and ethnic minorities. It might be hard to see now but if harnessed this can help build a more peaceful and prosperous Myanmar. 15/16
If you got this far, congratulations – and here’s the report again in case anything I've said grabbed your interest. 16/16
crisisgroup.org/asia/south-eas…

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