Look at this figure. There are 3 main reasons why it looks the way it does:

1) Vaccines work
2) Immunity from prior Covid
3) Less lung involvement with omicron
ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-…
Of these 3 reasons, one is easily available and provides great protection: Vaccines

It has a big impact in reducing risk of severe disease during this omicron wave everywhere.
Prior Covid also offers protection. But vaccines augment that protection even more.

Omicron may have lesser propensity for lung involvement, but it's not zero. We see people getting seriously ill. We see deaths. It's luck of the draw. The risk is not worth it.
The high transmissibility of omicron spells trouble just from the sheer number of cases.

You can see how even in Israel where 53% of the population is boosted, patients in hospital and ICUs climb to prior wave levels when cases are so high.
Finally, while I'm grateful that deaths & hospitalizations are lower relative to cases, omicron doesn't affect only those it infects. It affects us all. A rapid rise in cases overwhelms hospitals & affects care for all other illnesses. HCW infections leads to staff shortages.
Why are breakthrough infections occurring after vaccination?

Partly because vaccine efficacy especially after 2 doses wanes. It still protects a lot against severe disease but infections occur. And partly because the virus has mutated a lot & has become vaccine evasive.
This is the same reason why prior Covid doesn't prevent infections either. Countries with high prior Covid rates are still getting high omicron rates.

Hard to predict the future. But I hope we don't run into variants like omicron and delta again. It's exhausting.

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More from @VincentRK

Jan 15,
A lot of questions to my recent tweet on South Korea ask how did they do so well?

Its a combination of great talent & leadership, uniform non-politicized messaging, border control, effective test/trace system, high compliance with masks, distancing, & vaccination.

A strategy.
Many replies I got say it best. And I'll highlight some of them.
Test and trace early on combined with border control established a system that has been sustained for 2 years.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 14,
Omicron who?

South Korea continues to be the role model. I hope they can sustain their science driven strategy which so far has saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
It's Korean American Day. 👏🎉
Even if Omicron causes a problem in South Korea, they have already won. At this point 93% of adults are fully vaccinated. Over 40% have been boosted. So their deaths and hospitalizations will stay much lower than here.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 13,
If you act like everyone is going to get omicron anyway, you will get omicron.

If you take precautions & try your best not to get omicron, you may not get it.

If we take precautions, we can also delay infections. We prevent hospitals from being so totally overwhelmed.
Hospitals getting overwhelmed means it's harder to provide care for all other illnesses as well. @Craig_A_Spencer google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.…
This is an excellent summary by @Craig_A_Spencer Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11,
It's a good day to remind people that the "Great" Barrington Declaration actually said this.... and that too in Oct 2020 when we didn't have vaccines.

We know what happened since to places that followed this philosophy. Image
Yes. I did say this was a terrible idea then. It was reckless in my opinion.
"Society as a whole enjoys the protection..."

Right. We had 10 million cases then in the US. 60 million now.
225,000 deaths then, over 825,000 deaths now. So much for "protection offered to the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity".
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11,
From a low of 70,000 to over 700,000 cases a day in less than 2 months.

A >10 fold increase in daily new cases in the US. #Omicron @OurWorldInData
If you had told me in October that we would have >700,000 cases a day in Jan, I would have categorically said, no way.

Covid continues to humbles us.
Unfortunately as a result of this dramatic increase, we are facing a crisis in hospitals across the country.
Vaccines are greatly reducing risk of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths during Omicron wave. Please get vaccinated and boosted.

In the US: 3 doses minimum ages 12 and older. And 4 doses for immunocompromised.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10,
Looks like communication is a problem area for health care agencies. So I have made a list of talking points for them.

1. Omicron is a serious threat because it is highly transmissible, more than any previous variant, and too many people will get it too fast.
2. Omicron appears "mild" mainly because a lot of people have some prior immunity from prior Covid or vaccines or both. But it is quite capable of severe disease. Don't be complacent.
3. There are some who are particularly vulnerable to omicron:

a) Unvaccinated and inadequtely vaccinated. Unvaccinated includes those for whom vaccines not available to them (eg., young children; people in low income countries)

b) those with compromised immune system
Read 7 tweets

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