Thread by @GrayConnolly

Ongoing thread here re Russia, Ukraine, prospects for War & its consequences, and a certain #Realpolitik about the 'Russian way of war' .... noting you can find my #DragonBear comments elsewhere.

Firstly, good maps here from the NYT of current Russian military dispositions ivo Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia, etal. Russia recovering the Crimea in 2014 enormously useful in all directions (as well as bases for logistics & Intelligence collection)
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Secondly, I did a whole thread here before Christmas on how the Russians approach war and statecraft (TL:DR there is a long historical method and very little that is surprising to anyone who reads & has basic common sense) ⬇️

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1473646113190080513

Thirdly, I did a thread here on the problem of Ukraine from a Western military perspective: it is not in NATO & it was, historically, half Habsburg/half Romanov, so lacked historic cohesion .... cf historic nations like Poland(-Lithuania) and Hungary

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1468318143185444866

Fourthly, NATO has no clear position because the Russians have the advantage of a strong military position vs few NATO members wanting to risk war over territories with significant Russian populations. Much of today's drama is the result of 1990s delusions re ex-Soviet Russians

Now, for the Kremlin, *IF* the Russians do invade Ukraine, then in quick time, Ukraine's battle is a magnet for every anti-Russian group .... so Europe will have a hot War in which ISIL, Ingushis, Dagestanis, Chechens, Uzbeks etal will all come to S-E Europe & likely never leave

Upshot of any war over Ukraine is not just Russia annexing eastern UKR where Russian populations live BUT a hot war (ivo major air transport corridors) but - much worse in many ways - a catastrophic refugee/illegal migration problem for the EU. This is obvious if not discussed.

So for the West, quite apart from Russia fighting to reunite its ethnic Russians, any war will have significant consequences for (1) global air movements/energy supplies given Ukraine is a warzone & (2) a massive flood of refugees heading West towards the EU's frontiers.

The average Eurocrat in Brussels (EU or NATO) is, rightly, more afraid of the Eurozone being swamped by a new tide of 'refugee' flows (during Covid & a severe winter) as a result of the Russians moving into eastern Ukraine than they are of Russia actually annexing half of Ukraine

War is uncertain and, whatever the intent is of those starting Wars, no War ever ends or proceeds as planned, but instead is full of 2nd and 3rd order effects that no combatant foresaw. War is best avoided & hopefully wiser heads can engage in negotiations & compromise.

I will add here that for those of us in the 'Indo Asia Pacific Security Domain' [or whatever it is called this week] concerned re China, our key allies such as India, Israel, the Gulf monarchies, etal, all have good to very good relations with the Russians. War comes with costs.

In terms of the actual war itself, the imbalance of forces between Russia & Ukraine is pretty ominous. Now, the UKR military will have improved since 2014 but, absent months of very bad weather, RUS' air & armour advantages are enormous (as well as practiced logistic resupply)

In terms of how a Russian invasion (even on a 'minor incursion' basis) proceeds, this plan & Indicators & Warnings done by @PhilipIngMBE is very sound. Only question is does the Kremlin use its Kaliningrad based forces/units adjacent north-east Poland to create any distractions?

Now, as I said, all War is unpredictable & even the best planning & preparation is at the mercy of weather & grave defects in what appeared to be competent military leadership that only became obvious once the War started. Good commanders can overcome adversity/bad ones create it

This said, the Russians have the only contemporary military to have had successive kinetic war successes over the past 30 years: Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine, etal. Russians will use speed, massive firepower, manoeuvre, and sow discord behind lines, to gain victory ... cf Kabul 2021

Will finish there as it is 2345 here and I want to think further on these matters. I think all of us are aware of the leadership & cognition problems in various Western capitals....hopefully someone in the 'deep state' (right now I want to believe one exists) is also thinking.

The RUS-UKR war plods along because neither RUS nor UKR have been fighting with great intensity - the UKR have no more men to waste while RUS has been fighting this war on the cheap for the better part of 2 plus years.

Caveat everyone's casualty figures, likely exaggerated.

An interesting aspect of RUS' war effort is barely using regular RUS Army units after initial months, instead relying on a mix of:
- multiple Donetsk/Luhansk militia brigades (some fighting in their 11th year)
- Chechens
- Wagner / PMCs
- Russian Marines
arena.org.au/reflections-on…