I've spent the last few hours talking to experts in volcanos and tsunamis for #tongatsunami coverage - here are some humble conclusions. First, and most scarily, we know very little about volcanic tsunamis. Early warning systems aren't focused on them but rather earthquake ones.
Second, and of course most importantly, is that we don't yet know the full extent of how much damage has been done to Tonga itself. Experts who have viewed satellite imagery say it looks like it's been badly hit by both the tsunami and the ash fall. Praying for Tonga.
Third, the eruption itself wasn't that big. It wasn't carrying that much ash, that you might associate with a plume that big. Much of the plume was actually water vapor, which raises questions about the interaction of magma and ocean water. Which again, we know very little about.
Fourth, the fact that you could apparently HEAR this thing so far away is just wild, but not unprecedented in terms of how tsunamis manifest. Experts say some people report hearing what sounds like a train, or an airplane landing in the ocean.
Fifth, the Trump administration tried to END funding of the deep-ocean tsunami sensor network, including warning centers and DART buoys (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis). But they failed. latimes.com/local/lanow/la…
Finally, all the experts say they believe this explosion is going to drive research - and hopefully more awareness - first of underwater volcanos, and second of volcanic tsunamis, for generations.
It's days like this, when I get to just immerse myself in a topic that's so foreign and fascinating to me, that I just have to take a second and be so grateful that I get paid to do this stuff. And that volcanologists and tsunami experts are really cool. End thread.
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Q from @MittRomney: "has the Taliban abandoned their sympathy for al Qaeda, Haqqani network - or has that relationship been severed?"
@SecBlinken: the relationship has not been severed and it’s a very open question as to whether their views and the relationship has changed...
... in any kind of definitive way. I think it’s fair to say two things: one, whatever the Taliban’s views on al Qaeda, they do know that the last time they harbored al-Qaeda and engaged in an outwardly-directed attack on our homeland, certain things followed...
... which i believe they would have an interest in not seeing repeated. (didn't we just declare that we left because we were no longer interested in committing to being able to do those "certain things?")
The @HouseForeign hearing on Afghanistan, featuring @SecBlinken, is getting under way a few minutes late. Blinken joining virtually. I'll be trying to tweet notable moments/statements periodically, in this thread.
.@RepGregoryMeeks says that in the discourse over the Afghanistan withdrawal, "we are seeing domestic politics injected into foreign policy." But then issues a full-throated endorsement of the withdrawal, rather than laying out what issues the hearing seeks to examine.
@RepGregoryMeeks Blinken: "The military placed on standby by President Biden was able to secure the airport and begin evacuation." We've all seen the images of the airport. "Secure" is not one of the first words that come to mind - even if they were able to maintain operational control.
National Counterintelligence and Security Center director Bill Evanina tells @nickschifrin that recent Russian + Iranian cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure may have only accessed voter information accidentally, but of course, it still has the same end result: discord.
Evanina says his concern is not that foreign actors will be able to manipulate votes. But "the concern we have is a potential ransomware attack where systems are shut down and we're unable to process votes in a timely fashion."
Evanina distances himself from DNI Ratcliffe's statement that Iran's recent misinformation campaigns were designed to hurt President Trump: "I can only comment to the actual effects and impact of last week with respect to what happened with Iran's intentions...
New head of the US Agency for Global Media (which heads VOA, RFE/RL and others) removes the editorial protection which one former VOA director calls "the one thing that makes VOA distinct from broadcasters of repressive regimes." npr.org/2020/10/27/928…
At Pack's confirmation in September '19, @SenatorMenendez specifically asked how he would protect the firewall between VOA journalists and its government board. Pack: "Well, I'm not sure about all the journalistic practices and techniques inside the agency now to do that...
... but I would look at those and try to strengthen them. I guess it comes down to that we need to say no when you get a call from some--a political person telling journalists what to do."
THREAD: I wanted to talk/tweet about the use of “fighting” imagery when we talk about cancer, and using the term “beat” to indicate success. It’s a topic I’ve been thinking a lot about because my upcoming book employs it, right in the title: “Beat Breast Cancer Like A Boss.”
Also, I heard an excellent @BBCRadio4 piece that explores this topic in such a nuanced, thoughtful way. If this is something you’re interested in, I highly recommend you listen. bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00…
The interviewer spoke to several people who said they found such militaristic metaphors unhelpful, for various reasons, including that fighting suggests active participation, when in fact when it comes to cancer, you’re really a passive conduit.
During today's briefing, Kayleigh McEnany said that the president only gets briefed on intelligence "when there is a strategic decision to be made," and that he was not briefed "because there was no consensus." Former gov't briefers say that's not the bar for what's in the PDB.
Former CIA briefer @DavidPriess: “Many intelligence judgments in history have not had the consensus of every analyst who worked on it." nytimes.com/2020/06/29/us/…
Here's the definition of what's in a PDB on the Intel Community's own homepage: "A daily summary of high-level, all-source information and analysis on national security issues." (Granted, PDBs have evolved over administrations, but even this broad definition would apply here)