I didn't get chance to do thread after Friday @IndependentSage briefing (viewable here: )
so here is a quick update.
TLDR: cases and admissions have likely peaked, but expect schools to prolong the wave... 1/10
Reported cases have peaked and in all nations.
While many things affect case reporting, positivity rates are also falling (good). ONS always lags by a week or two, but hopefully we will see sustained drops in a week or two.
BUT prevalence is still *extraordinarily* high. 2/10
Cases are now falling in all English regions - you can see a clear pre-Xmas change in London likely driven by people cancelling plans to avoid being sick at Xmas.
NE last to peak, but it has.
Again ONS is a bit lagged, but shows London has and other regions flattening 3/10
Hospital occupancy is falling in N Ireland and slowing in other nations. Occupancy close to first 2020 wave.
Looks like admissions have peaked - but remain high - across England. ICUs however have not been stressed by Covid this winter. 4/10
So admissions will not reach the levels in the SAGE Spi-M scenarios - SAGE think likely because people voluntarily reduced contacts during Omicron + boosters.
This is obv better news BUT do NOT think that NHS has coped... 5/10
Many staff are off sick & A&E's are overflowing. Waits are long, more than 1/6 hosps have declared critical incidents & cancelled treatments. Docs & nurses are sharing the moral injury of being forced to give suboptimal care.
Deaths have been going up - both by reported date (affected by holiday delays) and by date of death - in fact by date of death, we are seeing highest daily counts since Feb 2021 - before most people were vaccinated. 7/10
Boosters have been key this winter - but after a massive pre-Xmas surge, demand has dropped off a cliff. Not surprising given people keep being told that Omicron is fine and it's over.
But it's not and it isn't and boosters are vital.
Plus most children are NOT vaxxed 8/10
Speaking of children... while reported cases are going down in all adult age groups and teenagers, they are *not* in pre school and primary age children.
This comes with disruption -> 300K children off first week of term and many teachers 9/10
Hosp admissions in kids, esp under 5's, have been v v high (but now falling?). More kids admitted last month than first 8 months of pandemic.
Most stay in hosp only a day or two BUT they would likely be at home if no covid.
We should care more about kids getting covid. 10/10
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Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6