Thread by @meistefan1

Conclusions from this week negotiations with Russia: First, Moscow has a maximalist approach, Lavrov today made again clear, that the US cannot pick of the menu what they like to discuss with Russia, but they have to accept the whole package. That means, either yes or no!

Second, while the collective West wants to start a negotiation process on arms control, security gurantees and trust building, Russia exactly wants no process at all anymore but by the US confirmed security gurantees plus the acceptance of its sphere of influence in Europe.

Third, this is not about negotiations and meeting in the middle, but an ultimatum at gunpoint. Russian leadership understands, that they will not get most of the demands, that is impossible for the US and NATO. That means, it does not want a result in the end, but an escalation.

Fourth, this blackmailing servers rather the purpose of stablizing the regime from inside through an enemy paradigm and possible escalation with the West, than serious and responsible negotiations. It confirms, Putins Russia is a spoiler power, not a responsible global actor.

Fifths, escalation seems to be preprogrammed, but cannot step back without getting something if he does not want to lose face. Ukraine is too big to conquere, so a smaller attack is more likely and other things like exercises, cyber attacks and further blackmailing of neigbhors.

Sixth, Germany is with the new governement no player at all. For Russia, Normandy format is dead, Moscow wants only to talk about Donbas with Washington. The arguments of some Social democrats, to separate Nord Stream 2 and Russian military build up is a self-deception.

Moscow exatly links both and Germany undermines with this argument the Western bargaining position and Ukraines security. It will further divide the Greens and the Social Democrates and undermines Germany as a reliable leader in Europe. Germany does not lead the EU at the moment.

These are very bad news, for the collective West and very good news for Mr Putin. He will not only be able to further increase the split in the German governement coaltion but also EU member states and transatlantic relation: Beeing nice to Scholz and not so nice to Baerbock.