Thread by @Teri_Kanefield

This is where I trip up.

Nobody really thought that those forged electoral certificates would have "fooled" anyone at the National Archives.

Suppose Pence had declared Trump the winner, what then?

Would a few hundred million Americas just say, okay cool?

1/

https://twitter.com/AshaRangappa_/status/1482395801485729796

But how would that work? Who would make up the two armies?

One side would be the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other white power militia groups.

They couldn't win unless the US military joined them, so really, it would be a military coup.

https://twitter.com/adrianamblack/status/1482853043964108802

2/

But under the insurrection act, the military would still have to be willing to keep Trump in power beyond January 20, the date, under the constitution, his presidency ends . . .

. . . which would make it a military coup.

3/

https://twitter.com/warrenbowman/status/1482852912975925249

Right, but think about how big this country is and how many people would be in the streets if the military kept Trump in power after January 21.

Think how many military officers would have to be willing to shoot American civilians . . .

4/

https://twitter.com/timfblogger/status/1482853768349855745

This was a complex, far-reaching conspiracy to overturn the United States government instigated by the highest levels in the White House and joined by members of Congress.

It was dangerous and unhinged.

It could have created major chaos and turmoil and bloodshed.

5/

Trump was trying anything and everything to stay in power: Spreading lies, challenging results, trying to intimidate Congress through force.

It's staggering that an American president actually attempted it and managed to incite an actual attack on Congress.

6/

The idea that the Supreme Court would have kept Trump in power after January 20 was similarly deluded.

https://twitter.com/insighthappens/status/1482856468525326345

Under the Constitution, Trump's term ended on January 20. IF the outcome of the election was uncertain, the interim president would be Nancy Pelosi.

7/

People say we came "close" to the Trump coup succeeding.

I guess that depends on how you define "succeed."

If succeed means "stay in power after January 20," I'm not seeing that.

If succeed means creating maximum carnage and chaos, there certainly could have been more.

8/

I think Trump is deluded enough so that his actual goal was to remain in power.

I also think the long-term danger is that Trump has now taught right-wing radicals how to undermine democracy.

(In the first tweet, I meant Americans, not Americas)

https://twitter.com/MttyC/status/1482857355054182402

9/

I agree that the question really is how much chaos and bloodshed would have been generated before Trump was removed from the White House.

What makes Trump dangerous is precisely the fact that he doesn't care how many people die horrible deaths.

https://twitter.com/chichirobado/status/1482858403131113476

10/

There were a lot of moving parts, but each part was delusional.

The Rhodes et al indictment for seditious conspiracy indicates that these guys truly thought they'd overthrow the US government with about $15K worth of guns and ammo.

11/

https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1481722333991604226

In this piece, I concluded that the plan in the Eastman memo would never have worked.

Even if Pence had agreed to go along with this scheme — which he didn’t — the plan would have gone off the rails because there were no "alternate" electors.

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…

12/

People are suggesting that the goal under the Eastman plan ⤵️was to throw the vote to the state delegates, where Republican delegations outnumber Democratic -- so Trump wins.

That doesn't work because the conditions for throwing the vote to the states were not met.

13/

That's why I say that if Pence had tried, Congress would have erupted in chaos.

In other words, the idea that the members of Congress would go off and meeekly vote as if there were actually competing electors is absurd.

There would have been mass chaos but no voting.

14/

The idea that the Supreme Court would step in and overturn an election that wasn't even close is also absurd.

If the Courts wanted to hand Trump the election, they had their chance with the "fraud" lawsuits, which they rejected.

They just weren't going to do it.

15/

Ha! Well, I don't know much about military strategy, but the plan outlined in the sedition conspiracy indictment was pretty ridiculous. They could have done a lot of damage . . . but overthrow the US government?

One of those guys has a Yale law degree.

https://twitter.com/NoahProoval/status/1482873817127137292

I argued that to work, the military would have had to intervene on Trump's behalf.

There is another way it could have worked: If enough Americans went along with the charade, including Nancy Pelosi and the other members of Congress, officials at the National Archives . . .

. . . and most journalists. Almost everyone would have had to smack their foreheads and say, "Pence is right! We do have alternate electors! These states ARE in dispute."

Members of Congress would have had to say, "Well because Pence is right, we'd better go vote."

After all, isn't this what Trump does?

He signals the lie that everyone is supposed to tell, and everyone is supposed to fall in line with his made-up version of reality.

I talked about that here:

https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1481656244943261698

Whether Trump really is deluded enough to think that would have happened, I leave to the psychologists.

But I don't believe there would be a massive forehead slap across the country: "Those alternate electors even have certificates! I guess the election is in dispute after all!"

Right. That was the plan.

Having a plan doesn't mean it would have worked. SCOTUS wasn't going to make Trump a dictator.

It was dangerous and unhinged and scary. But it would have failed. The question was: how much chaos and carnage before the failure?

https://twitter.com/brad_style/status/1483117276761149443

And keeping Trump in power past January 20, the date under the Constitution that his term ended, would have made him a dictator. Nothing at that point would have stopped him.

The Supreme Court knows that. The Courts rejected the "fraud" lawsuits. They weren't going along.

I come to the same conclusion.

Someone else suggested that he was so disgruntled by the idea of being a "loser" he was willing to burn it all down.

It was unhinged and dangerous and could have been much bloodier, but he wouldn't have stayed in office.

https://twitter.com/BenVernia/status/1483119164281733125

Someone asked, "What if the pressure calls to the states worked?"

Remember, the election didn't come down to a single state and a few hundred votes. A number of states would have had to say, "Look at that! We found more votes!"

The courts and everyone would have to go along.

Remember, this was AFTER all of those recounts and after the courts rejected the election fraud cases.

Pelosi, across the country: "Well, dang! Look at that. Republicans in 7 states said they found new votes so the courts and election totals were all wrong!"

I'm not saying it wasn't dangerous and unhinged and deluded. A lot more people could have died. There could have been massive carnage.

But without military intervention, Biden would be the next president.

This, also.

Congress, "Look at that! Those 7 states found new votes for Trump, but we were al fairly elected."

Courts, Pelosi, Americans, "Well, what do you know? I guess Trump won. We'd better prepare for his inauguration."

https://twitter.com/reidspr/status/1483124179348058112

I combined this thread with the previous thread I did analyzing the seditious conspiracy indictment into a blog post, here: terikanefield.com/seditious-cons…

People saying "nobody would be in the streets" were not paying attention to the George Floyd protests.

The 2020 election also doesn't compare to 2000. This time the counting was completed and courts said no fraud.

Plus, this election wasn't close.

Because of what this Supreme Court has done, I have confidence that it would not go along with a charade to overturn an election and create a dictator, which is what would happen if Trump was kept in office after Jan. 20.

Trump lost in court on the election fraud cases . . .

. . .if the courts wanted to hand Trump the election, that was the way to do it.

This court held that the president doesn't have "absolute immunity."

I don't believe 5 justices would agree that Pence has the power to pick the next president or would uphold forged certificates.

5 justices would have to agree to render themselves completely powerless, which would be what would happen if Trump remained in office.

Right now, they have a lot of power.

If Trump was a dictator, they would be in constant danger. Even a cynic would agree they won't do that.

The last few tweets were a response to this:

https://twitter.com/ThomasJAndre/status/1483154600693624832

(I meant to include it. I flunk cut and paste)