Thread by @PZeniewski

The focus of Europe’s gas supply crunch has mostly been on storage levels, Russian imports, and LNG. That makes sense, because the crisis is an acute one, and is mainly due to supply problems. But what about the longer-term? What can be done to reduce future vulnerability? 1/10

Recognising the importance of storage is of course crucial, and supply diversity is likewise essential for security of supply. But demand has been less of a focus, except when we hear about curtailed factory output or gas-to-coal switching in the power sector.

Insofar as we talk about the medium-term, it's mostly about gas' essential role as a dispatchable, flexible source of power generation (esp. as renewables grow and coal/nuclear come offline)

But … what about buildings? After all, heating homes and offices is what increases Europe's gas demand during winter. I was curious about the seasonality of demand in Europe so I tried to estimate a breakdown.

Turns out, gas use in buildings – mainly to heat homes and buildings – is responsible for 50% of Europe’s gas demand during the winter, and overall gas demand is itself 50% higher in the winter than in summer.

There must be something that can be done other than recommendations to eat porridge to stay warm. Using electricity instead of gas (e.g. installing heat pumps) is a go-to solution. But efficiency is the big secret weapon here. Let's break things down.

If the EU delivers on its #Fitfor55 ambitions, building retrofit rates will double and gas use in buildings will fall by 30% by 2030, compared to 2021. This is faster than declines elsewhere (e.g. in power or industry), so it means the EU’s peak demand will also fall faster.

If the only thing we do in this decade is improve the efficiency of the EU's existing building stock (esp. in more temperate parts like Northwest Europe), then that alone knocks 20 bcm off winter heating demand in 2030. Today, that much gas costs EU households around €35 billion

20 bcm is about as much gas as Nord Stream I sends to Europe between November and March.

So yes, resolving the supply issues is important, and needs to be addressed now. But playing the long game means recognising that efficiency is the first fuel. The most secure gas molecule is the one you don’t need.