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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Jan 24, 2022 • 7 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Surprised to see @timesredbox letting @cmackinlay repeat a slew of wholly inaccurate lines in his column on UK energy policy today

He did at least get one thing right: Soaring energy bills are due to the high price of gas

THREAD

1/
Let's start with the positive:

As Craig admits, soaring energy bills are due to high wholesale gas prices

As I showed in my latest analysis, nearly 90% of the increase is due to gas, with the rest mostly due to supplier failure; policy costs are falling

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
Unfortunately, that's about all Craig gets right

He implies electricity price rises over the past decade are due to renewables…

…but doesn't find space to mention that gas prices are now triple the level in 2002 (his chosen year)

Guess what else has tripled since then?
Next, Craig falsely says that gas demand for net-zero will only fall ~30% by 2050, according to the CCC

This is…not even close to correct

Gas demand falls 76% in CCC's main scenario, pictured, and by 50-91% in the other pathways
Craig then goes against literally everyone serious by arguing that wind power is more expensive than gas

UK govt: Gas is 2x cost of onshore wind; 1.5x offshore
IEA: We agree with UK govt
BNEF, Lazard, Irena etc: Us too

iea.org/reports/world-…
carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions about the rest of Craig's arguments, but just in case it wasn't already abundantly obvious, I've added a little clue

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Receipts:

Craig's column
thetimes.co.uk/article/why-ba…

UK energy prices
gov.uk/government/col…

CCC pathways
theccc.org.uk/publication/si…

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 25, 2025
NEW: UK climate advisers now "more optimistic" net-zero goals can be met

🎯Net-zero "possible" + "good for economy"
📉CO2 halved vs 1990
📈More "credible" policies
🚘🏡EV/heat pumps soaring
But…
⚡"Critical" to cut power prices
✈️Flight CO2 "risk"

1/9 Image
For the first time I can remember, the CCC says its progress report is "optimistic" about UK climate goals being hit. Interim chair Prof Piers Forster says he is "more optimistic" than last yr due to last govt's policies starting to deliver + changes since Labour took office

2/9 Image
Another notable change is that the CCC seems to be getting less prescriptive…

CCC has faced (inaccurate) charges that it has, in effect, set govt policy. But it's now being clearer than ever that it only offers advice – and policy is up to govt.

3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 17, 2025
IEA: Oil still on track to peak by 2030; oil for fuel to peak in 2027

"annual growth slows…to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends"

Here are some of the most striking charts 🧵
1/8 Image
In recent years, global oil demand has been almost entirely driven by growth in China…

…and that party is now over

Equally, US "dominance" of rising oil supply is also a thing of the past
2/8 Image
Since last year, the IEA has raised its oil demand outlook for the US, due to EV rollbacks etc, but it has simultaneously cut its outlook for China by the same amount

So global demand in 2030 is right where the IEA thought it would be last year
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
May 15, 2025
Could this be the biggest climate story of the year?

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand

Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta:


1/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall


2/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
The fall in power sector emissions came despite surging electricity demand growth

This is the first time on record that clean energy growth has been sufficient to cut into coal power, without the help of weak power demand


3/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 30, 2025
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Image
Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6 Image
Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"

Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"

Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels"
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26, 2025
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10, 2025
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets

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