Thread by @gwensnyderPHL

I don't think collapse/civil war are inevitable, but folks need to understand that the next big reckoning is going to happen when MAGA folks start trying to make sense of their disproportionate experience of COVID death and resulting demographic fallout.

https://twitter.com/TheRelay1/status/1482479180298215425

The voluntarily unvaccinated are at this point overwhelmingly white, which is going to bump up the timeline on whites becoming a minority here.

MAGA folks are going to feel threatened by that and also aren't going to want to take responsibilty for the death of loved ones.

As I've said before, I think it's pretty much inevitable that we'll see a (further) mainstreaming of white genocide conspiracy theory, this time even more explicitly centered around supposed governmental plots to exterminate white people (with COVID as the supposed instrument).

They won't call it "COVID" in all likelihood, because that would be admitting error.

So it'll likely be a recycling of other conspiracy theories QAnon has helped pile together, something like "the government is deliberately mass murdering white people with 5G" or something.

There are going to be a lot of these folks mourning and looking for someone to blame other than themselves, and the idea that the (Democrat-run) government did it is going to be very appealing to them.

These folks are already armed to the teeth.

They've already shown themselves to be highly susceptible to misinformation, and they'll be angry and looking to lash out over the death.

They'll be ripe targets for fascist accelerationists looking to inspire terror.

They aren't necessarily going to trust a GOP government, either.

More likely than not, some will decide "globalists" (read: Jews) secretly run the whole show and decide terror and/or armed insurrection is the only solution.

All of this feels pretty inevitable at this point.

We're likely going to see escalated terror against governmental and Jewish targets, and we're definitely going to see the far right ramp up attacks on abortion/birth control even further in an effort to shore up white majority.

The big unknown is how many folks will be radicalized towards supporting or committing terror/insurrection, and that depends largely on organization, leadership, and black swan events like the pandemic.

They aren't terribly organized, but that could change.

Other than Trump (who is damaged goods), they don't have an obvious strongman to rally around, but that could change, too.

And finally we just don't know what is going to happen with the pandemic, or natural disasters, or other big and relatively unpredictable events.

There's only so much we can forecast.

What we do know is that there is very predictable (further) mass radicalizatiom on the far right, and that will almost certainly result in (further) escalated terror and insurrectionist violence.

There are going to be a lot of sparks flying near a very big powder keg.

There's one very obvious way that could end-- the powder keg explosion that would be civil war-- but also a lot of other possibilities, all of them involving very dangerous fires.

We just don't know.

Bottom line: things are scary, but civil war isn't inevitable (yet).

If we recognize the threat, organize, aggressively target misinfo/disinfo/fascist agit-prop, & shore up collapse where it's preventable by rigorously countering the pandemic, we could tamp a lot of sparks.

The first step is recognizing the enormity of the threat, though.

And it deeply troubles me that we're still not there.

Not even close.