COVID Update: Why I still don’t want to get COVID, thanks. 1/
I like parties as much as anyone but an omicron party doesn’t do it for me.

Messing around with a contagious disease is like playing with matches at the gas station. 2/
I don’t want COVID. But even more than that, I don’t want to give someone COVID.

If I get it, I could be contagious before I even know I’m sick. 3/
And if I got sick and got my wife, Lana sick, who would bring me chicken soup and show me the sympathy I so desperately deserve when I’m not feeling well?

Oh yeah. Plus I don’t want to get her sick because that’s the great husband I am. 4/
“Let her rip” sounds like a strategy but it’s really the absence of a strategy. The virus is already ripping. The question is what we’re doing about it. 5/
This is one of the most contagious respiratory viruses in history. Let’s say it’s only as bad as the flu for vaccinated people.

I ask you— what kind of people are comfortable spreading the flu. 6/
When you have the flu, you know it. And unless you really don’t care about others, you stay home.

With COVID, since it can spread asymptomatically, we have to be more careful & wear masks when it’s everywhere. And it’s everywhere. 7/
And if you infect others, some may have a flu like reaction. Some may barely get sick.

And others will have a pre-existing condition, be unable to get vaccinated, or have a weakened immune system. COVID can seriously endanger them. 8/
Even if it ends up being a bad flu for those of us vaccinated, sorry but I don’t really want to get the flu. (See tweet 4.)

I don’t go to a lot of “flu parties.” But that’s me. 9/
Of course there’s no guarantee it will be the flu. This virus is still mysterious. 15 months later our son is still having intermittent symptoms.

Of course there’s no guarantee of not getting COVID— even if we’re careful. Most of us take risks to see family, friends & do certain things.

But minor temporary inconveniences like a mask or a test or meeting outdoors make those things safer. 11/
Cases will begin to subside in this wave and the vaccine will have done a remarkable job despite all these viral mutations from omicron. Thee vast majority who get COVID will be fine as a result. 12/
In the meantime, to those who say “it’s inevitable” that we get COVID, it probably is for them.

But despite this, it’s still ok to say no thanks, I’d rather not.

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More from @ASlavitt

Jan 14,
COVID Update: One thing I’m glad about— the people who think the pandemic should focus on paying people not to get vaccinated aren’t in charge.

From DeSantis to Rand Paul, nearly daily there’s a reminder of the difference between the first year of the pandemic and now. 1/
We have many challenges facing us in responding to the pandemic. But the contrast in how Biden is responding ,when I see the people who want the pandemic to be over but will only act to elongate it lead, I’m only grateful they’re not in charge. 2/
It is true we don’t have enough tests to handle the crush of new cases per day.

But while Joe Biden runs towards the problem w a billion free tests, a new testing czar & 8 free tests/person/month, Roger Marshall thinks the priority should be Tony Fauci’s financial statements. 3/
Read 22 tweets
Jan 8,
COVID Update: We now understand the difference between a wave and a tsunami.

What I’ve tried to understand is how big it gets & what things look like afterwards. 1/
When the scales of the graph have to change, things that look big begin to look small by comparison. But this graph is about to get outdated… 2/
A number of experts are writing that the actual number of cases in the US is now 4-5x the reported cases.

In the past the assumption was it was more like twice the reported cases.

Why? 3/
Read 25 tweets
Jan 6,
I am still doing my best to try to understand the meaning of the events January 6, 2021.

I think January 6 . . . .
was a day of martyrs, of heroes, of victims, of villains, and of clowns…and in votes taken soon after, many of the victims turned into clowns
was yet another reminder that the things we take for granted are not promised to us, they are earned
Read 12 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
Roller coasters give us fewer twists & turns than we’ve had in the last 2 years. 1/
Coming to grips with each new reality of the virus itself as we experience it— contagiousness, illness, symptomatic spread— is hard enough.

Yet each time we do, it seems to make new versions with different features an ever harder adjustment. 2/
We have seen a string of new news over 2 years that still manages to surprise as much as the first wave itself. It’s deadliness has been replaced by its fitness as perhaps its most enduring feature. 3/
Read 23 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
COVID Update: Tens of millions could get COVID in the US this winter omicron wave.

What are the chances of getting infected during this wave? How much different from “normal” pandemic times?

Let me try some basic math. This isn’t big math with log scales but the kind where the numbers are round enough because there are enough assumptions to make precision feel false. 2/
There are 250,000 recorded daily infections now. Actual estimates are that it’s actually about 4x higher counting for rising test positivity, test shortages & at home tests. IHME projects well over 1 million/day. 2/…
Read 18 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
COVID Update: I’ve interviewed well over 100 experts now. With omicron, the graphs & opinions are many but the truths are muddled.

There are plenty of contradictions including 8 important ones. In that muddy world, 2022 will be shaped by differing circumstances & 3 attitudes. 1/
1. Some of the scientists I respect the most, like @DrTomFrieden & @Farzad_MD are expressing doubts that with omicron, efforts to prevent contagion are realistic.

Yet, there are many of us who have worked hard to avoid COVID & don’t want to stop now. 2/
2. Omicron, either because of our T cell response, vaccination rates, inherent challenges in spreading to the lungs, or some combination is less likely to put any one of us in the hospital.

Yet hospitals will be swamped because enough people will still get sick. 3/
Read 25 tweets

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