Rajeev Mantri Profile picture
Jan 18, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
In November 2020, a journalist wrote a piece titled "Why I Am Losing Hope In India". The screed was shared widely by the usual suspects, offering an extremely negative prognosis on how the India story might be on its last legs.
Let us assess how things have turned out over the last ~15 months for India and the Indian economy.

Entrepreneurship: 2021 was a record year for IPOs and for new unicorns minted.
India continued to see net investment from institutional investors, even as other Asian countries saw significant net outflows - reflecting investor confidence in Indian business.
Public health: India started vaccinations on January 16 2021. As of this morning, over 1.58 billion shots were completed. ~95% of eligible persons have received one dose, about 70% of eligible persons are fully vaccinated.

India's vaccination rate has been *the world's fastest*.
Macro: @IMFNews projects India to be the world's fastest growing economy - for 2021 and 2022. India, a ~$3T GDP economy, leads not just Asian or emerging economies, but is likely to be the world's growth engine.
Goods exports are picking up as the various economic reforms implemented in the last 8 years bear fruit, helping raise India's share of global goods export to an all-time high.
Indian savings are financializing like never before, getting invested into equities, and it is still early days as workers join formal economy and park savings into stocks.
Finally: National-scale programs like @jaljeevan_ have been making sustained progress over the last 3 years, despite the challenges brought by the global pandemic.




These programs especially benefit women ideasforindia.in/topics/social-…
So next time you see some journalist penning fictional prose written in tear-jerking style, and passing it off as serious analysis, your reaction should be...😉

#LongIndia #IndiaTech

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More from @RMantri

Jul 6, 2023
“The size of the middle class is expected to rise from 432M people in 2020-21 to 715M (47%) in 2030-31 to 1.02B, 61% of India's projected population of 1.66B in 2047”

This will have profound implications for society and business.business-standard.com/economy/news/i…
Just two industry trends that reflect the structural transformation of India’s consumer base:

Maruti Suzuki launches a car for high-end buyers

Rising demand drives hotel expansion plans, room rates at record highs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
livemint.com/companies/news…
Pavitr Prabhakar, “a web-swinging, chai-sipping fellow whose name is a play on Peter Parker”, attracts Indian fans to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Expect more such storytelling by Hollywood studios that want to succeed in India’s vast market 😀 🎥wsj.com/articles/spide…
Read 29 tweets
Feb 2, 2023
What is the difference between BJP and Congress?

In 2008, a year before the general elections, Congress-UPA gave a colossal farm loan waiver.

In 2023, also a year before the general elections, BJP-NDA hikes capital expenditure by 33%, to over Rs 10 trillion 👏

🛣️ 🛤️🚄🛫🏭⚡️
The capex scale is huge:
FY20 : Rs 3.4 trillion
FY21 : Rs 4.1 trillion
FY22 : Rs 5.9 trillion
FY23 : Rs 7.3 trillion
FY24 : Rs 10 trillion

BJP-NDA has kept up investment in infra - for ex., average railways capex more than doubled between 2014-2019 (via Economic Survey).
From a yearly average of Rs 0.99 trillion between 2014-2019, we are now setting up for Rs 2.4 trillion railways capex in a single year.

This is how progress compounds. One fine day some years from today, people will wake up and marvel at the transformation.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28, 2022
Global business leaders and investors continue to be quite positive on India, the macro/geopolitical headwinds notwithstanding.

Remember, no matter how difficult the environment, we can still do decently if we keep doing well whatever is in our control. 1/n Image
The global CEO of McKinsey, Bob Sternfels, said - this is not just India’s decade, but India’s century. m.economictimes.com/news/economy/i…

“India is the talent factory of the world, it has massive potential across all manufacturing industries, and it has leapfrogged on digitization” 2/n
Noel Quinn, group CEO of HSBC – “India is extremely well positioned to ride out an economic slowdown and has seen strong FDI, trade flows…Manufacturing plants are starting to be built in India, and credit goes to the Government of India…” cnbctv18.com/business/compa… 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Sep 2, 2022
Given unprecedented inflation in advanced economies, one has to question their policy choices through the pandemic. While the shock to energy and food prices from the European war is a proximate cause, excessive fiscal stimulus during 2020 had fragilized these countries.
For example, UK could soon see inflation north of 20%. These levels are unheard of, last seen many decades ago. This will deal a severe blow to real disposable incomes and household savings. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
What must be noted and remembered is most of the "policy experts" and economists were building pressure for India to follow the same playbook in 2020: go for a huge fiscal stimulus, even as the country went into a total lockdown. Slam brakes and accelerator simultaneously!
Read 29 tweets
Feb 1, 2022
Zero tax on long-term gains and dividends was a disastrous tax policy. The objective of taxation should be to have the tax base be as wide as possible. Exempting entire sections from paying taxes only causes those who are paying taxes to cough up at even higher rates.
Not just that, zero taxes on listed equities - vast majority of which is secondary market purchase, not in primary issue - is a clear disincentive for financial participation in private equity, which comparatively was very heavily taxed. Private equity actually funds businesses.
This clamour around Budget time from every segment for reduction in taxes is frankly disgusting. Direct taxes in India still need a lot of rationalization and reforms. Argue for system-wide changes that make everyone better off, instead of trying to grab your own benefit.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 31, 2022
Table 5 of the Economic Survey lays out in detail all the welfare measures taken through the Covid crisis, along with the results thereof. #EconomicSurvey2022

@sanjeevsanyal
This has been India's approach, all through the pandemic. Strong safety nets targeted (thanks to @UIDAI and @India_Stack) at those who need it most, and an iterative approach that adapts to evolving situations.
Macro is strong and stable - even if global conditions worsen from here, India is in a good position to weather storms. #EconomicSurvey2022
Read 18 tweets

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