New data mRNA vaccine 4th dose timesofisrael.com/israeli-trial-…
—HCW, 154 Pfizer, 120 Moderna, + control group
—Increase in antibodies > 3rd dose
—Little effect on Omicron cases
—No data yet for ? severe disease, memory B/T cells, higher or more durable protection
—Uncertain benefit/need
Last week @UKHSA published their new data on Omicron and 2 dose vs 3 dose vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs infections assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
In people w/o prior Covid, the booster approximately doubled VE, the 62% isn't bad (point estimate)
But
It falls off pretty fast, this vs Omicron (and Delta) symptomatic infections. So an important unresolved question is whether the 4th dose helps prevents this attrition of VE over time vs symptomatic infection and severe disease
Israel has given a 4th dose to well over 500,000 people (of 9 M population) abcnews.go.com/International/…
Testing is aggressive (>8X US/capita) but this graph of their Omicron wave isn't encouraging vs infections with 3rd booster rate 54% (US 24%), 2-shot vaxx 64% (US 62%)
Last point, which I cannot emphasize enough:
3rd shot protection vs Omicron hospitalizations, severe disease, death is remarkably high, about as well preserved as 2 shots vs ancestral strain, and a very different look compared with VE vs infections assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Further highlighting this dichotomy in Israel
Impact of cases vs impact on severe disease/hospital or ICU admits/death ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-…
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We've known about KP.3's marked growth advantage since April and could have made the call then to make the new booster. That would have been aligned well with the current wave (available in July) 2/5 erictopol.substack.com/p/are-we-flirt…
But the FDA has tried to force fit Covid into an annual shot like flu, even though all data tells us it doesn't follow an annual pattern. Even the CDC acknowledges this now
3/5cdc.gov/ncird/whats-ne…
New CDC genomic data shows continued rise of the KP.3 variant that accounts for 1 of 3 Covid cases.
LB.1 is gaining, too, as JN.1 fades away
This variant growth advantage plot by @BenjMurrell (H/T @siamosolocani) shows why this is the case. Note KP.3 is the one at far left w/ almost 3-fold advantage to JN.1.
Reinforces why the decision to develop the KP.2 vaccine booster (instead of JN.1) was a good one
Spike mutation map to show the differences betweem KP.3 and JN.1 (and LB.1, KP.2)
The connection between #SARSCoV2 and neurodegeneration
@TheLancetNeuro
Quotes below: 1. SARS-CoV-2 infection should be considered as a risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease, even though the distinction between causation versus disease acceleration is not clear.thelancet.com/journals/laneu…
2. Inflammation in patients with COVID-19, and controlled experiments show prolonged neuro-inflammation after mild SARS-CoV-2 infection
in macaques.
3. A direct correlation has been reported
between prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and increased risk
of Alzheimer’s disease (figure).
4. So far, the estimated lifetime cumulative risk of dementia due to hospitalisation for any viral infection is 1·48 (95% CI 1·15–1·91).
Breaking down the risks and benefit for lecanemab, the amyloid beta-directed antibody vs Alzheimer's drug approved @US_FDA last year. It doesn't look good.
My oped on the JN.1 variant and the 2nd biggest US wave of infections (after Omicron) since the pandemic began
@latimes @latimesopinion #LongCovid latimes.com/opinion/story/…
Recent @CDCgov #SARSCoV2 wastewater data for current wave (vs Omicron Jan 2022 and subsequent waves), graph by @luckytran
Sorry, @washingtonpost, but this is not "another Covid-19 uptick" as you put it in your Health Alert. You ignore the best metric for infections that we have at present—wastewater—focusing only on hospitalizations washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01…