Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jan 21, 2022 10 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
We're told solar and wind future

But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?

Batteries!

Yet

The world uses 51GWh/minute and has 64GWh of battery storage: enough for 1m:15s

2030: 10m:24s

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

woodmac.com/reports/power-… Image
Batteries won't save the US

The US has batteries able to supply 3:24 of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Image
Batteries won't save Asia

Asia has batteries able to supply just 31 seconds of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Image
Batteries won't save Europe

Europe has batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030

Image
Lots of people suggesting we can fix this

Yes, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

More realistic solar costs are 4-7x higher

from cheap but very unreliable
to very expensive (and only less unreliable)

lazard.com/perspective/le… Image
Most people don't appreciate that

most renewables (RE) to date are only possible because they are backed up by modern fossil (MF) fuel tech

(such as Combined Heat and Power and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
People suggest that "it is always windy somewhere", but

1) not sufficient throughput between regions

2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere

depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune

ft.com/content/d53b58…
How much are 3-10 minutes of electricity storage?

Not much

Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (11,160minutes)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108… Image
Perhaps not surprisingly, most people like power 24/7

Yet, most climate policy seems to be driven by crossing our fingers:

just build lots of wind and solar
& hope to fix intermittency later

But not enough batteries

And leads to much higher prices

reuters.com/markets/commod… Image
The first slide says 10.6 minutes, but it should be 10.4 minutes or 10m:24s Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Bjorn Lomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BjornLomborg

Nov 29
Paris climate policy will cost a sizable fraction of 21st century prosperity

Two new, explosive, peer-reviewed papers show net-zero/1.5°C :

Benefit $4.5 trillion/year

Cost $26.8 trillion/year

Total loss is $1,800 trillion over the century

We must do better

🧵 + refs Image
New special issue of peer-reviewed journal 𝘊𝘭𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘴

First climate economic article shows cost and benefit of 1.5°C target

worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2…
worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2…
Image
Climate benefit of 1.5°C policy is less than 0.5% of global GDP by mid-century and 3.1% by 2100

This is an overestimate, as it assumes change from absurdly high damage (RCP8.5) to 1.5°C

Based on new meta-analysis, 39 papers w/61 published estimates

worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2…
Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 7
No, electric cars aren't taking over the world

Even in 2050, two-thirds of all cars globally will still be gasoline and diesel cars

Electric cars will be one-fourth

Acc to Biden's Energy Information Administration's October 2023 Reference projection eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/d…
Image
According to Biden's Energy Information Administration's October 2023 projection

Sales in 2050 will still be 62% gasoline and diesel cars and electric cars 28%

People think electric cars will make up a much higher share of cars because of incessant media attention, but in reality, the share is estimated to be even lower in the US (the right number is 12%)

Read 5 tweets
Oct 29
According to Biden's Energy Information Administration, what percentage of US cars on the road in 2050 will be electric?

Pls answer the poll in the next tweet

before seeing the answer below

International Energy Outlook, October 2023
eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
Image
According to Biden's Energy Information Administration, in its reference scenario,

what percentage of US cars on the road in 2050 will be battery electric vehicles?

From October 2023, eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
US electric cars will go from selling 769,000 in 2023 to 2.4 million in 2050, increasing from 5% to 14% of total, annual sales

According to Biden's Energy Information Agency 2023 Reference scenario, based on current policies (including IRA), eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 23
Alternative energy is bleeding money

If your pension fund invested $100 in the global stock market 15 years ago, it would now be $461.61

But if they went all-green, your pension will now only be $73.56

(Since Sept 23, global lost another 2%, green 11%)

msci.com/documents/1019…
Image
NY City Pension Fund is proud divesting $4bn of fossil fuels stocks

— could have been smart as fossils done less well than general stock market over past 15 years

But they divested stupidly in 2021, after which fossils rallied


msci.com/documents/1019…
climate.cityofnewyork.us/subtopics/dive…
Image
NY City Pension Fund proud divesting $4bn of fossil fuels stocks, but poorly, as they rallied

And they invested $6bn in green in 2021, at the peak

Now likely with large losses

If it were my pension money, I'd be angry

msci.com/documents/1019…
Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23
Data:

Fire has burned 𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙨𝙩 area in the US in a decade

Have you seen that reported anywhere?

Yes, Canada burned much more (constantly reported), but the US, Europe, Africa, Asia burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

In total, world burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

🧵 and refs below

gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Image
Contrary to what you constantly hear in the media

Global fire in 2023 has so far burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 than normal

Yes, the Americas burned much more,

but surely the media should also tell you that Africa and Europe burned much less?

gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Image
Global emissions of CO₂ from fire is down
Read 7 tweets
Aug 7
Data: Fire has burned 𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙨𝙩 area in Europe in a decade

Media: constantly shows pics of fire from Greece (much more burn), but ignores Bulgaria, Ukraine, Portugal and all other places with much less burn

We need better information

https://t.co/S3dVREKnOQgwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Image
Contrary to what you constantly hear in the media

Global fire in 2023 has so far burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 than normal

Yes, the Americas burned much more, but surely the media should also tell you that Africa and Europe burned much less?

https://t.co/JsMjfcWFDvgwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Image
Global emissions of CO₂ from fire is down
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(