A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ, at a time when tensions on Russian military build ups relative to Ukraine are high.
What do we know and what can we speculate on?
Now, disclaimer, I am in no way a naval or ASW authority and will bow to the experience of others.
First question.
Why that location?
Let's explore the terrain. The Porcupine Seabright.
A deep, enclosed area, with only a western access point. Ideal for protecting a submarine?
It certainly helps if that western access point has an armed naval blocking force protecting it.
The red box is where the Russians will be firing into.
What's interesting is that this exercise box is 170 nautical miles off the south coast of Ireland.
Incidentally, so was a suspicious Russian trawler suspected of deploying submersibles back in July 2021 170nm away.
Could that previous event have been sub-surface reconnaissance?
Others may recall that the Russians flew their ASW TU-142 Bears over that location in March 2020 too.
Perhaps that was a sub surface signal mapping exercise? Testing 🇮🇪 reactions, or lack there of?
There's a lot to suggest battlespace preparation here.
Assuming the max range of the Kalibr-M is 4500km, and can travel at a speed of Mach 2.5 (3087kmh), then the images below give an indication of what is in range of that capability and how long it would take to get to capital target from the Exercise Area inside Ireland's EEZ
We don't know what is going to happen.
We don't know what the Russians are doing.
We can't see what's happening in Irish skies.
We can't see what's happening under the surface of the water.
We have no way of preventing something bad happening.
The Government are going to spend more tax payers money to hide from public view the arrangements that they'll neither confirm nor deny exist in the first place?
This is lose/lose for the DoD no matter how it plays out
1) If the DoD lose the appeal & it is revealed that we surrendered our skies to the British in a secret deal without a referendum, there will be public hell to pay
2) If the DoD succeed in hiding an agreement, it only stands to perpetuate the chronic under-defence of the country
3) If there is no agreement, it will show that we lacked the capability to defend our skies in 2001 & then every subsequent Govt actively chose to negligently not to build an air defence capability since. Politically, Sinn Fein is the only party untouched by this
As we enter another period of reform for the Irish Defence Forces, what can we learn from China's perspective of "Unrestricted Warfare" by Col Qiao Liang and Col Wang Xiangsui?
(Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999)
One theory of interest from the book is :
Firstly, I consistently reminded myself throughout this book that it was written in 1999 as China grappled with the acceptance of US supremacy in the sphere of military technology and affairs.
To revitalise the Reserve Defence Force (RDF), focus on fulfilment.
Currently, the @dfreserve Office of Reserve Affairs (ORA) are running workshops with Reservists regarding the future of the Reserve. A positive development and proactive approach. Regrettably, I missed the opportunity to participate, but it did get me thinking. 🤔
Lately, as I consider my own future in the RDF, I reflect on why I joined & why I stayed. I also think about all the potential applicants I meet, & why they make the choice to volunteer to join the RDF.
Generally, I feel that people join because they're missing something.
Firstly, strategically, delivering a radar system will suddenly expose the Minister to appearing weaker than ever before.
Why?
Because now that we can see the threat, not being able to deal with it highlights the inadequacy of the Minister's power.
There will be scope creep.
Radar is only part of a system, not a system in itself.
Announcing a radar is one thing, but if you deliver it without a fast air intercept or surface-to-air missile capability, it is going to prove pretty useless.