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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Jan 20, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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NEW

My latest analysis on the UK's billion-pound bill for Cameron deciding in 2013 to "get rid of the green crap"

Result?

Energy bills are now £2.5bn higher than they would have been, if climate policies had not been scrapped

1/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
Many will remember infamous 2013 Sun frontpage, which reported then-PM David Cameron's "solution to soaring energy prices" as "get rid of the green crap"

Since bills are once again making the headlines, we thought we'd check what has happened…

2/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
The results of "getting rid of the green crap" were immediate and long-lasting:

📉loft insulation rates fell 92%
🧱cavity walls down 74%
🏘️1m new inefficient homes
🌪️onshore wind growth stalled

3/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
Add up the impact of "getting rid of the green crap" since 2013 and, given high and rising energy prices, you get a big fat £2.5bn bill

Ooops!

4/
The £2.5bn bill for "cutting the green crap" is spread across all electricity users (homes only 1/3 of demand)

But I estimate the impact on household bills is around £40, rising to £60 next winter

5/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
So what is REALLY driving up energy bills?

Let's check in with gas prices, shall we?

Can you spot the problem?

6/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

(Many thanks to @tmarzecmanser @ChetJPatel for sharing @ICISOfficial wholesale price data)
The overwhelming driver of rising UK energy bills – nearly 90% of the increase – is the tripling in wholesale gas & electricity prices

7/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

(Thanks to Martin Young at @Investec for sharing forecast increases in the price cap)
Looking a bit closer at those rising bills, we can see that not only are high gas prices overwhelmingly behind the increase, but oft-blamed climate policy costs are actually *falling*

8/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
Falling climate policy costs are due to the design of CfDs, now the UK's preferred support for low-carbon electricity schemes

When gas prices are v high, as now, our portfolio of CfD schemes *pay back money to consumers*, hedging costs on bills

9/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
As noted by SSE boss Alistair Phillips-Davies in a recent Daily Mail column, we can look forward to more protection from high gas prices once the current tranche of massive under-construction offshore windfarms get completed

10/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 25, 2025
NEW: UK climate advisers now "more optimistic" net-zero goals can be met

🎯Net-zero "possible" + "good for economy"
📉CO2 halved vs 1990
📈More "credible" policies
🚘🏡EV/heat pumps soaring
But…
⚡"Critical" to cut power prices
✈️Flight CO2 "risk"

1/9 Image
For the first time I can remember, the CCC says its progress report is "optimistic" about UK climate goals being hit. Interim chair Prof Piers Forster says he is "more optimistic" than last yr due to last govt's policies starting to deliver + changes since Labour took office

2/9 Image
Another notable change is that the CCC seems to be getting less prescriptive…

CCC has faced (inaccurate) charges that it has, in effect, set govt policy. But it's now being clearer than ever that it only offers advice – and policy is up to govt.

3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 17, 2025
IEA: Oil still on track to peak by 2030; oil for fuel to peak in 2027

"annual growth slows…to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends"

Here are some of the most striking charts 🧵
1/8 Image
In recent years, global oil demand has been almost entirely driven by growth in China…

…and that party is now over

Equally, US "dominance" of rising oil supply is also a thing of the past
2/8 Image
Since last year, the IEA has raised its oil demand outlook for the US, due to EV rollbacks etc, but it has simultaneously cut its outlook for China by the same amount

So global demand in 2030 is right where the IEA thought it would be last year
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
May 15, 2025
Could this be the biggest climate story of the year?

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand

Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta:


1/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall


2/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
The fall in power sector emissions came despite surging electricity demand growth

This is the first time on record that clean energy growth has been sufficient to cut into coal power, without the help of weak power demand


3/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 30, 2025
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Image
Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6 Image
Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"

Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"

Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels"
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26, 2025
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10, 2025
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets

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