SDL Profile picture
Jan 18,, 5 tweets, 2 min read
why are we doing the $50/hr minwage discourse again
the desireable minwage in capitalism is set by median wages & monopsony (employer power in a labor market)

in high/medium monopsony, wages rise & employment rises or stays the same

in low monopsony markets, wages rise but employment falls -- hurting workers & worker power!
researchers like @arindube have found zero to small unemployment rises with minwage rises up to:
- 60% of median for states
- 80% of median for cities

that difference has a lot to do with variations in monopsony, worker power, and economic efficiency.
The real projected median hourly wage in 2024 is $23. 60% of that is ~$13.8.

The real value of a $15 minwage in 2021 would be ~$13.5 in 2024 (lower due to inflation).

That's right around the maximum observed % for states without major employment loss.
If the goal is "what's desirable in the short term under capitalism", $15 is in the zone that maximizes worker power & worker wellbeing but $50 is not

We can change that zone -- for example, if we forced median wages up by forcing top wages down (predistribution), it would rise!

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More from @SocDoneLeft

Jan 18,
Image
As an interesting comparison, see Stallman 1995: brill.com/downloadpdf/bo…

In the early Islamic period, despite being extremely urbanized, Jews were disproportionately proletariat and petit bourgeoise. It another religious minority that dominated finance: Christians ! ImageImage
The best explanation for any overrepresentation of Jewish people in finance is simple: Cities!

Finance and trade live in cities. In Europe, few Christian but most Jewish people lived in cities. Excluded from other places + strong religious preferences for cities, as below: ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Oct 21, 2021
Lefties: What moral argument do you think is most persuasive for your vision of socialism / anarchism / social democracy?
imo the big three are:

- Egalitarianism: unequal power/wealth, esp. very unequal or unearned, is unjust
- Utilitarianism: classless world makes average person better off
- Flourishing/freedom: decomodification of labor enables real human flourishing / positive freedom
this is where I want to start my theory blog series -- essentially asking what moral arguments for socialism are persuasive for different sets of people (not everyone values equality; not everyone values well-being of others; not everyone values positive freedom)
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2, 2021
The myth of "homelessness by choice" is pernicious. Here are the two main reasons that we know it's false:
First, we can ask homeless ppl.

The two studies that've formally done so (afaik):
- Stark 1984 in Phoenix: 93% of 345 ppl wanted to get off the streets.
- Caulk 1983 in Portland: 78% of 125 ppl said the same.

That's ~89% who say their homelessness is not their choice.
Second, we can give homeless people the choice: They overwhelmingly choose housing.

After Finland adopted "Housing First" in 2008, long-term homelessness dropped from ~4,000 to ~500 by 2017. That's a 7/8 reduction in 9 years, and just ~5% of the size of the 11k unhoused in 1987.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 20, 2021
reposting as an OP: Nitzan and Bichler 2009 present a foundational problems with the Marxian labor theory of value:

the metric of labor (socially necessary (SN) abstract (A) labor-time (LT), or SNALT) cannot be directly observed; we can only observe actual, concrete labor-time:
The first conversion of "actual" to "socially necessary" is more feasible.

If competition forces most capitalists to produce efficiently (use no more labor-time than socially necessary), then average actual LT may be close to socially necessary LT.

Shaikh, Cockshott argue this.
The second conversion of "concrete" to "abstract" is much less feasible.

Concrete labor, observable labor-- cutting a log, hammering a nail -- is heterogenous. It is done by different people, in different places, with different skills and education, in different ways, etc.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 13, 2021
A thread of some interesting studies about the effects of religiosity on political & personal behavior:
Many studies have correlated religiosity and social conservatism. Here are a few:

A simple one: Just 4% of atheists voted for Donald Trump in 2016: baylor.edu/baylorreligion…
This correlation between religiosity and economical & social rightism holds across nearly the entire world:

Gaskins 2013: religiosity correlates with conservatism (on left-right self-placement, divorce, euthanasia, abortion, suicide, and homosexuality): sci-hub.st/10.1017/S00223…
Read 11 tweets
Sep 11, 2021
Political terrorism is a deeply ineffective strategy with a high human cost.
Abrahms 2006: in a dataset of 42 terrorist groups, terrorism was rarely successful (7%, 3/42) or partly successful (17%, 7/42); it is more successful against military targets than civilian and with limited goals than maximalist or other goals: mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.116…
Fortna 2015: relative to civil wars led by nonterrorist rebel groups, terrorist rebel groups were 15x less likely to achieve victory and 2x less likely to reach an agreement with the government: cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Read 4 tweets

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