Can't go a day without someone saying Russia going to invade Ukraine and nothing the Biden admin can do to stop it.
And the media is happy to paint the situation as an evil attempt on Putins part to take over a sovereign nation despite US's own record.
Whatever you think of Putin, I hope we can all agree he is not a stupid person. Like him or hate him, he has been an extremely effective leader. And has probably played the hand he was dealt better than any of his peers. And even the f'ing birds respect him.
Part of this theory for the imminent invasion of Ukraine is bc Biden is weak and Europe is in an inflationary energy crisis. And with Europe dependent on Russian Natural gas to keep warm, the timing is good for Russia.
But is it?
It's already the middle of January.
Winter lasts another 2 months. Maybe 3.
Not too much longer before the Nat Gas card starts to lose at least some of it's value as the ice in Europe starts to thaw.
Also, a cold winter is always seen as a negative for Europe. But isn't it also a negative for any military action? Do you think Putin doesn't know history? I seem to remember a little something about a war that was fought on the Russian border in the middle of winter.
The longer he waits to ensure a sunny day for his tank parade the less valuable (at least in short term) his natural gas card becomes. So while it's certainly not impossible, it's not as if Putin doesn't have any challenges in his way. He's got a few ups and downs to consider.
And what about first half of the #DragonBear as described by @vtchakarova
Isn't China throwing a big party next month?
Is Putin really going to ruin his best friends plans right before the opening ceremonies?
That's only slightly less rude then peeing in the Champagne.
Could wait until after closing ceremonies similar to what he did after Sochi. But wouldn't have the same element of surprise as last time. And again, the longer he waits, the less effective the gas card becomes. So...what to do...what to do...
In meantime, don't forget there is already a coalition threatening to sanction Russia. Does Putin care about sanctions? I think he cares but he would never admit it. And I'm sure there's a part of him that would just react like this if the coalition tried to tell him what to do.
The better play IMO would be to wait. Let some of the chatter die down. Play it off as more Western propaganda and fear mongering. Let the West think they stared you down and won. And let them get back to their reality shows & tik tok videos.
Then in the late summer...early fall...when the rest of the world thinks you are on vacation & eating ice cream, you hatch your plan.
As the skies start to get a little less blue, and the winds start to change, and the seasonal Nat Gas prices just barely start to rise, thats when you fail to meet a delivery of energy. And of course you say it was just an accident...a miscommunication...
And then as NG prices rise a bit more, the US is gearing up for mid term elections and attention is focused elsewhere...but it is still sunny enough for your parade, you start make your move towards the border. You say its just a normal defensive move against Nato expansion.
And then another delivery is missed.
Europe & Ukraine are like "What the hell, its starting to get cold." And Putin is like "its gone".
And then, if he decided to, that would be time to move in. Bc Ukraine's allies would be focused elsewhere, Ace card would be rising in value and would be harder for resistance to hold out heading into dead of winter. And those few who had been paying attention would be like...
And of course this is all just speculation as I'm sure whatever the various options are Putin has already war gamed them out and knows it a hundred times better than I ever will.

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More from @SantiagoAuFund

Oct 8, 2021
When I moved to NY in the late 90s I often took the subway bc I didn’t have money to ride around in cabs and town cars all the time. So the 6 Train doubled as my limousine and Grand Central Station doubled as my garage.
In May 1999 I was fortunate to be hired by Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette for their Wall Street training program. This was very convenient because the DLJ offices were just two blocks from my garage.
I was not due to report until mid August. So quit my current job & took off for Europe. Spent summer walking across Spain to Santiago de Compostela to secure my ticket into Heaven. Thought I might come in handy as my trip was scheduled to end in Ibiza…🤫😎
Read 25 tweets
Jul 25, 2021
If China bails out the US by proving PPE bc we don’t make enough masks, ventilators and other protective equipment ourselves, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If China bails out Bangladesh bc they borrowed too much money and are now in Default, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
If Russia bails out a freezing cold Europe by providing natural gas that Europe can’t make on its own, who has the upper hand in that scenario?
Read 8 tweets
Feb 14, 2021
For anyone who is interested...or anyone who just thinks I don't understand, am going to get rekt, need to do research or want to have fun staying is the white paper I wrote on #Bitcoin a few years ago.

Read 9 tweets
Feb 10, 2021
Two definitions of money, both faith based:

1. The most marketable commodity (the most marketable bc have faith based on its history that it will retain its value)

2. That which the Gov demands in tribute (you have faith if don’t pay your taxes in it the gov will jail you)

One can argue that #2 above...actually leads to Govs fiat money becoming #1 above.

Regardless, all money is ultimately faith based. At their core, they are confidence games.

Once the confidence is gone, regardless of the reason, so is the value of the money/currency.

In this way, money/currency, is very much like a religion.
The more that believe, the stronger it is.
The stronger it is, the longer it lasts.
The longer it lasts, the harder it is to unseat/replace.
It’s like the network effect.

Read 7 tweets
Aug 30, 2020
Hi everyone.
Based on recent comments/twitter posts/ email, vm, dm & twitter stream have been inundated with questions about, & challenges to, my assertions regarding QE being "deflationary" rather than "inflationary"

Many extremely smart & successful people (many of whom I like & respect) disagree with me.


As such, I have been asked for "Proof" or my "Source" to back up my assertions.

The "Smoking Gun" per se...

I'll attempt to answer this as clearly as possible below

Some clarification:

The assertions aren't to say QE is "never" inflationary.

Or "can't" be inflationary.

The assertion is that it's "not currently" inflationary.

It needs cooperation from commercial banks in form of credit extension (which isn't currently happening).

Read 25 tweets
Aug 24, 2020
Ok...anyone want to hear a story that nothing to do with dollars, gold or bank reserves?
Well too bad...
Because this week is the 30th anniversary of one of the top 5 moments of my life.
And I'm feeling old.
And sentimental.
I grew up in a small town of 1,000 people on the edge of the sandhills in western Nebraska. Many of my friends came from families that were farmers or ranchers. And everybody loved football.
I did too. As a little kid I wanted to play quarterback for @HuskerFBNation (like Turner Gill) and then for the @steelers (like Terry Bradshaw).
Every day at recess we played football.
And every play was a Hail Mary pass...
Read 29 tweets

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