1/ This weekend, took a look at the Netherlands. How did they become an empire? Thanks to the invention of Capitalism.
While Europe was a fight between Catholics and Protestants, the Dutch chose tolerance. Smart move, because they attracted talent fleeing from persecution
2/ This fueled a culture of wealth and power in credit. Amsterdam saw the first central bank, the first stock market, and the first market mania (tulip bulbs).
3/ This new capitalist economy, allowed the Dutch to finance their own wars of rebellion against Spain, and then went to build a commercial empire. But lets dig deeper 👇
4/ They invented the multinational (1602): merchants found a way to reduce the risk of loss of their fleet. Initially, they would load one vessel with all the won booty. That meant, that all their risk was concentrated in one vessel.
5/ They realized that by dividing the booty in different ships, each member would only lose a %. This is how the East India company was formed in Amsterdam. It is the first multinational as it traded and profited across several countries.
6/ First stock exchange, Amsterdam Stock exchange. Was the first time anyone was allowed to buy/sell stocks/bonds. It was of course established by the Dutch East India Company. Today it is still in the original place at Beursplein 5, right near Dam Square.
7/ Also, ‘Wall Street’, was actually named by the Dutch as ‘de Waal Straat’.
8/ The Netherlands was also the first country to wage war for profit reasons. Dutch East India was given authority and discretion to go to war without having authorization from Amsterdam.
9/ This is also a great book I read recently if you want to understand better how Amsterdam was in those days. Enjoy have and have a nice weekend.
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1/ $SPX options market is telling an interesting story today. Total Net GEX across all expirations is -245.79M (normalized to -100), signaling a dealer short gamma environment.
But here's where it gets nuanced: the distribution reveals distinct dealer hedging regimes.
2/ Weekly expirations are dealer long gamma.
The April 6th (2 DTE) carries +88.55M GEX (normalized +12.82), with call resistance at 6,690 and put support at 6,450.
This is where the short-term stabilization lives. Tight OI P/C ratio of 1.17 shows relatively balanced near term flow.
3/ Now shift to April 17th (11 DTE monthly): -177.74M GEX (normalized -25.73). This is the primary dealer short gamma concentration.
When dealers are short gamma at scale like this, they're hedging by scalping volatility buying dips, selling rips.
1/ The short-term picture in $SPX just got a lot more fragile.
This swing model is showing a clear shift and it's worth paying attention 👇🧵
2/ The model tracks 3 key levels:
• Upper band = resistance on the upside ($6,717.68)
• Risk trigger = where downside pressure accelerates ($6,339.36)
• Current price = $6,528.52 (mid-range weakness)
3/ Right now:
Price is trending DOWN Sitting between the bands (bearish structure)