Thread by @cha_myoung

1/ Even with the Supreme Court invalidating the Biden vaccine mandate, large companies are likely to take matters into their own hands with “sticks” (versus “carrots”). Even with a “mild” variant, economic consequences are significant enough to impact corporate behavior 🧵

2/ With hospitalizations surging (with fewer deaths) among the unvaccinated, the bill will come due at some point — to the tune of $20,000+ per hospitalization.

healthsystemtracker.org/brief/unvaccin…

3/ Beyond hospitalization costs, the higher case rates of unvaccinated people have implications for productivity loss due to absence along with short-term disability costs. Chart below shows the trend for NYC.

4/ Here are the three types of “sticks” I can see companies taking in the spirit of "enlightened self-interest":
* Strict(er) vaccine requirements for RTW, including boosters
* Health insurance premium surcharges
* Financial penalties for not getting vaccinated

5/ You only have to look at some of the companies that implemented vaccine mandates early on to see why others might do this. Beyond zero deaths, United Airlines reported zero hospitalizations among the 3,000 employees who have tested positive.

washingtonpost.com/transportation…

6/ Meta (FB) has gone further than most companies in requiring boosters to return to work. Would not be surprised to see other companies take this step.

theverge.com/2022/1/10/2287…

7/ Financial penalties are not implausible either, given the preventability of these costs. Companies that do not want to cross-subsidize individual choices may put a higher cost burden on unvaxxed employees, similar to how smokers are treated.

hrexecutive.com/kroger-adds-pe…

8/ My back-of-the-envelope for the annual cost of subsidizing unvaxxed healthcare costs for a company with 1 million employees (e.g., Amazon, Walmart) is >$150 M/year. Does not include absentee costs or the longer-term impact of long COVID, which could dwarf these direct costs.

9/ The Quebec “unvaxxed tax” is not something I can imagine working in the US, but it is interesting to see how financial incentives drive behavior — in this case with first-dose vaccine appointments.

cnn.com/2022/01/12/ame…

10/ I would bet actuarial tables at life insurance companies are churning to reflect the mortality and morbidity of COVID and that premiums will go up in the coming year.

thecentersquare.com/indiana/indian…

11/ Vaccination is a personal choice, but it will likely be a choice that comes with economic consequences for those who choose to remain unvaccinated.