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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
@BjornLomborg
Jan 21, 2022 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
We're told solar and wind future

But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?

Batteries!

Yet

The world uses 51GWh/minute and has 64GWh of battery storage: enough for 1m:15s

2030: 10m:24s

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

woodmac.com/reports/power-… Image
Batteries won't save the US

The US has batteries able to supply 3:24 of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Image
Batteries won't save Asia

Asia has batteries able to supply just 31 seconds of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Image
Batteries won't save Europe

Europe has batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030

Image
Lots of people suggesting we can fix this

Yes, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

More realistic solar costs are 4-7x higher

from cheap but very unreliable
to very expensive (and only less unreliable)

lazard.com/perspective/le… Image
Most people don't appreciate that

most renewables (RE) to date are only possible because they are backed up by modern fossil (MF) fuel tech

(such as Combined Heat and Power and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
People suggest that "it is always windy somewhere", but

1) not sufficient throughput between regions

2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere

depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune

ft.com/content/d53b58…
How much are 3-10 minutes of electricity storage?

Not much

Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (11,160minutes)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108… Image
Perhaps not surprisingly, most people like power 24/7

Yet, most climate policy seems to be driven by crossing our fingers:

just build lots of wind and solar
& hope to fix intermittency later

But not enough batteries

And leads to much higher prices

reuters.com/markets/commod… Image
The first slide says 10.6 minutes, but it should be 10.4 minutes or 10m:24s Image

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jun 30
Awful climate scare

New Nature study claims climate means less food, “like everyone giving up breakfast."

Media even spins "mass starvation"

No, study's small print reveals ever more food, tempered slightly by climate

+ many other issues

The scare is the point

🧵Image
New study claims climate leads to much less food

Reality? "Reduction" is merely a deviation from increasing baseline yields

So, not less food overall, but slightly less of much more food

Still, the researchers tell the "less food" story to the public

nature.com/articles/s4158…Image
New study claims climate means food loss like giving up breakfast

Only true IF agricultural innovation halts today

Preposterous to assume progress stops — global yields up 8% since 2015, 1%+ annually since 1961

The researchers don't believe it, but they tell journalists Image
Read 9 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
May 4
The cheap green lie

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes electricity more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
The cheap green lie

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind makes power more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

True for both 2023 and 2019, before Covid and Ukraine

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
There are no high-solar&wind, low-cost nations

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes electricity more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Apr 30
Two days ago, Spain lost 55% of its power, most from solar

Perception: Everyone wants to blame anything but renewables

Reality: With renewables, the grid gets vulnerable (missing inertia, mainly from fossil fuels) so we need more costly renewable management

So Reuters deceptively tells us, "don't blame renewables," blame "management of renewables"

reuters.com/business/energ…Image
"By continuously reducing inertia, Spain’s policymakers engineered a vulnerability."

"Spain’s electrical grid was operating with very little margin for error, a risky game that the Spanish government has been playing more aggressively each year since energy-transitionist ideologues took power two decades ago."

archive.ph/eonJRImage
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jan 25
The myth that the green energy transition is inevitable and will make cheap electricity for everyone is one of the most dangerous self-delusions of the global elite

My piece for Sunday Telegraph

archive.ph/EufH0Image
Globally, fossil fuels supply 81% today (2022)

only marginally down from 81.2% in 2000

On current trends, fossil fuels are not on track to end in 2050
but in 4-9 centuries
iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes power more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati……

x.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Read 4 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Oct 31, 2024
Spanish floods are tragic — as they are everywhere

But remember flood deaths down dramatically

Globally, floods now kill 5,400/year, down from 400,000/year in 1930s

Deaths from European floods down 7-fold to less than 100 per year today

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Despite breathless climate reporting,

not only are European floods causing fewer deaths (tweet above) but

Losses from floods in Europe are declining, not increasing

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Death from flooding declining (2nd row)

not only for rich countries but for poor countries

Deaths declining for almost all extreme weather for rich and poor

for flood, flash flood, coastal flood, cold and wind

and for all extreme weather

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Sep 15, 2024
New study: Climate change saves 282,000 babies

Higher temperatures mean more heat, and more babies dying from heat

but it also means less cold, and many more babies not dying from cold

In total, higher temps saved 282,251 babies in 29 poorer countries from 2000-19

Did you read that anywhere?

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
As we have come to expect from studies of heat and cold, they use unequal scales, which makes heat and cold look about the same

— they're not, as you can see on the right


nature.com/articles/s4146…

Image
The study is very explicit in pointing out that the change in extra heat deaths and fewer cold deaths is caused by climate change

nature.com/articles/s4146…
Image
Read 6 tweets

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