1. In a very tense period in the Baltic and in Ukraine, Russian state influenced media is not beating the war drums. IMO reporting does not evidence propaganda typically expected if preparing the population for a war especially one that will directly impact the Russian economy.
2. @kommersant lede: "Russian Ambassador Antonov: Negotiations with the US and NATO have not yet yielded a significant result. Russia will decide on the advisability of further work with the US and NATO after written responses to draft
3. agreements on security guarantees, said Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov. He noted that last week's discussions with the United States and NATO had not yielded any significant results so far."

This is a very weak statement to have as the headline and may evidence
4. Putin is out on a limb having written a check that Gerasimov can't cash.
5. Sunday news in Moscow shows little evidence that Putin is preparing for war. I also note that US is not showing any overt ISR activity with the caveat that they can operate invisible to commercial flight radar sites. Putin's bizarre play failed. He's now threatening to put
6. nukes in Cuba. I read that as his possible end game to get out of the mess his foolish Ukraine play has set in motion by calling it even. He and his Oligarchs fear this play will have long-term consequences. This is the time when it would be smart to make demands on Putin.
7. Make him get out of Ukraine or @POTUS should signal support for the NordStream2 sanctions bill that should effectively kill NS2. We have proven we can keep Europe supplied with LNG. Doubling the size of the US LNG fleet in two years
8. with the higher gas prices creating a push for US and global production can effectively destroy Putin's only leverage and push Russia into a permanent economic decline, social unrest and eventual overthrow of the Oligarchs.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Jan 15,
1. IMO when [@facebook @Meta] & [@Google @Youtube] organize content to push propaganda knowingly causing death & injury they're not acting as benign passthroughs under Section 230 but are publishers the same as a paper's editorial staff who gathers stories to make a front page.
2. The plaintiff's bar needs to begin actions to seek to impose personal civil liability on the board members, management and software engineers of these companies to make them pay joint and severally over $1 trillion dollars in damages caused by these companies whose book value
3. IMOI is now in negative numbers but the insolvency is not being reported to the @SECGov. The audit committee members should be the first to be sued. Plus we should identify the software engineers who are facilitating the mayhem that these companies are causing and put them on
Read 4 tweets
Jan 15,
1. Russian propaganda is pushing via usual amplifiers the idea that world LNG production can't fill in for Russian gas if it shuts off gas to Europe. First, if Russia does that the country will fall into a massive depression and with other sanctions likely erupt in civil unrest.
2. But with the price rise, supply will increase to fill the demand. A US subsidy based on a de facto state of war with Russia and an Art 5 obligation to defend our allies, can destroy the Russian economy for less than $1trillion. Cheaper than fighting a hot war and in two years
3. Russia will be burning from civil unrest and Putin's Oligarchs will be the target. It's like someone putting a gun to their own head and saying, "Don't move or I'll shoot." Do it Vova. I dare you.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14,
1. I'm a bit confused about the Rhodes case and the status of his indictment. The document we saw appeared to be filed in the earlier filed Oath Keepers case but that's not the case docket number of Rhodes in Plano USDC. There are missing dockets in DC
2. including the DC file number in Rhodes' Plano docket. The manner in which the cases are being kept off the DC CM/ECF system, not just sealed, is consistent with my analysis that the court is reacting to a Russian hack of the system I spotted a few years ago.
3. I would not be surprised if the case filed against Rhodes is one of several filings that are teed up to be unsealed soon. And I remain at over 50% that Putin's insanity in Ukraine is the result of what he knows is coming in the DC court because he's got eyes and
Read 6 tweets
Jan 13,
1. Based on the civil docket, I make Rhodes as an Oath Keeper. He appears to be represented by Juli Zsuzsa Haller who I think is also representing Oath Keepers in criminal cases. @maddow @MaddowBlog
2. As I have reported, the Govt has full cooperation agreements with an Oath Keeper and a Proud Boy that both included authority for witness protection. I think this may be what everyone has been waiting for and it required old-fashioned prosecution techniques to build the case.
3. Well worth the wait. justice.gov/opa/press-rele… Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 6,
1. I don't think similar tone and tenor of Merrick Garland and @JoeBiden's speeches were a coincidence. The counter-intelligence investigation nobody saw but that was easy to predict has likely concluded. People swept up by it may have been caught by an initial FISA order
2. directed at Rudy Giuliani that would authorize electronic and other intercepts related to anyone he had contact with and, were they were shown to be working as an agent of a foreign power, like Giuliani, other orders could issue and expand the circle to encompass many of TFG's
3. seditionist army. I would expect that the grand jury can now hear the evidence from these intercepts, that would be admissible in court, of TFG's co-conspirators incriminating themselves. The one thing that the obsession with Carter Page and his FISA did is break the
Read 5 tweets
Jan 6,
1. Thus far, I've seen no proof that the Russian forces reportedly being sent to Kazakhstan have arrived in Almaty that is the scene of violent clashes. Here is an example of the Russian air traffic that is reporting on the Radar sites. They planes don't appear to be going
2. very far into Kazakhstan and are focused on this NW region of the border near Russia. At first I thought it was a staging operation but I think it is also possible that they are being sent there to guard something that was likely left over from the Soviet Union's collapse:
3. All of Russia's SS-18 Satan ICBMs in area where the post-Soviet Russian border seems to have taken a bite out of Kazakhstan. About 40% of Russian ballistic missile nuclear warheads. And I think this is could be the real reason why Russia's Def. Min. Shoygu called the @SecDef.
Read 5 tweets

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