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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Jan 18, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The RAF airlift of AT-weapons to Ukraine is now 5 x C-17 sorties.

Rough order, you can fit around 400 FGM-148 or NLAW on 463L pallets on a single C-17.
1/
NLAW's inertial guidance is accurate versus moving targets to 400 meters and stationary at twice that. It uses a 15 cm Bill style slant down tandem HEAT warhead and will beat the front slope of any Russian tank.

You can't jam it.
2/
Only active defenses can stop and NLAW. And a tank hunter team can simultaneously fire several at the same tank to saturate an active defense.

Plus NLAW can be fired indoors.

Sub-tweet thread on NLAW 👇👇👇👇
3/
So, what does 2,000 transferred NLAW in the hands of the Ukrainian Army mean?

It answers the primary need of the Ukrainians, namely, a lot of ATGM with sure kill given a fair hit on a later Generation T-72/T-80/T-90 tank.

See Phil Karber here:
4/
 defence-ua.com/minds_and_idea…
And also see Phil Karber here regards providing USMC surplus Humvee TOW missile launchers and US Army surplus Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine:
5/
 defence-ua.com/army_and_war/v…
The Trump and Biden Administrations have sent 120 Javelin Missile launchers and several thousand (that number is not public where I've looked) Javelin missiles since 2017.

Given there are 40 active Ukrainian battalion battle groups with another 16 in
6/
 defence-blog.com/ukraine-to-rec…
...reserves. That works out to three Javelin launchers and maybe 30 (speculative guess) missiles in the BTG.

This is why Phillip Karber was calling out the need for more.

While the Javelin in small numbers has won engagements like The Battle of Debecka, IRAQ, 2003
7/
There is simply no comparison between the Russian Army of 2021 and the Iraqi Army facing the Kurdish Peshmerga Army during invasion of Iraq in 2003.
8/
 weaponsandwarfare.com/2016/06/12/the…
The best a Ukrainian BTG can hope for with three Javelin launchers and 30 missiles versus a Russian regimental scale attack is 18 tank & AFV kills with a 100% loss of all three launchers & crew while being over run.
10/
Two thousand NLAW change this calculations by a lot.

Forty Ukrainian BTG now have another 50 NLAW on top of the three Javelin launchers & each NLAW missile is in a disposable launcher

An attacking Russian regiment can face a peak of 53 simultaneous sure kill if hit ATGMs.
11/
What the US Army Ft. Irwin National Training Center has shown time after time is that massed & simultaneous ATGM salvos from multiple ranges break large scale tank attacks.

The RAF airlift of 2,000 NLAW to Ukraine has given the Ukrainian Army that capability.

12/
The addition of NLAW to Javelins & existing older Ukrainian anti-tank weapons means the three Javelin launchers per BTG will survive several engagements.

BLUF: The Russian Army trying to take Eastern Ukraine now will lose 500 more tanks than before the RAF NLAW airlift.

/End
Correction: The Ukrainian Army has 26, not 16 reserve BTG.
There are now _SIX_ RAF NLAW supply flights to Ukraine.

The RAF anti-tank missile transfer flights to Ukraine proceed apace.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 24
So, the Thai Army is now ahead of the US Army in using heavy multi-copter drones?

This underscores the vulnerability of the West to drones due to its bureaucratically bloated and infinitely slow military procurement systems.

1/
The snail like pace of Western military procurement versus the Ukrainian fielding of an all-aspect stealth shaped OWA drone in less than a couple of years is very noticeable.

2/
We are here.⬇️

3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 22
On the morning of 20 July 2025, a AFGSC airman at Minot AFB took his M18, still inside it's issued holster; and placed it on a desk.

It then went off, struck him in chest, and killed him

AFGSC issued a halt order on 21 July 2025 for use of M17/18 Modular Handgun System.

1/ Image
As an ex-DoD procurement official, that letter is a procurement killing hammer.

This is going to hit SIG Sauer like a moderate sized asteroid in terms of DCMA corrective actions requests or "CAR."

2/ Image
This AFGSC halt use order letter will be grounds for a level three corrective action request (CAR).

A DCMA level III CAR is defined as follows:

"A Level III Corrective Action Request (CAR) issued by the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) is a serious action taken when there are significant contractual nonconformities.

It is directed to the supplier's top management and is just one step below the possibility of contract suspension or termination.

This type of CAR serves as a management tool to address critical issues that need immediate attention."

3/Image
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 22
During WW2's combined bomber offensive, unitary incendiary bombs were found to be five times as effective as high explosive, mass for mass, at destroying buildings & structures.

But the bomber barons were hung up on the tonnage delivered, not their effects.

Success Metrics🧵
1/
A single 100lb M47 bomb (left) was as effective as a M65 500lb general purpose HE bomb.

The Bomber Mafia in ETO fought incendiaries, as their bombers lacked the bomb station multiple release modifications for most of WW2, as the mass of bombs dropped was a 'success metric.'

2/ Image
Image
After the bomber barons -finally- surrendered to the realty of incendiaries operational effectiveness.

Avoiding any USAAF responsibility for the horror that was Dresden cemented the burying of the effectiveness of USAAF firebombs used in the ETO.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 18
This:

"Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite."

Also applies to railway cassette bearings for Russian wagons and locomotives.

Russian Railway🧵
1/ Image
Low friction roller bearings are a major technological strength of the West. 

They are the difference between Rolls Royce jet engines lasting thousands of hours and Russian or Chinese jet engines lasting half as long.

Rail roller bearings are different in their application

2/
...but the computer control software for SKF & Amsted co-production machine tooling that Russia used is proprietary. That software left Russia in April/May 2022.

Russian rail system has been doing the whole 'just in time' inventory game

3/
Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 16
The following is a serialized post from Strategypage -dot- com on the disastrously bad US Navy leadership decisions on fleet maintenance & where they have left US National Security.

"Surface Forces: USN Maintenance Mess

1/
July 11, 2025: The U.S. Navy is no longer able to maintain or repair its ships. In an earlier economy move, all the navy ship repair and maintenance facilities were sold off. The worst aspect of this was the loss of skilled shipyard workers. ...

2/
... The older ones were retiring and the navy did little to recruit and train replacements. Now, as the United States strives to expand its navy and repair and upgrade current ships, it finds that the resources are lacking. There are no easy solutions.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 16
Well now, the reality of Russian casualty ratios from drones and 💩casualty evacuation in the Russo-Ukrainian War begins to emerge.

'Some people' 🙄 have been talking about this for literally years and how it has gotten worse over time.

1/
This is what I said in April 2022 when the "professional" Russian Army was around and FPV drones weren't.

2/
This is what I was posting in December 2023.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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