Menthor Q Profile picture
Jan 22, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ This weekend, took a look at the Netherlands. How did they become an empire? Thanks to the invention of Capitalism.
While Europe was a fight between Catholics and Protestants, the Dutch chose tolerance. Smart move, because they attracted talent fleeing from persecution
2/ This fueled a culture of wealth and power in credit. Amsterdam saw the first central bank, the first stock market, and the first market mania (tulip bulbs).
3/ This new capitalist economy, allowed the Dutch to finance their own wars of rebellion against Spain, and then went to build a commercial empire. But lets dig deeper 👇
4/ They invented the multinational (1602): merchants found a way to reduce the risk of loss of their fleet. Initially, they would load one vessel with all the won booty. That meant, that all their risk was concentrated in one vessel.
5/ They realized that by dividing the booty in different ships, each member would only lose a %. This is how the East India company was formed in Amsterdam. It is the first multinational as it traded and profited across several countries.
6/ First stock exchange, Amsterdam Stock exchange. Was the first time anyone was allowed to buy/sell stocks/bonds. It was of course established by the Dutch East India Company. Today it is still in the original place at Beursplein 5, right near Dam Square.
7/ Also, ‘Wall Street’, was actually named by the Dutch as ‘de Waal Straat’.
8/ The Netherlands was also the first country to wage war for profit reasons. Dutch East India was given authority and discretion to go to war without having authorization from Amsterdam.
9/ This is also a great book I read recently if you want to understand better how Amsterdam was in those days. Enjoy have and have a nice weekend.

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More from @MenthorQpro

Apr 23
1/ $SPX momentum check

This chart tracks a Momentum Score (0 → 5) to show how strong the current trend is.

Right now: momentum is maxed out. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

• Top = SPX price
• Bottom = Momentum Score

Higher score = stronger trend
Lower score = weak / choppy market
3/ What’s happening now?

Momentum Score = 5 (max level)
SPX just made a strong move higher

This tells us:
the trend is currently strong
Read 11 tweets
Apr 22
1/ $SPX just made a strong move let’s break down this 5-day swing model in simple terms

This tool helps show where the market may be overextended or at risk of reversing. Image
2/ What you’re looking at:

•⁠ ⁠Candles = SPX price
•⁠ ⁠Red line = Upper band (overbought zone)
•⁠ ⁠Green line = Lower band (oversold zone)
•⁠ ⁠Dashed line = Risk trigger
3/ SPX is currently at $7,064 still climbing toward the upper band (~7200 area)

•⁠ ⁠Risk trigger sits at $7,216 approximately $152 away from current price
•⁠ ⁠We're in the middle of the move, not yet at the exhaustion zone
•⁠ ⁠This is a key zone to watch as we approach it.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 17
1/ $SPX just flipped its Option Score here’s what that means in simple terms.

This indicator helps show whether options positioning is leaning bullish or bearish.

And right now, it’s shifting fast. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

Top = SPX price

Bottom = Option Score (0 → 5)

• Higher score = more bullish positioning
• Lower score = more neutral / bearish
3/ What just happened?

• The score jumped from ~1 → 5 (max level)
• At the same time, SPX is rallying hard

That’s a strong shift in sentiment
Read 11 tweets
Apr 16
1/ Who’s really driving the $SPX right now?

This chart shows SPX vs CTA positioning a way to track how systematic funds (trend-followers) are positioned.

And the shift here is important. Image
2/ Quick basics:

White line = SPX price

Green line = CTA position

• When CTAs are long → they add buying pressure
• When CTAs are short → they can add selling pressure
3/ What just happened?

• CTA positioning dropped sharply into negative territory
• Then quickly bounced back up

That’s a fast flip in positioning
Read 11 tweets
Apr 15
1/ What are options traders expecting from $SPX right now?

This chart shows 1-month skew a simple way to see whether the market is pricing more upside or downside risk.

And it’s shifting. Image
2/ Quick breakdown:

• Top = SPX price

• Bottom = “skew” (risk reversal)
• Higher skew = more demand for downside protection (fear)
• Lower skew = more demand for upside (confidence)
3/ Current reading:

• Skew = CALL BIAS
• Percentile ≈ 16% (low)

Translation:
Options are relatively cheap for upside vs downside
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
1/ Right now, the options market is pricing in a lot of short-term stress and it's worth paying attention to 👇🧵 Image
2/ This chart shows the term structure of volatility for $SPX.

In simple terms: → how expensive options are across time (short-term vs longer-term)
3/ What stands out immediately:

Short-term volatility is VERY elevated

Then it drops off quickly as you go further out That steep drop = important.
Read 13 tweets

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