X : You don't agree with agile?
Me : Eh? What? I agree with using appropriate methods based upon context.
X : Context of what?
Me : Context of the components of a project.
X : I'm not sure I understand.
Me : Ok. take your systems diagram ...
... turn it into a map by focusing on the user need, building the chain of components and asking how evolved is this component ...
... now realise that as things evolve their characteristics change which is why different methods have strengths in different contexts ...
... so, apply that pattern to your map and discuss with others. Allow them to challenge, to modify, to add missing knowledge etc.
But most importantly, realise that ...
... using agile (i.e. lightweight XP) is not the same as ...
... being agile.
Being agile requires you to use appropriate methods i.e. don't start building your own compute utility when there's a perfectly useable one out there.
X : Not sure why this matters?
Me : Hmmm. Take that systems diagram above. People often manage this with a one size fits all (i.e. outsource it all) and to make it manageable break it into "connected" areas i.e. this stuff is backoffice, this stuff is user experience ...
... let us apply one of those "connected" areas to the map. Let us choose engineering. Now, we're going to outsource this and so we're going to need a contract, so we know what we're getting ...
... well, I can tell you where the contract is going to mess up before we've even signed it. The stuff on the left will always occur excessive change control costs if you attempt to define it in a contract ...
... sitting down with a £600M+ contract, spending a day mapping and showing where the contract is going to massively overrun is one of my superpowers.
X : Why £600M?
Me : Happens to be a contract I'm thinking of.
X : What happened?
Me : They did it anyway and ...
... failed in all the right places. Massive cost overruns etc etc.
X : Why did they do it?
Me : The power of narrative. They believed in their story, they associated themselves (and their own power) with the story and they refused to accept challenge against their story.
X : Is this common?
Me : 84% of digital transformation efforts fail, over 50% of outsourcing efforts fail (and that has only come down because we count cloud as outsourcing) etc. It's more common than not.
X : But those failures aren't just contracts and purchasing.
Me : Agreed but a significant number of the failures appear to have a common thread - an excellent story built on a lack of challenge and a lack of situational awareness
X : Mapping seems a lot of work.
Me : It is. It took me an entire day to map out a £600M contract and spot the flaws ... seriously, are you really going to play the analysis paralysis card?
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X : What is the deep state?
Me : Depends. You have various conspiracy theory forms and then there's the general term used to describe networks of power operating outside traditional democratic processes. This includes the influence of corporate interests, financial bodies, think tanks, wealthy individuals, lobbysts firms and institutions on government policy. Why?
X : Is Trump going to war on the deep state?
Me : I suspect you'll find that Trump brings his own corporate interests, financial bodies, think tanks, wealthy individuals, lobbysts firms and institutions that will have influence on government policy outside of the normal democratic process.
X : What does that mean?
Me : It means the deep state doesn't usually go away, it just changes i.e. a different group have influence. Unless Trump is planning on a radical program of transparency. Now, that would be interesting. Never seen Trump as a transparency champion.
X : Did you research healthcare investment?
Me : Back in 2023. A group of clinicians mapped multiple perspective of healthcare - including AI, clinical decision making, healthcare value chain - then we used those to determine where to invest from a societal and market benefit.
Me : ... from the table, if your focus is on society then your priority for investment should be measurement of health outcomes (against Patient Reported Outcome Measures) and sharing of medical data. If you're after market growth then try personalised medicine and preventative healthcare.
X : How do you produce those tables?
Me : Pick a field ... like healthcare. Ideally get 40-60 people together with experience i.e. clinicians. Ask them to write down post-it notes of what matters ...
X : What is the most essential skill for AI in the future?
Me : Critical thinking in humans. Alas, we don't usually teach this at school because we're too focused on producing useful economic units.
X : Useful economic units?
Me : Turning humans into automatons for the workplace.
X : Do you have evidence for this.
Me : I took a group of educational consultants, academics and teachers in 2023 and mapped out education from multiple perspectives ... purpose, micro-credentials, asynchronous & synchronous learning, learning models, social learning ...
... we then used the maps to identify where to invest for both societal and market benefit. We then aggregated the results, into the table attached.
If your focus in on societal benefit, then invest in lifelong learning and critical thinking. If your focus is on making money then invest in educational AI and digital access.
It amazes me that the most important metrics (lines of code, story points, cycle time, devex satisfaction) in development are the two that are never discussed, let alone measured ... mean time to answer (mttA) and mean time to question (mttQ).
Whenever we start with building a system or managing a legacy environment, we need to ask questions and get answers. Those are skills which can be hindered or supported by the toolset around you ...
... in the very worst cases, engineers are forced into reading code to try and understand a system. Upto 50% of development time can be spent on reading code ... a process we never question or optimise. That is madness.
X : Thoughts on a return to office policy?
Me : It happens for two basic reasons:- 1) loss of status symbols (top floor office etc). Many execs need these to say "I'm the boss" 2) headcount reduction (i.e. people will leave) due to a weakness in the finances.
Why?
X : What about productivity and innovation?
Me : Those are "reasons" given but they're all bogus and don't stand up to scrutiny. However, there is a third.
X : Colloboration?
Me : Stranded assets - offices etc. No exec likes looking at an empty building they spent £300M on.
X : Basically - status symbols, weaknesses of finances and political capital?
Me : Sounds about right.
X : Did you see Amazon has a return to office policy -
Me : Oh. That's concerning.geekwire.com/2024/survey-by…
X : Our strategy doesn't align with our business.
Me : How do you mean?
X : We create these strategy documents but they never really get implemented as the day to day business takes over.
Me : That's common. Can I ask a question?
X : Sure
Me : ...
Me : Do you map?
X : I've heard of your technique but we don't use it.
Me : Ok, so your business operations is not based upon a map of the landscape?
X : No
Me : And your strategy is not based upon a map of the landscape?
X : No
Me : What made you think they would align?
X : They are supposed to align and we wrote our strategy on our understanding of the business.
Me : Your wrote your strategy based upon stories. There's no means to create a consensus of your landscape, to challenge what your are doing. There is no mechanism for alignment.