Fact Check: Does COVID-19 Lose 90 Percent Infectiousness in 20 Minutes?

"We should definitely be wary of any tabloid headlines using the paper to urge us back to the office prematurely"

A good summary

iflscience.com/health-and-med…

@IFLScience
2/ Short version:

- Lab preprint very interesting for scientists, doesn't make wild real-world claims

- Taken at face value, preprint results contradict lots of real-world epi data

- Nevertheless @Guardian did just that, as if lab preprint results were the truth in real world
3/ @Guardian article reprinted, exaggerated more elsewhere to say that airborne transmission doesn't matter

When we know that superspreading events are airborne & major importance (nature.com/articles/d4158…). 1 event (Wuhan wet market) gave us pandemic

4/ Curiously, lots of folks that have told us before that lab PEER-REVIEWED papers had not relevance to the real world, bc they were lab and not w/ people, are now trumpeting this lab PREPRINT as if it was truth for real world

Using it as twisted PR to continue to deny airborne
5/ There are VERY powerful forces that have resisted for 2 years accepting airborne transmission, despite damage

In particular govts. & businesses that much prefer to tell us to do INDIVIDUAL things, want to avoid anything THEY have to do that costs $$

6/ I explored the forces of denial in this thread. No doubt they are finding the misinterpretation of this preprint, and ignoring mountains of peer-reviewed evidence that prove airborne trans., very convenient:

7/ A thread where I discuss some ideas about what's going on. Others have as well, as noted in article on first tweet.

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More from @jljcolorado

14 Jan
1/ ¿Dónde y cómo es más probable contagiarse de covid-19?

Nuestro blog en @Conversation_E explicando el reciente artículo en @EnvSciTech, donde mostramos q el supercontagio se debe a aire compartido en interiores, "para todos los públicos"

theconversation.com/donde-y-como-e…
2/ Escrito por @trishgreenhalgh (Investigadora Médica en @UniofOxford y miembro de @theNAMedicine) con la q colaboramos para el artículo de @EnvSciTech, con contribuciones de @ShellyMBoulder, @ZheP_AtmChem, y un servidor.

Original English version here:

theconversation.com/heres-where-an…
3/ Si alguien quiere más detalles, leer el hilo q escribí explicando el artículo de @EnvSciTech:

Read 8 tweets
11 Jan
1H/ The new #COVIDHallofHumor

As many of your know we have started 2 ongoing threads of good and bad practices worldwide against COVID transmission

- #COVIDHallofShame:

- #COVIDBestPractices:
2H/ The good examples are much more fun to compile, but unfortunately there seem to be many more bad examples everywhere.

So inspired by tweet by @microlabdoc, I thought it may be good (at least for our mental health) to start a #COVIDHallofHumor

Pls submit by adding that tag
3H/ UK 🇬🇧: Here we see @microlabdoc demonstrating a new method to clean the air of viruses

Cheap and easy. Only need pins, a scarf, disinfectant wipes, and work that you really want to avoid for the next 30 min!



#COVIDHallofHumor
Read 8 tweets
9 Jan
@Teddybird @krishlex @YouTube @gideonlasco @DOHgovph @ntfcovid19ph @iamguidodavid @friaronwater @WHO Yes, after yelling at us when we met with them (@WHO and its IPC committee) on 3-Apr-2020, when we already had MORE evidence of airborne transmission than they did for large droplets or fomites. + ignoring us later

This article tells some of that story:

wired.com/story/the-teen…
@Teddybird @krishlex @YouTube @gideonlasco @DOHgovph @ntfcovid19ph @iamguidodavid @friaronwater @WHO But still a GREAT example that proves YOUR statement right: "You need be cautious with dogmatic statements be cause lives are lost when the science and interpretation of evidence is wrong"

It WAS a dogmatic statement, and lots of lives have been lost, bc @WHO's science was wrong
@Teddybird @krishlex @YouTube @gideonlasco @DOHgovph @ntfcovid19ph @iamguidodavid @friaronwater @WHO And to this day, that statement still has an impact, as people in the medical profession that have public health power, refuse to accept the evidence FULLY: 0 evidence for droplets or surfaces, overwhelming evidence for airborne (short & long range).

See:
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
@Teddybird @krishlex @YouTube @gideonlasco @DOHgovph @ntfcovid19ph @iamguidodavid @friaronwater @trishgreenhalgh @DFisman @CDCgov @Harvard Transmission in close proximity is dominated by short-range airborne transmission (aerosol inhalation) -- NOT droplets.

And most spaces worldwide (even the US) are poorly ventilated, as we can easily verify measuring CO2 (#covidCO2). So a lot of shared-room transmission
@Teddybird @krishlex @YouTube @gideonlasco @DOHgovph @ntfcovid19ph @iamguidodavid @friaronwater @trishgreenhalgh @DFisman @CDCgov @Harvard For example the Norway restaurant superspreading event for omicron led to 75% of the current omicron cases in that country. So clearly shared room transmission is major.

And 10% of cases --> 80-90% of transmission. Mostly shared room airborne superspread: nature.com/articles/d4158…
@Teddybird @krishlex @YouTube @gideonlasco @DOHgovph @ntfcovid19ph @iamguidodavid @friaronwater @trishgreenhalgh @DFisman @CDCgov @Harvard Some people argue that contact tracing results indicate that most transmission is in close proximity. But that's a circular argument. Contact tracing only investigates close proximity.

Like drunk person who only looks for keys below the streetlight (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlig…)
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
1/ LOS CASOS DE SUPERCONTAGIO LOS EXPLICA LA TRANSMISIÓN POR EL AIRE EN HABITACIONES COMPARTIDAS

Lo demostramos en nuestro paper (revisado por pares) en @EnvSciTech:

pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.102…

El modelo matemático funciona. Y "no hay nada más práctico q una buena teoría"
2/ Los casos de supercontagio son muy importantes para la pandemia (10% de contagiados --> 80-90% de nuevos casos).

Por ejemplo el caso del restaurante de Noruega con omicron es la causa del 75% de los casos actuales en ese país.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
3/ Hay muchos casos famosos de supercontagio

Por ejemplo el caso del restaurante de Guangzhou en China:

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 75 tweets
7 Jan
1/ SUPERSPREADING IS EXPLAINED BY SHARED-ROOM AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION

We can use that to estimate risk of transmission for omicron & other diseases

Our peer-reviewed paper was just published (open access) in @EnvSciTech

I'll explain it in this thread

pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.102…
2/ Some background first, for people who may not have seen this before:

We have known for a long time that airborne transmission is dominant for COVID-19. See this thread for some of the evidence base:

3/ The fact that airborne transmission is important is widely accepted in the scientific community

[except for some recalcitrant holdouts in IPC (infection prevention and control)]

But e.g. @WHO admits it clearly on its webpage:

who.int/news-room/ques…
Read 55 tweets

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