Zooming out. August 2021 was the first domino. We can't read what's happening today - Putin vs Europe, China escalating threats to Taiwan, or the Iranian regime axis more emboldened to attack US allies - without understanding the geopolitical impact of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
At the same time, we cannot miss how this is connected to the internal dysfunction in American democracy. America is no longer able to uphold or dictate rules around the world, but the foreign policy dysfunction is connected to a domestic politics dysfunction that's unmistakable.
Zooming out further. The pre-21st century world order was Western-centric, and Western-created, at the cost of most everyone else. It was possible due to a huge power disparity. But the weak do not remain weak. As the power disparity reduces, the world order shakes.
This situation is not temporary. We're transitioning away from familiar territory and towards unfamiliar territory. The transitions are based on long-term, very gradual trends; the actions/inactions of individual politicians only accelerated trends that were already at play.
The question laid at our feet is: How do we protect our values in this new, unfamiliar territory of failing empires, collapsing order, resurgent revanchism, ethnic nationalism, right-wing populism, rising inequality, and toothless institutions? The answer starts with this: Vision
If we can't provide a vision, we cannot build movements. If we cannot build movements, we cannot build power. We need a vision of a world of peace, dignity, equality, and prosperity that is not dominated by Western ex-colonialists, but also not dominated by revanchist dictators.
If you're a smart person, I implore you not to waste your coming decades trying to salvage an order that is failing anyway. We need a vision of humanity that we can all get behind; a world we'd want our children and grandchildren to live in. Because our own ship has sailed.
Yes, I know the the top tweet does not reflect the rest of the thread, but then I'm zooming out. I did predict last year that we'll be referring back to the Afghanistan as the first domino, for years to come.
https://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/1426922436839231493
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
