Robert Gilbey Profile picture
Jan 22, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Time for another thread.

A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ, at a time when tensions on Russian military build ups relative to Ukraine are high.

What do we know and what can we speculate on?
Now, disclaimer, I am in no way a naval or ASW authority and will bow to the experience of others.

First question.

Why that location?

Let's explore the terrain. The Porcupine Seabright.

A deep, enclosed area, with only a western access point. Ideal for protecting a submarine?
It certainly helps if that western access point has an armed naval blocking force protecting it.

The red box is where the Russians will be firing into.
What's interesting is that this exercise box is 170 nautical miles off the south coast of Ireland.

Incidentally, so was a suspicious Russian trawler suspected of deploying submersibles back in July 2021 170nm away.

Could that previous event have been sub-surface reconnaissance?
Others may recall that the Russians flew their ASW TU-142 Bears over that location in March 2020 too.

Perhaps that was a sub surface signal mapping exercise? Testing 🇮🇪 reactions, or lack there of?

There's a lot to suggest battlespace preparation here.

Also worth noting there's a fair few subsea cables in that area too.

So perhaps there is a risk to data communications?
@Andy_Scollick makes an interesting point here.

If the Kalibr-M is in play, that changes the strategic and tactical dynamic for EU and Nato countries.

Assuming the max range of the Kalibr-M is 4500km, and can travel at a speed of Mach 2.5 (3087kmh), then the images below give an indication of what is in range of that capability and how long it would take to get to capital target from the Exercise Area inside Ireland's EEZ
We don't know what is going to happen.

We don't know what the Russians are doing.

We can't see what's happening in Irish skies.

We can't see what's happening under the surface of the water.

We have no way of preventing something bad happening.

What's your plan @simoncoveney?
On this, there is adequate reason to disregard my previous assumptions in this tweet.

@GrangerE04117 offers good analysis here.

Nonetheless, it may be worth looking at the known missile capabilities that have proven compatibility with existing platforms

Adding a correction and new assumptions here.

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More from @RobGilbey

Aug 10, 2024
So, let me get this straight....

The Government are going to spend more tax payers money to hide from public view the arrangements that they'll neither confirm nor deny exist in the first place?

This is lose/lose for the DoD no matter how it plays out

thejournal.ie/state-lodges-a…
1) If the DoD lose the appeal & it is revealed that we surrendered our skies to the British in a secret deal without a referendum, there will be public hell to pay

2) If the DoD succeed in hiding an agreement, it only stands to perpetuate the chronic under-defence of the country
3) If there is no agreement, it will show that we lacked the capability to defend our skies in 2001 & then every subsequent Govt actively chose to negligently not to build an air defence capability since. Politically, Sinn Fein is the only party untouched by this
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17, 2024
A thread on #Books I've read in 2024.

Firstly: 3 Days in June.

Essential reading for anyone employed in the profession of arms, especially the infantry.

This book captures the Battle for Mount Longdon from the 360 perspective of all units/subunits involved in the battle. Image
"The End of the World is just the Beginning" by @PeterZeihan

This is great for understanding the flows & dependencies of globalisation and more worryingly, how it can not last.

It certainly helps shape a worldview where the USA no longer acts as a global security guarantor. Image
@PeterZeihan "Churchill's Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" by Giles Milton.

A book that reinforces my belief that asymmetric effectiveness is only achievable outside of established bureaucracy.

I thoroughly enjoyed this. It deserves its own mini-series. Image
Read 31 tweets
Dec 30, 2023
#IrishDefenceThoughts

THREAD

As we enter another period of reform for the Irish Defence Forces, what can we learn from China's perspective of "Unrestricted Warfare" by Col Qiao Liang and Col Wang Xiangsui?

(Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999) Image
One theory of interest from the book is : Image
Firstly, I consistently reminded myself throughout this book that it was written in 1999 as China grappled with the acceptance of US supremacy in the sphere of military technology and affairs. Image
Read 19 tweets
Dec 11, 2023
#IrishDefenceThoughts for the day...

To revitalise the Reserve Defence Force (RDF), focus on fulfilment. Image
Currently, the @dfreserve Office of Reserve Affairs (ORA) are running workshops with Reservists regarding the future of the Reserve. A positive development and proactive approach. Regrettably, I missed the opportunity to participate, but it did get me thinking. 🤔
Lately, as I consider my own future in the RDF, I reflect on why I joined & why I stayed. I also think about all the potential applicants I meet, & why they make the choice to volunteer to join the RDF.

Generally, I feel that people join because they're missing something.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 15, 2023
A few thoughts on the #leadership vacuum in #IrishDefence.

Committing to building primary radar probably seems like a politically correct thing to do.

I'm sure it felt safe to announce it.

Big capital project.

Not lethal.

Doesn't impact retention.

newstalk.com/news/radar-pur…
But then comes the problems.

Firstly, strategically, delivering a radar system will suddenly expose the Minister to appearing weaker than ever before.

Why?

Because now that we can see the threat, not being able to deal with it highlights the inadequacy of the Minister's power.
There will be scope creep.

Radar is only part of a system, not a system in itself.

Announcing a radar is one thing, but if you deliver it without a fast air intercept or surface-to-air missile capability, it is going to prove pretty useless.

The Children's Hospital of Defence?
Read 16 tweets
Jun 22, 2023
Reflecting on today's Consultative Forum on International Security Policy.

It was an interesting day, but don't believe the hype.

For starters, the only people putting Irish membership of NATO on the agenda were the protestors.
The protests were a venting exercise, but for me, it was all hot air & lacked substance.

Example: One guy was shouting at @MichealMartinTD that Ed Horgan from PANA was banned from the event, & that was a disgrace

Ed Horgan was sat in the front row & also rattled off a statement
PANA, in fact, had multiple actors in the audience, each having a go at reading pro-neutrality, anti-NATO statements.

The idea that their voice was suppressed is not grounded in truth. They were given ample space to engage in the dialogue.
Read 9 tweets

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