1⃣Signal: idea origination.
2⃣Filtering: To kill, watchList or research the idea
3⃣Research: DD
4⃣Portfolio Mgt: enter/exit, sizing
5⃣Portfolio Maintenance: continuous eval on/off ER seasons.
6⃣Execution
🧵 #Investing
Principles:
🟢Process is NOT static, it is a living one. I continuously evaluate/improve it. Thus welcome u feedback.
🟢Measurement is prerequisite to improvement - I try to measure each moving piece.
🟢Post mortem often, and embrace mistakes.
1⃣Signal-idea generation.
🟢I have 5-6 core areas and follow 8-12 stocks in each area. It is my organic idea gen source.
🟢events: macro data, insider buy, etc
🟢I follow like-minded(better) investors.
Signals are not equal. Ideal when multiple ones pointing to 1 stock.
2⃣Filtering
A process to quickly decide whether to kill the idea or add to watch list (mental db), or a deep dive.
Efficiency is key here - I set 4H (1/2 day), and usually a kill decision is made within first 2H.
3⃣ Research
My goal is to be informed, know its history, people, product, eco-systems, and try to delay having a view as much as possible.
When I read someone's thesis, I look for things that I am unware of. (that is also a tell sign if a 10 page thesis got nothing new to me)
4⃣ Portfolio Mgt
5 to 30 is a reasonable range for a 1 person shop. When I add a company to my portfolio, I prefer to slowly ramp up as I monitor the company (ER, conference, industry data). I like to see opportunity when price action deviates from biz results.
5⃣ Portfolio Maintenance
I am a long term investor, but I don't believe in #NeverSell.
Maintenance is to continue to evaluate/monitor my portfolio, and watch-list companies.
When my thesis breaks, I sell.
When a watch list co. offers more attractive oppo, I swap.
I can dive into details of each step. I would like to know what you are interested in, or have questions about. As always I appreciate your feedback.
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In a Chinese tech space talk this week, @SpecialSitsNews mentioned a special situation idea - $SOHU.
It took me back to memory lane.
We all know 🇨🇳 giants like:
3 BAT amigos $BIDU $BABA $TCHEY from 2000s
Newcomers $PDD $JD Tiktok from 2010-20s
Who is $SOHU?
time for a 🧵
1/ $SOHU, together with Sina (went private), and Netease ($NTES), were 1st generation Chinese internet giants at the turn of the 21st century.
Its current core businesses include:
✅online media/video/RE
✅online game changyou.com
✅Search
2/ Start with the person.
✅He was considered the Godfather of the Internet in China
✅Pony Ma said he was inspired by him to build QQ and later Tencent empire
✅He still led the company he founded 25Y+ ago and is the largest shareholder.
2/7 .utility, the heavy lifting framework is done and available to all.
✅ the real ratio of whether one can measure loan risk accurately, and price loan competitively is net interest for the whole portfolio, adjust for loss/provision, whether it is a platform or an underwriter
3/7 ✅ $UPST might argue as a platform, net interest is not applicable to us. IMO, when one competes for consumer loans, the ability to price risk accurately is the key, and the best ratio to show is net interest adjusted for loss.