This is such an interesting distinction between private and public markets. In public markets new shares for cash of a company already listed can only be offered at a DISCOUNT to prevailing stock price.
Why should public market investors buy stock in a listed company at 150 bucks when they can buy it from the market at 100 bucks?
But in private market its often the opposite. Investors pour in new cash for shares at higher and higher valuations. For all sorts of reasons, of which very often a key one is some variant of the greater fool theory.
In the end, listing for such companies is a life changing event because, as described above, things that could happen (and were even encouraged) in the private markets will simply not be allowed by public markets.
Public market investors, who fail to see this distinction are likely to pay a heavy price in the form of subsequent dilutions which happen at lower valuations especially for cash-hungry and negative FCF businesses and where the prospects for turning cash flow positive are dim.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The first one is the "Peloton template." This is an example of a business that didn't make any money - not even in a boom year. google.com/finance/quote/…. And yet, in December 2020, during covid times, its market cap exceeded USD 50 billion.
The lesson about this template was offered by Buffett in letter in BRK's annual report for 2000: "We readily acknowledge that there has been a huge amount of true value created in the past decade by new or young businesses and that there is much more to come."
Zoom and Doom (for those who bought at or near peak)?
Key questions to ask by long term investors: How long will this trend of booming sales last? Is the current boom not just an instance of borrowing future period revenues?
Mail from RBL Bank MD & CEO (Interim). Assume this is true (I hope it’s true). Key words: “Any other financial parameter.”
Now ask: Why was the existing CEO asked by RBI to proceed on leave and why did it appoint Mr. Yogesh Dayal as an Additional Director on the Board of the Bank?
Am trying to reconcile these two seemingly conflicting thoughts. Current CEO says that RBI’s actions have nothing to do with bank’s “financial parameters,” whatever they may be. And RBI makes CEO go on leave and appoints someone on the RBL Bank’s Board.
There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen. This is factually incorrect. If you take out all but one of the cockroaches from the kitchen, then there will be just one cockroach in the kitchen. 🤣
But the metaphor of "there's never just one cockroach in the kitchen" is valid for business and investment analysis.
Basically, the metaphor is about information asymmetry - there is information about some shit happening in a company - which is not yet public information. And that it will take time for this information to be fully disseminated.
Trying to disrupt a model (local butcher shop) which has been around hundreds of years (think Lindy effect) requires u too not only sell at a price not too different from local butcher price but also to spend a bomb on logistics, packaging, and customer acquisition (advertising)
The idea that e-com players don’t have to pay rent (key cost for bricks and mortar players) looks attractive but only if you ignore that e-com players must also pay “rent” to book “ad space” on TV, print, and social media for acquiring customers.
Read a few media stories on what's happening in spot markets in nat gas that do not mention anything about what's happening in the futures market. For example, see price in April 2022.
Whenever shortages appear, the typical manager simply can’t wait to expand capacity and thereby plug the hole through which money is showering upon him." - Buffett
When shortages finally occur in a commodity industry, the rebound to prosperity frequently produces a pervasive enthusiasm for expansion that, within a few years, again creates over-capacity and a new profitless environment. In other words, nothing fails like success. — Buffett