So CISA is warning CI that Russia may act in cyberspace if the West's response threatens Russia's national security. I hear some CI respond "So what, we've always faced attacks from Russia."
At it's core that response shows a misunderstanding of what has and is happening
1/9
At it's core that response shows a misunderstanding of what has and is happening
1/9
As the philosopher Ron White once said, "It's not that the wind is blowing, it's what the wind is blowing".
Past foreign adversary activity in critical infrastructure has been to establish long-term access and learn about the environment in preparation for future conflict.
2/9
Past foreign adversary activity in critical infrastructure has been to establish long-term access and learn about the environment in preparation for future conflict.
2/9
What CISA is trying to tell you is that the future may be now.
If Russia is sufficiently unsatisfied with the West's response to an invasion in Ukraine, they will look for opportunities to apply pressure on the administration.
3/9
If Russia is sufficiently unsatisfied with the West's response to an invasion in Ukraine, they will look for opportunities to apply pressure on the administration.
3/9
They will have learned from events like Colonial Pipeline, where reports were that the Biden administration was very concerned about the potential political impact of gaslines, etc... would have.
4/9
4/9
They also will have learned that you can have real-world impact without destroying the technical underpinnings - if you make it economically infeasible to pump gas, then the gas will not flow.
5/9
5/9
You can also expect a continuation of disinformation and misleading activity. There will always be just enough about an attack that makes certain people question whether it was really Russia. Perhaps it will look like ransomware, or it will have Black Lives Matters rhetoric.
6/9
6/9
In the end the intent isn't to harm the long term capability of the US to supply the needs of its citizens, but to damage the immediate political ability of the administration to interfere in Russian affairs.
7/9
7/9
They will look to do that in a targeted, painful way, but in a way that can both be walked back easily and that can be denied at least at the surface level, even though anyone paying attention will know the truth.
8/9
8/9
Finally, they aren't going to come straight at you. They have perfected the supply chain attack and the abuse of your trust in your partners. They will turn your complexity against you in ways you will not have anticipated.
And that is what CISA is trying to tell you.
9/9
And that is what CISA is trying to tell you.
9/9
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