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The Reckoning 💥

@sethjlevy

Oct 19

https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1979894605018693971

1/ During Trump’s first term the post Watergate empowerment of the executive branch power centers reached its absurd zenith.

They told the American people that they couldn’t have what they wanted even if they elected a President.

But providence intervened.

https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1979894605018693971

2/ In September 2020, Ruth Bader Ginsburg died.

If she dies 6 months later, the course of history is forever changed.

Instead ACB replaced her and the court was set on a clear course to wipe away the excesses of the progressive era.

This includes the post Watergate status quo.

3/ I’ve written earlier this year how DC reacted to Nixon’s reelection landslide by bringing together every corner of their power, the media, DOJ and Congress, to both destroy him and ensure no future President would use power the way he had.

Read 11 tweets

The Reckoning 💥

@sethjlevy

Apr 26

Remember when Zelensky said American boys and girls would die in Ukraine?

He didn't say that.

What did he actually say?

Does it relate to American superiority in space?

Is Space Force the key to understanding peace negotiations?

🧵 Let's explore.

cnn.com/2023/03/02/pol…

Back in 2019 upon creating Space Force Trump said, "There are going to be a lot of things happening in space. Because space is the world's newest warfighting domain. The Space Force will help us deter aggression and control the ultimate high ground."

Like an eye in the sky?

George Friedman explains two truths.

1) NATO was at its core a way of preventing Russia from overrunning Europe and gaining access to the Atlantic ports.

2) Our technological advantage is our ability to see the battlefield from space. We possess the ultimate eye in the sky.

Read 12 tweets

The Reckoning 💥

@sethjlevy

Apr 23

https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1910376276163953043

I wrote this thread about Trump’s inability to trust any deal with China after his experience in the first term attempting a trade deal with Xi.

Since then, Trump has dropped hints that he will just unilaterally impose a deal on China.

🧵 Let’s dive into what’s happening:

https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1910376276163953043

The fundamental problem with China as a trade partner is that you can’t trust them to keep their commitments.

Particularly when you are asking them to violate their cultural norms or their 100 year objectives.

Ultimately they force you to conform to them.

Trump has solved for this and he’s been previewing it for a few days now.

6 days ago with a wry smile, “I believe we are going to have a deal with China. And if we don’t, we are going to have a deal anyway because we are going to set a certain target and that’s going to be it.”

Read 10 tweets

The Reckoning 💥

@sethjlevy

Apr 10

After yesterday’s move to drop tariff rates on the rest of the world to 10% while raising China to 125%, the world is watching for signs that Trump will cut a deal with Xi.

Can Trump trust any deal he makes with Xi, regardless how good it seems?

Let’s explore the history 🧵:

Back in 2017, one of Trump’s first moves was to invite President Xi to Mar A Lago.

The purpose of holding the meeting at the “winter White House” was to provide an informal setting for their first-ever meeting, allowing them to "break the ice" and build a personal rapport.

The summit in March of 2017 aimed to address significant U.S.-China concerns.

Trump wanted to convey the importance of establishing a "fair, balanced, and reciprocal" economic relationship, expressing concerns about how the trade imbalance affected American workers.

Read 11 tweets

The Reckoning 💥

@sethjlevy

Apr 9

Researching to better understand the yield spread in context of the Bessent short.

What has been Bessent’s clearly stated goal long term?

Lowering the yield on the 10 year treasury bond.

But it’s going up, doesn’t that mean he’s failing?

No

Quick 🧵:

x.com/i/grok/share/V…

Let’s start with that I am not proposing that I’m some sort of long term expert in these issues.

I’m not.

But given the moment we are in, I have been giving this a lot of thought and doing a lot of research.

With that said, let’s explore.

How does forcing the Yuan over its psychological barrier connect with Bessent’s goal of lowering yields?

Well, in order to truly drive down the yield on the 10 year treasury you need a large and persistent demand for US treasuries.

The type of demand that would result from a flight of capital out of China and into the US.

Read 13 tweets

The Reckoning 💥

@sethjlevy

Apr 8

The Bessent short has gained popularity as the US and China descend into a trade war.

It's grounded in the famous Soros Fund Management short of the British pound.

But are there signs that this could be happening to the Yuan?

Let's explore the Bessent short 🧵:

First let's explore the dynamics that Bessent exploited shorting the pound.

• UK joined ERM, a system design to stabilize European currency
• Britian was in a recession
• This conflicted with the principle of currency stabilization

But how was Bessent was key to the scheme?

Bessent joined Soros Fund Management in 1991, quickly rose to the head of the London office and part of Soros inner circle by 1992.

Scott was an expert in the UK's weaknesses.

He provided the research and analysis that Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller used to execute the short.

Read 16 tweets

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