Lyn Alden Profile picture
Jan 17, 2022 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
"ESG investing" in its current form is similar to people who take selfies of themselves in fancy locations to show they were there, while barely experiencing it for real.

Mostly theater, little substance.
For example, we pollute, but buy offsets to make it someone else's problem.

We outsource our manufacturing base to another country to reduce headline energy consumption, but then buy products they make while blaming them for polluting.

This is deflection, not reform.
Software companies that build a business around addicting teens to their platform with regular dopamine hits & abuse user data sit atop the ESG investment indices, while fossil fuel producers that keep billions of people alive and comfortable are often excluded as a whole sector.
There's a trend to cut off existing energy production before having viable replacements.

Solar and wind for example, are intermittent. They require grid-scale storage, which doesn't exist in cost-effective form yet. It requires massive copper/nickel/other-metals production.
If you run the math on how much copper, nickel, and other metals the world needs to produce in order to reduce oil/gas/coal usage as a percentage of global energy production, it's far beyond what we can currently produce. And those metals require fossil fuels to dig up.
Politicians score narrative points by making goals to do a certain thing by a certain date, without the technology in place to make it possible.

It's often a bunch of non-engineers making engineering decisions.

And as voters we feel good, despite having done little yet.
The majority of solar equipment currently comes out of China, which manufactures the equipment using coal and very ethically-questionable labor (to say the least).
foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/14/us-…
bbc.com/news/world-asi…
We barely know how to recycle wind turbines yet (which are made from petroleum and don't biodegrade), so we just burry them in mass graves.

Wind is renewable but wind turbines are not, yet we pretend they are or simply assume they one day will be.
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
We cut existing nuclear production and end up relying more on coal than we otherwise would have.

We overbuild intermittent sources of power production, without proper storage, run into energy shortages, and then act surprised and resort to coal.
nber.org/papers/w26598 Image
We rightly condemn human rights violations that China is doing to Uyghurs, but the biggest holding in Vanguard's ESG ETF is Apple, which signs quarter-trillion dollar deals with the CCP:
theguardian.com/technology/202…
So people sell their Chinese shares, buy Apple shares instead, and pat themselves on the back.

Meanwhile their phone, computer, chair, sneakers, cookware, electronic devices, and kids' toys are all partly Chinese made.

A lot of it is window dressing.
"ESG" as currently used is corporate, sanitized, and nearly meaningless.

It's like the the word "synergy". It's a TPS report.

It's policymakers vowing to increase taxes on public air travel while excluding the impact on private jets for themselves. That sort of thing.
I'm 100% in favor of environmentalism. We should absolutely prioritize less pollutants going into the air, water, and ground.

And I'm very in favor of diverse boards of directors. A broad background of experiences is beneficial for risk management and growth opportunities.
And a good company over the long run takes care of its employees and clients rather than just emphasizing executives and shareholders.

Nucor outperformed US Steel in large part because it took care of its employees through cycles, realizing how valuable they are. Image
We should absolutely reward companies that do good, fundamentally. That treat employees and customers well. That maximize environmental efficiency over the long run. That are aware of their limitations and echo chambers and seek diverse expertise to flourish.
It's less about what sector a company is in, and what check boxes they are ticking off, and more about whether they, at the core philosophy of their business, are emphasizing the long-term or the short-term in terms of investment and stakeholders.
Most government and corporate actions are about the next election cycle, the next quarterly report, the next vesting period. Almost all short-term.

Real progress is more about long-term thinking and sustainable designs, not short-term narrative point-scoring and signaling.
If anything, pretending we are doing good to check off certain boxes as perceived by others, while still doing whatever we were doing before, slows real progress.

One of the worst things we can do is to feel like we are doing something constructive, without actually doing so.

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More from @LynAldenContact

Feb 22
Here's a thread about social media decentralization.

A couple years ago, I tried to "like" one of Doomberg's posts about a platform, and I literally saw the heart fill up, and then drain out of it like blood. I'd never seen that before.

Twitter said me liking that was disabled: Image
Then, when I tried to search on Twitter for that certain platform that apparently can't be named, the search results would replace it with "newsletter" in my search of the network, which was kind of Orwellian: Image
Even now, I don't say the obvious visible name of that platform that starts with an S. Since an unconscious algo might derank it.

Maybe that's not an issue anymore. Probably.

The funny thing is that I didn't even post about that platform until I couldn't. Then I did a lot.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 22
I think disagreement is the engine of change. Good ideas win or lose on their merits.

It might be short-form memes or long-form articles and books. But you need to be able to win your arguments that way.

Force is the *last* resort, usually in defense from irrationality.

But.🧵
Maybe I’m old-fashioned.

I was always taught in martial arts to be polite until hit, but then to rekt whoever hit me or those I am responsible for.

I think that’s pretty fair. It is a very high hurdle before your ideas can hurt me or my family enough for me to hit back.
My father was more hardcore, though.

He actually told me to hit bullies *first*.

He had a hard life and won, and I disagreed with his views early on.

I thought that was too rough. Too mean. My mother said otherwise. My conscience said otherwise.

But he was adamant on this.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 5
A lot of individual facts that the bears were saying in 2023 and 2024 were correct, but those facts were dwarfed by fiscal dominance. Image
For example, net bank loan creation was sluggish at just $300B over the past year.

But banks also bought $400B net in Treasuries. Image
Healthcare spending, DoD spending, Social Security spending, and interest expense just kept rolling. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13, 2024
I keep seeing the chart float around of 23 million government employees, as though that's directly cuttable by the new Department of Government Efficiency.

Keep in mind that 3 million of those are listed as federal and the other 20+ million are state/local.

A thread. 🧵 Image
Image
Now, quantifying the actual federal workforce is actually nontrivial.
-Are we talking civilian, or military too (1.3M)?
-Are we including postal workers (550k)?

This WH report says 4.3 million federal workers with all of this, with breakdowns.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
But wait, there's more. There are also somewhere in the ballpark of 4 million federal contractors. The number fluctuates.

In 2023, $759 billion was committed to them.
gao.gov/blog/snapshot-…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2024
Along with Steve Lee @moneyball and Ren @0xren_cf, I co-authored a paper that analyzes the process and risks of how Bitcoin upgrades its consensus rules over time, from a technical & economic perspective.

Here's a 🧵

You can check it out here:
github.com/bitcoin-cap/bc…
Here's the v1.0 PDF version:
github.com/bitcoin-cap/bc…
Bitcoin is hard to change by design, and the methods of how it changes have evolved as the network has grown.

In the paper, we analyze what consensus is, and how different types of entities have different incentives and powers during the course of a potential consensus change.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
CPI for November came in this morning. Headline numbers continue to bounce around above 3%, while core continues to gradually decrease. 🧵
Image
Image
Some people assume that the end of inflation means prices go down, but instead it just means the rate of change of prices decreases to the target rate.

There's permanently more money in the system, and prices in aggregate are permanently higher. Image
Currently, China has weak domestic consumption but strong production/exports, the United States has decent consumption but weak production, and Europe's domestic consumption *and* production are weak.

This weakness weighs on energy prices and other materials.
Read 4 tweets

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