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Robert Gilbey Profile picture
Robert Gilbey
@RobGilbey
Hyperscale Datacentre Engineer | Army Reservist | Irish Defence Advocate | Tech, NatSec, and Geopolitics | Views, rants, bad jokes are my own. RT ≠ endorsement
Aug 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
So, let me get this straight....

The Government are going to spend more tax payers money to hide from public view the arrangements that they'll neither confirm nor deny exist in the first place?

This is lose/lose for the DoD no matter how it plays out

thejournal.ie/state-lodges-a… 1) If the DoD lose the appeal & it is revealed that we surrendered our skies to the British in a secret deal without a referendum, there will be public hell to pay

2) If the DoD succeed in hiding an agreement, it only stands to perpetuate the chronic under-defence of the country
Dec 30, 2023 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
#IrishDefenceThoughts

THREAD

As we enter another period of reform for the Irish Defence Forces, what can we learn from China's perspective of "Unrestricted Warfare" by Col Qiao Liang and Col Wang Xiangsui?

(Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999) Image One theory of interest from the book is : Image
Dec 11, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
#IrishDefenceThoughts for the day...

To revitalise the Reserve Defence Force (RDF), focus on fulfilment. Image Currently, the @dfreserve Office of Reserve Affairs (ORA) are running workshops with Reservists regarding the future of the Reserve. A positive development and proactive approach. Regrettably, I missed the opportunity to participate, but it did get me thinking. 🤔
Oct 15, 2023 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
A few thoughts on the #leadership vacuum in #IrishDefence.

Committing to building primary radar probably seems like a politically correct thing to do.

I'm sure it felt safe to announce it.

Big capital project.

Not lethal.

Doesn't impact retention.

newstalk.com/news/radar-pur… But then comes the problems.

Firstly, strategically, delivering a radar system will suddenly expose the Minister to appearing weaker than ever before.

Why?

Because now that we can see the threat, not being able to deal with it highlights the inadequacy of the Minister's power.
Jun 22, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Reflecting on today's Consultative Forum on International Security Policy.

It was an interesting day, but don't believe the hype.

For starters, the only people putting Irish membership of NATO on the agenda were the protestors. The protests were a venting exercise, but for me, it was all hot air & lacked substance.

Example: One guy was shouting at @MichealMartinTD that Ed Horgan from PANA was banned from the event, & that was a disgrace

Ed Horgan was sat in the front row & also rattled off a statement
Aug 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"It wasn’t that long ago that our neighbour was oppressing us. Now it’s our protector, because we took our eye off the ball and effectively surrendered our neutrality by penny-pinching on our own defence."

irishexaminer.com/opinion/commen… "A series of deals with the British and EU to protect our seaboard means we are no longer truly neutral, but we can't fight for ourselves either"
Jan 22, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Time for another thread.

A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ, at a time when tensions on Russian military build ups relative to Ukraine are high.

What do we know and what can we speculate on? Now, disclaimer, I am in no way a naval or ASW authority and will bow to the experience of others.

First question.

Why that location?

Let's explore the terrain. The Porcupine Seabright.

A deep, enclosed area, with only a western access point. Ideal for protecting a submarine?
Jan 12, 2022 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
Cutting a cable may not constitute an act of war, but that doesn't mean the cable isn't a military target.

What are the implications of subsea fibers being considered military targets?

What @naval_service capabilities should we have to protect this critical data infrastructure? Firstly, severing a subsea fiber isnt as simple as it sounds. Breaking a cable is one thing, severing it, is quite another.

Fiber optics are lightweight glass products, but propagating light across oceans requires power, so the cable is more a power cable as it is a fiber cable.
Jan 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 9 min read
Is neutrality a hill worth a United Ireland dying on?

Hypothetically, if a #UnitedIreland was conditional on the State applying for @NATO membership, would it be worth surrendering the undefined policy of #neutrality?

@sinnfeinireland
@fiannafailparty
@FineGael
@labour To get as broad a viewpoint as possible, any retweets of the poll would be appreciated.
Jan 10, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Too many questions to answer in a single tweet, so I'll thread my reply.

Firstly, I will ask what is your interpretation of #neutrality?

I have to ask because Irish neutrality is subjective

It is not a written policy, nor is it recognised officially by any other nation or body Actually, the latter point isn't strictly accurate, as @NATO acknowledges Ireland's "military neutrality" (note: they spelt out what it means to them).

Beyond that, there's no legally binding defined statement of Irish neutrality.

It does not exist.

nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
Mar 11, 2021 • 16 tweets • 8 min read
The last line is telling.

THREAD

The @IRLCoDF need to be seen to do something on #Cyber because @IRLDeptDefence offloaded general #CyberDefence responsibility onto @Dept_ECC & @ncsc_gov_ie.

But The National Cyber Security Strategy doesn't cater for defensive & offensive Ops. So how can the @IRLCoDF build that capability into the @defenceforces as part of it's recommendations?

SPOILER:

It can't all sit with the Communication and Information Services (CIS) Corps.
Feb 14, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Irregular warfare has and continues to be a feature of modern conflict.

Should Ireland have an Irregular Reserve as part of an Irish Resistance Operating Concept?

It's not as dramatic as it sounds.

At <0.3% GDP spent on Defence, Ireland can't afford to build a mass of professional part time combat arm Reservists.

The current model of relying on individuals to be professional military standard volunteers has failed.

So if armed volunteers is the policy, how can it work?
Dec 17, 2020 • 30 tweets • 9 min read
Thread:

"With regard to the RDF, the Commission will consider a wide range of options and will make recommendations to better leverage the capabilities of the RDF in their supports to the PDF and to make service in the RDF a more attractive option."

Let's unpack that..... Thankfully, the "Abolition of the Reserve" wasn't considered an option in the Terms of Reference as it was in the DoD's 2012 "Value for Money" Review of the RDF.

I would link the source, but the DoD have opted not to host it despite it informing the 2015 White Paper Policy.
Nov 26, 2020 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
This is a significant step forward for @dfreserve

"The decision to join or stay in the Reserve should be informed by a more ambitious approach to its role" -@simoncoveney responding to @davidstantontd

Special thanks to @BerryCathal for his proposals for Defence Act amendments @simoncoveney - "I will be encouraging [The Commission on Defence] to be ambitious & if necessary, quite radical to reflect the future defence & security challenges"

"I think we're in a good space here"

@BerryCathal "What the Minister has proposed has exceeded my expectations"
Nov 1, 2020 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Thread

The Commission on Defence, Terms of Reference.

We need a force structure that is capable of managing the domains of responsibility that we have. That means listening to military expertise that is driven by a desire for capability, over civil advice that is driven by cost We must review the fact that 79% of our military is only capable of operating on 9% of the territory that we are responsible for defending.

That's before we get into questions over why we have 9 ships, with only an establishment for 7 crews & only strength for ~5 crews.
Oct 21, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Cyber Reserve....
Specialist Reserve....

None of this matters if the framework upon which it is built is insufficient for purpose.

Let's unpack what is currently on offer for aspiring Reservists who meet the criteria of "specialist". 1. You have the skills Defence needs and you want to contribute.

Let's say you are a forensic data analyst with Arabic language skills, working for a multinational.

Straight off the bat, there is not an Intelligence Corps for you to join, but you're sort of a techie, so... CIS.