Thread by @RitaKonaev

Here is something I keep thinking about. Russian military posture & troop movements increasingly point toward a major ground offensive into Ukraine. Geography, politics, operational reality all suggest that it will be hard to avoid urban warfare. This is a nightmare scenario.1/8

I want be clear here - if this happens, we are going to witness massive destruction, displacement and death. I say this for 3 reasons.

1. Urban warfare is devastatingly violent, resulting in very high numbers of casualties, especially among civilians. 2/8

2. Russia’s way of urban warfare—whether besieging Grozny or bombarding Aleppo—does not prioritize precision, differentiating between civilians & combatants, or protecting civilians & minimizing collateral damage. 3/8

In fact, depopulation by destruction is how Russia wins in cities. If you want to call that victory. 4/8

3. Defense has the advantage in urban warfare in general, and the Ukrainians are motivated to defend their homeland, so this could devolve into a battle of attrition, amplifying casualties and suffering. 5/8

4. If a large scale ground operation materializes, we are also going to see large scale internal displacement and potentially a refugee crisis heading toward neighbors who are not friendly toward refugees. 6/8

We can’t just keep talking about arms transfers, intel support, combat advisors, etc. We also have to plan for a massive humanitarian relief effort to deal with the effects of urban siege, explosive weapons in cities, infrastructure collapse, food shortages & displacement. 7/8

I hope more than anything this doesn’t happen, but if it does, we can’t pretend to be surprised. 8/8