Eugene Ng Profile picture
Jan 13, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Significant short-term divergence between a company’s business performance and stock price is a feature of the stock market, not a bug.

Long-term returns only come to those who are willing to bear that short-term price volatility, and pay that admission fee when others won’t.
Examples of 5 charts to bring this point home:

(1) Zoom Video Communications $ZM
(2) Zscaler $ZS
(3) The Trade Desk $TTD
(4) Adobe Inc $ADBE
(5) CrowdStrike $CRWD
Short-term daily price performance almost always does significantly deviate from long-term business performance.

Be a business-focused investor, not a price-focused one.

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More from @EugeneNg_VCap

Sep 11, 2023
🧵 Sharing 43 of my favorite takeaways from the most @AcquiredFM Podcast of NVIDIA $NVDA: The Dawn of the AI Era with David Rosenthal @djrosent and Ben Gilbert @gilbert!

Thought it was a smashing podcast with a great balance of history, explanation, context, and well balanced bull / bear scenarios with good thoughts backed by sound logic.

Great job David and Ben! Go listen! Highly recommend!

Thanks @matter for the ability to highlight transcripts!
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1 | Issue with CPUs, one instruction at a time, GPUs, can execute many instructions concurrently Image
2 | GPU was already doing that with graphics, and now it could be done with Crypto, AI, accelerated computing Image
Read 44 tweets
Aug 24, 2023
Snowflake $SNOW 2Q24 Earnings 🌱

- Rev $674m +36% ↗️🟢
- GP $456m +41% ↗️ margin 68% +244 bps ✅
- NG EBIT $54m +210% 🚀 margin 8% +453 bps ✅
- NG Net Inc $80m +1642% 🚀 margin 12% +1099 bps ✅
- OCF $83m +29% ↗️ margin 12% -62 bps ↘️🔴
- FCF $69m +28% ↗️ margin 10% -59 bps ↘️🔴
𝗕𝗶𝘇 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀

- Net revenue retention 142% (from 151% in 1Q24) ⤵️🟡
- Cust 8,537 +25% ↗️🟢
- Cust >$1m Product Rev 402 +62% ↗️🟢
- Forbes 2000 639 +17% ↗️🟡
- RPO $3.5b (~57% cRPO) +30% ↗️🟢


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𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻 +𝟰𝟬𝟬𝗯𝗽𝘀

- Cloud agreement pricing, product improvements, scale and enterprise customer success Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 23, 2023
NVIDIA $NVDA 2Q24 Earnings 🚀

- Rev $13.5b +101% 🚀
- GP $9.5b +225% 🚀 margin 70% +2657 bps ✅
- EBIT $6.8b +1263% 🚀 margin 50% +4290 bps ✅
- NG EBIT $7.8b +155% 🚀 margin 58% +1205 bps ✅
- Net Inc $6.2b +843% 🚀 margin 46% +3603 bps ✅
- NG Net Inc $6.7b +148% 🚀 margin 50% +943 bps ✅
- OCF $6.4b +407% 🚀 margin 48% +2872 bps ✅
- FCF $6b +129% 🚀 margin 45% +535 bps ✅
Rev by Market Platform
- Total Rev $13.5b +101% 🚀 +88% QoQ ⤴️
- ⭐️ Data Center Rev $10.3b +171% 🚀 +141% QoQ ⤴️
- Gaming $2.5b +22% ↗️🟢 + 11% QoQ ⤴️
- Prof Visualization Rev $379m -24% ↘️🔴 +28% QoQ ⤴️🟢
- Automotive Rev $253m +15% YoY ↗️🟡 -15% QoQ ↘️🟠

Revenue by Segment
- Compute & Networking Rev $10.4b +166% 🚀 +133% QoQ ⤴️
- Graphics Rev $3.1b +11% ↗️🟡 +14%
Mgmt Guide - 3Q24

- Rev $16bn + 170% 🚀🟢
- GPM 71.5%
- OPEX $2.95b
- EBIT $8.5b (est)
Read 9 tweets
Aug 20, 2023
Tencent $TCEHY 2Q23 Earnings ⤴️
- Rev ¥149b +11% ↗️🟡
- GP ¥71b +22% ↗️ margin 47% +430 bps ✅
- Adj EBITDA ¥57b +27% ↗️ margin 38% +477 bps ✅
- NG EBIT ¥50b +37% ↗️ margin 34% +624 bps ✅
- NG Net Inc ¥39b +33% ↗️ margin 26% +426 bps ✅
- OCF ¥41b +14% ↗️ margin 27% +64 bps ✅
- FCF ¥30b +33% ↗️ margin 20% +325 bps ✅
𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗴𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁
- VAS Rev ¥74b +4% ↗️🟡
- Online Ad Rev ¥25b +34% ↗️🟢
- FinTech & Biz Svcs Rev ¥49b +15% ↗️🟢

- VAS (Social Network) Rev ¥74b +4% ↗️🟡
- VAS (Domestic games) Rev ¥32b ➡️🟠
- VAS (International games) Rev ¥13b +19% ↗️🟢 Image
𝗕𝗶𝘇 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀

- MAU (WeChat) 1.3b +1% QoQ ➡️🟠
- QQ Mobile MAU 571m -4% QoQ ⤵️🔴
- Fee-based VAS Subs 241m +7% QoQ ↗️🟡

𝗕𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁

- Net cash position ¥18b
- Listed Investee ¥435b ($60b)
- Unlisted Investees ¥347b ($48b)
- Market Cap ~ ¥3.1T

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗 ⤴️
Read 7 tweets
Aug 15, 2023
Sea Limited $SE 2Q23 Earnings ⤴️🟢
- Rev $3.1b +5% ↗️🟡
- GP $1.5b +33% ↗️🟢 margin 47% +982 bps ✅
- Adj EBITDA $510m ⤴️ margin 16% +3368 bps ✅
- EBIT $284m ⤴️ margin 9% +3760 bps ✅
- Net Inc $331m ⤴️ margin 11% +4234 bps ✅
- OCF $595m ⤴️ margin 19% +3573 bps ✅
𝗕𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗴𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲 & 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 ↗️🟢
- Rev $2.3b +32% ↗️
- GP $1.1b +149% 🚀 margin 46% +2133 bps ✅
- Adj EBITDA $271m +193% 🚀 margin 12% +639 bps ✅

(𝟭) 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲 ↗️🟢
- Gross Orders +10% QoQ ↗️🟢
- Rev $2.1b +21% ↗️🟢
- Marketplace Rev $1.9b +28% ↗️🟢
- Core Marketplace Rev (Txn+Ad) $1.2b +38% ↗️🟢
- VAS Rev $625m +11% ↗️🟡
- Adj EBITDA $150m ⤴️ margin 7% +4417 bps ✅
- Adj EBITDA (Asia) $204m ⤴️🟢
- Adj EBITDA (Others) -$54m ⤴️🟡
(𝟮) 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 ↗️🟢
- Rev $428m +53% ↗️🟢
- Adj EBITDA $137m ⤴️ margin 32% +7197 bps ✅
- EBIT $121m ⤴️ margin 28% +7225 bps ✅
- Total loans receivables $2bn ➡️ NCL $279m, 90D past due ~2%
- Provision for credit losses $153m +37% ↗️🟠 Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 8, 2023
Datadog $DDOG 2Q23 Earnings

- Rev $509m +25% ↗️🟢
- GP $408m +26% ↗️ margin 80% +18 bps ✅
- NG EBIT $106m +26% ↗️ margin 21% +5 bps ✅
- NG Net Inc $124m +48% ↗️ margin 24% +378 bps ✅
- OCF $153m +110% 🚀 margin 30% +1210 bps ✅
- FCF $142m +136% 🚀 margin 28% +1301 bps ✅
𝗕𝗶𝘇 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀

- Total Cust 26,100 +23% ↗️🟢
- Cust >$100K ARR 2,990 +24% ↗️🟢 (~85% of ARR)
- Mid-high 90s Dollar-based Gross Retention
- 120%+ Dollar-based Net Retention (expect Q3 <120%) ↘️🟠
- Billings $520m +31% ↗️🟢
- RPO $1.25b +42% ↗️🟢
- cRPO High +30s% ↗️🟢… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Mgmt Guide
- 3Q23 Rev $525m +20% ↗️🟡
- 3Q23 NG EBIT $102m
- 3Q23 Net Income $124m

- FY23 Rev $2.1b +23% (same)
- FY23 NG EBIT $400m (raised)🟢
- FY23 NG Net Income $470m (raised)🟢
- FY23 Capex 4% of Rev
Read 7 tweets

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