Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Jan 21 10 tweets 6 min read
We're told solar and wind future

But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?

Batteries!

Yet

The world uses 51GWh/minute and has 64GWh of battery storage: enough for 1m:15s

2030: 10m:24s

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

woodmac.com/reports/power-… Image
Batteries won't save the US

The US has batteries able to supply 3:24 of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Image
Batteries won't save Asia

Asia has batteries able to supply just 31 seconds of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Image
Batteries won't save Europe

Europe has batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030

Image
Lots of people suggesting we can fix this

Yes, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

More realistic solar costs are 4-7x higher

from cheap but very unreliable
to very expensive (and only less unreliable)

lazard.com/perspective/le… Image
Most people don't appreciate that

most renewables (RE) to date are only possible because they are backed up by modern fossil (MF) fuel tech

(such as Combined Heat and Power and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl… Image
People suggest that "it is always windy somewhere", but

1) not sufficient throughput between regions

2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere

depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune

ft.com/content/d53b58…
How much are 3-10 minutes of electricity storage?

Not much

Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (11,160minutes)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108… Image
Perhaps not surprisingly, most people like power 24/7

Yet, most climate policy seems to be driven by crossing our fingers:

just build lots of wind and solar
& hope to fix intermittency later

But not enough batteries

And leads to much higher prices

reuters.com/markets/commod… Image
The first slide says 10.6 minutes, but it should be 10.4 minutes or 10m:24s Image

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More from @BjornLomborg

Aug 8
Today, the Great Barrier Reef is better than ever

But ten years ago, we were told about the "Great Reef Catastrophe"

and how the reef would be almost gone today

Moral of the story:

Don't always believe the scare stories

Refs in 🧵
Here is the 2012 article telling us about the terrible state of the Great Barrier Reef

and about how it will almost halve again by 2022 to 5-10%

pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 2
Impact of new climate legislation

Unnoticeable: 0.0009°F to 0.028°F in 2100

Why is no media describing just 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 your $369 billion will achieve?

Instead, we're being told:

"the most significant legislation in history to tackle the climate crisis" (Biden)

🧵 Image
The CO₂e reduction estimate comes from the Rhodium group's new reduction estimate

My analysis use the average difference between their current policy and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This goes from zero in 2022 to 511Mt CO₂e in 2030.

rhg.com/research/infla… Image
The $369 billion only goes to 2030 (still unclear, but not further)

Low estimate assumes IRA only causes reductions for 2022-30 (underestimate)

High estimate assumes IRA continues 511MtCO₂e reductions every year from 2031-2100 (big overestimate)
democrats.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/… Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 19
Long BBC story about Sri Lanka and tea

and not 𝗼𝗻𝗲 mention that the catastrophe was because the President decided to have Sri Lanka go organic on April 27, 2021

Almost as if this is not politically correct to say?

bbc.com/news/world-asi…
President very clear that he wanted to get rid of synthetic fertilizers for health reasons, not to save money

ft.lk/news/Organic-f…

newsfirst.lk/2021/04/29/sri…
A 20-step plan to transform Sri Lanka into "green socio-economy"

renewable energy
environmentally designed urban houses
reduce banned plastic (?)
25% extra tax on cars
"Encouraging mass media to spread environment friendly programs among the masses"

themorning.lk/cabinet-nod-to…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 17
Heatwave: "end of human life"

Standard climate scare

Yet simply untrue

Yes, heatwaves kill (stay cool w/AC+follow advice)

But for Spain

1) cold kills 6x more than heat
2) better adaptation means heat deaths 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲

Globally:
cold 9x more deadly
total heat+cold⬇️

🧵
For Spain, cold deaths outweigh heat deaths

Both cold and heat deaths have declined, because of better adaptation (air conditioning, better insulated buildings, better warning systems etc)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Indeed, studies for Spain show that most areas are adapting 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 than temperatures are increasing

which is why higher temperatures are leading to fewer heat deaths

enveurope.springeropen.com/articles/10.11…
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 8 tweets
Jun 15
We need to be honest about the tremendous cost of net zero emissions. Censoring this information (as the White House seems to suggest) will be terrible both for public discourse and taxpayers' wallets.

foxnews.com/media/bjorn-lo…
McKinsey finds a cost of $19,300 per US family in 2022, increasing every year.
A Nature study shows that a 95% reduction will cost each American more than $11,000 every year by 2050.
Read 4 tweets
May 13
Maybe scaring people witless with climate alarmism isn't okay?

(apart from being incorrect)

Howard Breen, climate scared Canadian wants to commit suicide bc climate

vice.com/en/article/k7w…
Climate change is real

But problem, not end-of-world

e.g. climate-related disasters killed ever fewer in 2021 — 98.7% less than a century ago

bc richer and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths

Climate change is real

But problem, not end-of-world

e.g. weather-related damage losses in % of GDP not increasing but actually declining

Read 5 tweets

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