1/ Even with the Supreme Court invalidating the Biden vaccine mandate, large companies are likely to take matters into their own hands with “sticks” (versus “carrots”). Even with a “mild” variant, economic consequences are significant enough to impact corporate behavior 🧵
2/ With hospitalizations surging (with fewer deaths) among the unvaccinated, the bill will come due at some point — to the tune of $20,000+ per hospitalization.

3/ Beyond hospitalization costs, the higher case rates of unvaccinated people have implications for productivity loss due to absence along with short-term disability costs. Chart below shows the trend for NYC.
4/ Here are the three types of “sticks” I can see companies taking in the spirit of "enlightened self-interest":
* Strict(er) vaccine requirements for RTW, including boosters
* Health insurance premium surcharges
* Financial penalties for not getting vaccinated
5/ You only have to look at some of the companies that implemented vaccine mandates early on to see why others might do this. Beyond zero deaths, United Airlines reported zero hospitalizations among the 3,000 employees who have tested positive.

6/ Meta (FB) has gone further than most companies in requiring boosters to return to work. Would not be surprised to see other companies take this step.

7/ Financial penalties are not implausible either, given the preventability of these costs. Companies that do not want to cross-subsidize individual choices may put a higher cost burden on unvaxxed employees, similar to how smokers are treated.

8/ My back-of-the-envelope for the annual cost of subsidizing unvaxxed healthcare costs for a company with 1 million employees (e.g., Amazon, Walmart) is >$150 M/year. Does not include absentee costs or the longer-term impact of long COVID, which could dwarf these direct costs.
9/ The Quebec “unvaxxed tax” is not something I can imagine working in the US, but it is interesting to see how financial incentives drive behavior — in this case with first-dose vaccine appointments.

10/ I would bet actuarial tables at life insurance companies are churning to reflect the mortality and morbidity of COVID and that premiums will go up in the coming year.

11/ Vaccination is a personal choice, but it will likely be a choice that comes with economic consequences for those who choose to remain unvaccinated.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Myoung Cha

Myoung Cha Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @cha_myoung

10 Jan
1/ With the omicron wave putting untold pressure on staffing across a wide variety of industries, it is not inconceivable for these staffing shortages to become more “endemic” with behaviors that have likely changed forever. 🧵
2/ An estimated 5 million people are isolating at home due to omicron, which could “deal a significant hit to the economy over the next month or two.”

3/ In historical flu seasons, the current omicron-driven work absentee rate would be ~2x the average peak of workplace absence due to all illnesses in the US (largely flu).
Read 14 tweets
6 Jan
1/ One of the biggest policy failures over the last 2 years is the lack of COVID testing, particularly evident now with omicron — both the supply and the quality of what we have available at scale. Where is our Operation Warp Speed for diagnostics? 🧵
2/ Based on the sheer scale of testing volume, it’s clear many are concerned with exposure to omicron and are not yet “done with COVID”. Labs are reporting >1.5 million PCR tests per day right now. But this is a massive underestimate of the total volume w/antigen tests in the mix
3/ Based on recent disclosures, the leading antigen test kit mfg. production volumes right now are estimated to be ~120 M tests/month

@AbbottNews: 50 M/month
@QuidelDX: 70 M/month

This is ~4x the reported daily PCR volume with a clear hunger for even more from consumers.
Read 16 tweets
1 Jan
1/ There are a lot of takes that this omicron wave will bring us closer to “normal” in 2022 when COVID will become endemic and be “just like the flu.” A comparison with historical flu seasons shows just how far away this really is and how much longer we may need to go. 🧵
2/ The key societal question is what level of mortality & morbidity do we accept from COVID in the long run. If influenza is the right analogue, then this chart shows that COVID has broken well beyond the baseline and “epidemic” threshold of mortality of prior flu seasons.
3/ “Just like the flu,” you say?

Let’s drill into some US data:
* 11,707 weekly PIC (pneumo, influenza, COVID) deaths since Labor Day
* At the peak of Delta, ~18,000 weekly PIC deaths

This is 3-5x our pre-COVID flu baseline (~3,500 weekly deaths).

Read 18 tweets
29 Dec 21
1/ The great hope right now is that the orals from @pfizer and @Merck are the “silver bullet” that will bring an “end” to omicron and the pandemic. These are amazing new Rx’s, but deploying them properly will be way harder than people think. 🧵
2/ We now have another weapon in the toolkit with oral pills that do not have the same burdensome requirements of mAbs. ~90% risk reduction from Pfizer’s Paxlovid in high-risk patients is indeed excellent. pfizer.com/news/press-rel…
3/ The FDA EUA for Paxlovid specifies that the treatment must be administered within 5 days of symptoms. The name of the game here is speed: the longer the treatment start is from symptom onset, the less impact these orals will likely have.
Read 18 tweets
27 Dec 21
1/ Lots of questions on why I think we could be in the early part of the COVID decade. Tons of focus right now on omicron, but not many talking about the long game. This isn’t a deterministic prediction but a scenario very few policymakers are willing to talk about openly. 🧵
2/ At almost every turn of this pandemic, numerous experts have declared that the end of the pandemic is near, if we can only hold on for a few weeks or months. This has raised a lot of false hope over the last couple years.
3/ With omicron, some experts are declaring that this last wave will spell the end of the pandemic in 2022.
Read 22 tweets
24 Dec 21
1/ With the omicron surge, I have had more friends send me screenshots of exposure notifications (EN) in the last week than I have in the last year. Here are some reflections based on the work I led at @Apple working with @Google and some thoughts on the road ahead. 🧵
2/EN was one of the most exciting projects I have ever worked on with an unbelievable amount of technical talent at both companies deployed to deliver in a matter of months. (Recent gathering of a small subset of the crew below)
3/ As we worked on the effort, it became clear to me that public health agencies did not fully grasp the power of the technology as a way to massively augment more traditional NPIs.
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!