A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ, at a time when tensions on Russian military build ups relative to Ukraine are high.
What do we know and what can we speculate on?
Now, disclaimer, I am in no way a naval or ASW authority and will bow to the experience of others.
First question.
Why that location?
Let's explore the terrain. The Porcupine Seabright.
A deep, enclosed area, with only a western access point. Ideal for protecting a submarine?
It certainly helps if that western access point has an armed naval blocking force protecting it.
The red box is where the Russians will be firing into.
What's interesting is that this exercise box is 170 nautical miles off the south coast of Ireland.
Incidentally, so was a suspicious Russian trawler suspected of deploying submersibles back in July 2021 170nm away.
Could that previous event have been sub-surface reconnaissance?
Others may recall that the Russians flew their ASW TU-142 Bears over that location in March 2020 too.
Perhaps that was a sub surface signal mapping exercise? Testing 🇮🇪 reactions, or lack there of?
There's a lot to suggest battlespace preparation here.
Assuming the max range of the Kalibr-M is 4500km, and can travel at a speed of Mach 2.5 (3087kmh), then the images below give an indication of what is in range of that capability and how long it would take to get to capital target from the Exercise Area inside Ireland's EEZ
We don't know what is going to happen.
We don't know what the Russians are doing.
We can't see what's happening in Irish skies.
We can't see what's happening under the surface of the water.
We have no way of preventing something bad happening.
As we enter another period of reform for the Irish Defence Forces, what can we learn from China's perspective of "Unrestricted Warfare" by Col Qiao Liang and Col Wang Xiangsui?
(Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999)
One theory of interest from the book is :
Firstly, I consistently reminded myself throughout this book that it was written in 1999 as China grappled with the acceptance of US supremacy in the sphere of military technology and affairs.
To revitalise the Reserve Defence Force (RDF), focus on fulfilment.
Currently, the @dfreserve Office of Reserve Affairs (ORA) are running workshops with Reservists regarding the future of the Reserve. A positive development and proactive approach. Regrettably, I missed the opportunity to participate, but it did get me thinking. 🤔
Lately, as I consider my own future in the RDF, I reflect on why I joined & why I stayed. I also think about all the potential applicants I meet, & why they make the choice to volunteer to join the RDF.
Generally, I feel that people join because they're missing something.
Firstly, strategically, delivering a radar system will suddenly expose the Minister to appearing weaker than ever before.
Why?
Because now that we can see the threat, not being able to deal with it highlights the inadequacy of the Minister's power.
There will be scope creep.
Radar is only part of a system, not a system in itself.
Announcing a radar is one thing, but if you deliver it without a fast air intercept or surface-to-air missile capability, it is going to prove pretty useless.
"It wasn’t that long ago that our neighbour was oppressing us. Now it’s our protector, because we took our eye off the ball and effectively surrendered our neutrality by penny-pinching on our own defence."
"A series of deals with the British and EU to protect our seaboard means we are no longer truly neutral, but we can't fight for ourselves either"
"The strict definition of neutrality is contained in the terms of the 1907 Hague Convention. It says that, to call yourself neutral, you are obliged to be able to defend that neutrality."
Firstly, severing a subsea fiber isnt as simple as it sounds. Breaking a cable is one thing, severing it, is quite another.
Fiber optics are lightweight glass products, but propagating light across oceans requires power, so the cable is more a power cable as it is a fiber cable.
What's worth noting is that as the technology evolves, the form factor of subsea cables start to change.
More fiber cores are being pumped into small cables, means longer cables can be spooled onto cable laying ships.