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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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Jan 18 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
If you dont yet understand bonds and yield curves, @RealVision produces some amazing education content. Here is a primer on Fixed Income... 1/

realvision.com/shows/investor…
And here is one about liquidity and the yield curve overall:

realvision.com/shows/investor…
This is how to use macro data...

realvision.com/shows/investor…
And this is how to use the business cycle:

realvision.com/shows/investor…
And this is money:

realvision.com/shows/investor…
If you want to learn about bonds, commodities, equities, crypto, etc then head over to RV. Its only $1 to try it and get a lifetimes of priceless learning

realvision.com

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Jan 18
There is something interesting about this rate cycle in the yield curve.... Normally, it doesn't really flatten until a couple of years post recession and normally at 250bps. Now, this could be a correction but if it breaks this line, it suggests a shorter cycle than normal.
This doesn't mean an recession is imminent but it means that the bond market sees less ability to tighten without slowing growth. We saw similar in Japan's YC in 2010 (lower than the usual 150bps)...
And Japan's bond yields never recovered...
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Jan 8
Just a reminder - You cant use daily or weekly charts if your time horizon is years. You're either in this for network adoption over time or you are a trader. I am not a trader in crypto. I can't care less about 50% swings in a 70 vol asset.
In the end, the only technicals that matter (Metcalfe's Law matters more) are:

Log chart
48 month Exponential Moving Average?
Maybe the trend since 2015 (but same as EXPMA).

I seriously doubt the bull market ends at regression trend, it should see higher (1 standard deviation+)
BTC is cheap vs Metcalfe's Law....(and has been for a long time - my guess is because there is less network applications on BTC currently than ML would prefer).
Read 14 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Dec 28, 2021
There is a lot going on in the digital asset space but also nothing going on and that is the problem...

Let me give you some thoughts... 1/
BTC volumes have been stagnant since the run up in 2020
And active wallet addresses have not gone anywhere either...It seems that retail activity peaked at the beginning of 2021
Read 25 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Dec 14, 2021
Wow, everyone has gotten super bearish on everything in digital assets

I do think crimped excess disposable income due to inflation is partially to blame. The marginal retail buyer is more… marginal 1/
YoY rate of change of Fed balance sheet is also a factor but in past cycles risk on continued in the main.

But a lot is position squaring and rebalancing after a good year of owning risk. Tax selling too.

But my view is that the game hasn’t yet changed…
And many are scarred by past cycles when this point in the halving cycle produced the top.

But past damages to your psyche can also cause you to be excessively cautious in what appears to be an elongated cycle or change of structure
Read 13 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 30, 2021
So, this @RealVision event in Vegas on Dec 9th to 11th is turning into someone BIG. There is a HUGE announcement later in this thread that you do not want to miss. HUGE!! Something like only Real Vision can pull off... 1/2
Yes, we partnered with MGM to host it a the MGM Grand with events and parties across all their flagship properties with the biggest names in crypto. I'll also be there - my first event in over 2 years!

But...
My biggest excitement for this event lies in music. I love music. And the entire industry is about to be disrupted.

@RAC was the first person to help me get up to speed. He is coming to the event...
Read 8 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 22, 2021
Re-watching Inside Job on Netflix. It reminds me of March 2020 and the potential insolvency phase of The Unfolding hypothesis I had, especially around BBB bonds. 1/
The Fed realised it couldn’t happen at all costs or the system would go down ( much like the ECB in 2012).

That led to buying on high yield corporate bonds via QE. The rubicon had been crossed.
The next part of that rubicon crossing was the implicit financing of fiscal stimulus.

The worst part of the story? It worked. The biggest recession since 1929 lasted 2 months (by NBER definition).
Read 13 tweets

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