Thread by @konrad_muzyka

A short thread about recent developments.
Slightly less than two weeks ago Russia activated multiple BTGs from the Eastern Military District. Today they started arriving to Western Russia, and more importantly, to Belarus. I listed Belarus as a possible destination on the blog.

My current BTG count stands at 54. (@KofmanMichael has 60). The EMD forces will push my figure to 64. This means that since the movement of forces began (October), the Russian presence as calculated by BTGs increased from around 26 to 64. That’s a 2.5-fold increase.

To place this into a different perspective, and to (perhaps over)simply things, a Russian motor rifle division has 6 BTGs. 64 BTGs translate into 10 divisions. I am quite certain the movement hasn't finished yet.

The EMD forces add around 20% of combat potential to the existing presence. That’s a lot. Now we will need to see where these units are sent to and whether they will preposition with a goal of endangering Kyiv.

The proximity of the Ukrainian capital also means that depending on how Ukrainians organize their defences, Russians can reach Kyiv within days.

Just by looking at Russian investments in units’ redeployments, logistical efforts and costs associated with it, the increase in combat potential (shift from the defensive to offensive posture), the war is a real possibility. The trajectory of events has been trending negatively.

Although there is one positive aspect..for now. BTGs that have been deployed near Ukraine appear to only have skeleton-level crews. As such, war isn’t imminent. Troop movements to man these BTGs will, however, be an incredibly grave sign.

Indeed, moving troops without equipment is relatively easy. Kazakhstan has shown an impressive display of Russian airlift readiness and capability. As such, there should be a limited warning that things are turning for the worst once aircraft start picking up men.

Should of course be 'simplify'. Horrible.