Menthor Q Profile picture
Jan 22, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ This weekend, took a look at the Netherlands. How did they become an empire? Thanks to the invention of Capitalism.
While Europe was a fight between Catholics and Protestants, the Dutch chose tolerance. Smart move, because they attracted talent fleeing from persecution
2/ This fueled a culture of wealth and power in credit. Amsterdam saw the first central bank, the first stock market, and the first market mania (tulip bulbs).
3/ This new capitalist economy, allowed the Dutch to finance their own wars of rebellion against Spain, and then went to build a commercial empire. But lets dig deeper 👇
4/ They invented the multinational (1602): merchants found a way to reduce the risk of loss of their fleet. Initially, they would load one vessel with all the won booty. That meant, that all their risk was concentrated in one vessel.
5/ They realized that by dividing the booty in different ships, each member would only lose a %. This is how the East India company was formed in Amsterdam. It is the first multinational as it traded and profited across several countries.
6/ First stock exchange, Amsterdam Stock exchange. Was the first time anyone was allowed to buy/sell stocks/bonds. It was of course established by the Dutch East India Company. Today it is still in the original place at Beursplein 5, right near Dam Square.
7/ Also, ‘Wall Street’, was actually named by the Dutch as ‘de Waal Straat’.
8/ The Netherlands was also the first country to wage war for profit reasons. Dutch East India was given authority and discretion to go to war without having authorization from Amsterdam.
9/ This is also a great book I read recently if you want to understand better how Amsterdam was in those days. Enjoy have and have a nice weekend.

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More from @MenthorQpro

Apr 2
1/ Let's break down today's $SPX options landscape.

Net GEX is at -$160.57M (negative regime), which tells us something important about how dealers are positioned in the market right now.

Spoiler: It's not the usual mean-reverting setup we see most days. Image
2/ First, the fundamentals. Spot is at 6,575.

The options market shows dealers are SHORT gamma overall meaning they're hedging like they expect MOVEMENT.

Contrast this with positive GEX days, where dealers hedge against volatility (dampening moves).

Today? We're in move-amplifying territory.
3/ The IV context matters here. 30D implied volatility sits at 19.7% relatively calm, actually lower than the 30D realized volatility (16.61%).

But don't let the low IV fool you. The GEX regime suggests directional moves are being "paid for" by options flows.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 1
1/  The short-term picture in $SPX just got a lot more fragile.

This swing model is showing a clear shift and it's worth paying attention 👇🧵 Image
2/  The model tracks 3 key levels:

• Upper band = resistance on the upside ($6,717.68)
• Risk trigger = where downside pressure accelerates ($6,339.36)
• Current price = $6,528.52 (mid-range weakness)
3/  Right now:

Price is trending DOWN Sitting between the bands (bearish structure)

Not far from the risk trigger (~$6,340)

That's a weak spot.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 30
1/ Something important is happening under the surface of $SPX right now.

Price is pulling back… but positioning tells the real story 👇🧵 Image
2/ The green line = CTA positioning (systematic funds).

These are rules-based players that:
→ buy strength
→ sell weakness

They can push trends further once they flip.
3/ Right now, CTA positioning has dropped sharply and is turning negative.

That means:
→ they’re starting to lean short
→ or reducing long exposure quickly
Read 10 tweets
Mar 27
1/ SPX positioning across expirations is lining up in a pretty clear way right now.

When multiple timeframes agree, it usually matters 👇🧵 Image
2/ Across near-term expirations, GEX is firmly negative.
That means dealers are likely:

→ hedging with the move
→ which can amplify volatility
3/ Spot (~6479) is sitting below key pivots (6500–6620 area depending on expiry).

So the market is operating in a zone where moves can feel:

→ faster
→ less controlled
Read 8 tweets
Mar 26
1/ Volatility expectations are shifting again in $SPX but this time it’s more about cooling than stress.

Here’s what stands out 👇🧵 Image
2/ The front of the curve (short-term volatility) has come down vs yesterday and last week.

That tells us:

Immediate fear / uncertainty is easing
3/ The curve is still downward sloping (higher short-term vol vs longer-term), but less steep than before.

Translation:

→ Still some near-term caution
→ But not as intense as it was
Read 8 tweets
Mar 25
1/ The S&P 500 is pulling back but the internal health of the market is the real story right now.

This breadth shift matters more than the headline index 👇🧵 Image
2/ The lower panel tracks how many stocks are trading above their 200-day average.

Think of it as:

• How many stocks are actually participating in the trend
3/ Recently, that number has been rolling over.

We’ve gone from strong participation → fewer stocks holding up.

That’s a sign of weakening breadth.
Read 8 tweets

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