A comprehensive analysis on this market crash
- Why crash?
- Is it over?
- Wen recover?
- What to do?
- Why crash?
- Is it over?
- Wen recover?
- What to do?
1.1/ Why crash? - Macroeconomics
Negative news all coming together this time
- Fed taper
- Interest increase
- Inflation
- Poor company earnings
- Weak consumer and business sentiment
- Covid
Negative news all coming together this time
- Fed taper
- Interest increase
- Inflation
- Poor company earnings
- Weak consumer and business sentiment
- Covid
1.2/ Why crash? - Charts
- $BTC dominance dropped below 40%. Believe it or not, every time it reached this low, market crashed
- Almost “only up” for 2 yrs straight
- There's a downfall trend line $BTC didn’t break out
- Haven’t seen the 8/21 EMA cross
- Vol. has been declining
- $BTC dominance dropped below 40%. Believe it or not, every time it reached this low, market crashed
- Almost “only up” for 2 yrs straight
- There's a downfall trend line $BTC didn’t break out
- Haven’t seen the 8/21 EMA cross
- Vol. has been declining
1.3/ Why crash? - Greed and Whales
- I know the overall $BTC fear index is extreme, but med-low caps have been definitely greedy, as people making more profits there.
- But, this is where whales fuck you up too. Whales and bots control >70% of the capital. They dump, we rekt.
- I know the overall $BTC fear index is extreme, but med-low caps have been definitely greedy, as people making more profits there.
- But, this is where whales fuck you up too. Whales and bots control >70% of the capital. They dump, we rekt.
2.1/ Will it be as bad as 2017-2018?
Back in 2017, it was a bubble.
The price was mostly driven by FOMO with the fantasy that $BTC is the future way of payment. But seriously, no one knows why. More importantly, there were very few use cases for crypto.
Back in 2017, it was a bubble.
The price was mostly driven by FOMO with the fantasy that $BTC is the future way of payment. But seriously, no one knows why. More importantly, there were very few use cases for crypto.
2.2/ Will it be as bad as 2017-2018?
Look at today, we've built a self-sufficient ecosystem with so many use cases people could never have imagined before.
What has changed?👇👇👇
Look at today, we've built a self-sufficient ecosystem with so many use cases people could never have imagined before.
What has changed?👇👇👇
2.2.1/ Changes
- Infrastructure: from simple $BTC / $ETH forks, to cross-functional multi-chain environment
- Use cases: from just trading to DeFi, NFT, Metaverse, DAOs, etc.
- Regulation: from “a dodgy payment currency” to a well-recognized stream of investment
- Infrastructure: from simple $BTC / $ETH forks, to cross-functional multi-chain environment
- Use cases: from just trading to DeFi, NFT, Metaverse, DAOs, etc.
- Regulation: from “a dodgy payment currency” to a well-recognized stream of investment
2.2.2/ Changes
- People's perception: from just a type of payment to the store of value/financial derivatives/proof of ownership/future way of working, etc.
- Energy: from the dirty mining days with PoW to the eco-friendly validators with PoS
- People's perception: from just a type of payment to the store of value/financial derivatives/proof of ownership/future way of working, etc.
- Energy: from the dirty mining days with PoW to the eco-friendly validators with PoS
2.3/ So will it be as bad as 2017-2018?
No, because the ecosystem gives people more reasons to stay.
More importantly, this space is constantly building, innovations emerge faster than any other industry.
This will only make us more resilient.
No, because the ecosystem gives people more reasons to stay.
More importantly, this space is constantly building, innovations emerge faster than any other industry.
This will only make us more resilient.
2.4/ But the risks remain
The traditional financial system and government don't like the idea of being decentralized. What's more, they are even feeling threatened by the ridiculous DeFi APY, the concept of stablecoins, DAOs, etc.
And unfortunately, we are still the minority.
The traditional financial system and government don't like the idea of being decentralized. What's more, they are even feeling threatened by the ridiculous DeFi APY, the concept of stablecoins, DAOs, etc.
And unfortunately, we are still the minority.
3.1/ Wen recover? - Short term
Whenever there’s a straight fall, there will be a quick recovery. However, as I said, the vol. has been getting weaker, so the recovery is likely to be quick, but small and short.
This is why you shouldn’t be overly optimistic for now.
Whenever there’s a straight fall, there will be a quick recovery. However, as I said, the vol. has been getting weaker, so the recovery is likely to be quick, but small and short.
This is why you shouldn’t be overly optimistic for now.
3.2/ Wen recover? - Mid term
If $BTC is able to break out the downfall trendline in the next couple of weeks or so, I will be super bullish. What could make it break out? You should keep an eye on the stock market and macroeconomics, sometimes you just need one massive alpha.
If $BTC is able to break out the downfall trendline in the next couple of weeks or so, I will be super bullish. What could make it break out? You should keep an eye on the stock market and macroeconomics, sometimes you just need one massive alpha.
3.3/ Wen recover? - Long term
- Crypto: I remain bullish, especially DeFi and NFT.
- $BTC: 69k is not the top, just a matter of time we hit another ATH
- Smaller caps: This may well be the year of smaller caps disentangling with $BTC.
- Crypto: I remain bullish, especially DeFi and NFT.
- $BTC: 69k is not the top, just a matter of time we hit another ATH
- Smaller caps: This may well be the year of smaller caps disentangling with $BTC.
4/ What do we do now?
First, secure what you have:
- Cash (stable coins) is the king
- Do nothing
Then stay focused if you want to degen again:
- Speculate one sector and wait for the trigger
Lastly, there is free money in DeFi,
- I will share how to hack them
First, secure what you have:
- Cash (stable coins) is the king
- Do nothing
Then stay focused if you want to degen again:
- Speculate one sector and wait for the trigger
Lastly, there is free money in DeFi,
- I will share how to hack them
4.1/ Cash (stable coins) is the king
- This space never runs out of opportunities, you need cash to seize them
- Making money is hard already, if you are already in a profit, no shame/regret cashing out some
- At a loss? Securing some is better than losing what you can’t afford
- This space never runs out of opportunities, you need cash to seize them
- Making money is hard already, if you are already in a profit, no shame/regret cashing out some
- At a loss? Securing some is better than losing what you can’t afford
4.2/ Do nothing
- This is good learning and exp., take some time and reflect on it
- 24/7 crypto has been stressful enough, take a break
- Friends and family are always more important, go hang out
- This is good learning and exp., take some time and reflect on it
- 24/7 crypto has been stressful enough, take a break
- Friends and family are always more important, go hang out
4.3/ Speculate a sector and wait for the trigger
Every single time $BTC stabilizes from a dump, the legit small caps pop. So you need to be super focused and don’t invest around like a bitch. Stick to only one sector, seek the alphas, feel the sentiments, once it happens, pull🔫
Every single time $BTC stabilizes from a dump, the legit small caps pop. So you need to be super focused and don’t invest around like a bitch. Stick to only one sector, seek the alphas, feel the sentiments, once it happens, pull🔫
5/ Grab the free money
Feels said too much, will start a new thread on how to grab this free money rn.
If you can RT and share this thread, it will help more people and WAGMI
Feels said too much, will start a new thread on how to grab this free money rn.
If you can RT and share this thread, it will help more people and WAGMI
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