Some questions. How can a non-compete fee paid to the promoters of a selling company be fair to its minority shareholders when they get an open offer to sell their shares at a much lower price?
This is such an interesting distinction between private and public markets. In public markets new shares for cash of a company already listed can only be offered at a DISCOUNT to prevailing stock price.
The first one is the "Peloton template." This is an example of a business that didn't make any money - not even in a boom year. google.com/finance/quote/…. And yet, in December 2020, during covid times, its market cap exceeded USD 50 billion.
Jan 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
That cycle turned quickly.
Zoom and Doom (for those who bought at or near peak)?
Dec 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Mail from RBL Bank MD & CEO (Interim). Assume this is true (I hope it’s true). Key words: “Any other financial parameter.”
Now ask: Why was the existing CEO asked by RBI to proceed on leave and why did it appoint Mr. Yogesh Dayal as an Additional Director on the Board of the Bank?
Dec 27, 2021 • 21 tweets • 3 min read
There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen. This is factually incorrect. If you take out all but one of the cockroaches from the kitchen, then there will be just one cockroach in the kitchen. 🤣
But the metaphor of "there's never just one cockroach in the kitchen" is valid for business and investment analysis.
Nov 24, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Let’s make no bones about this. On INR 420 cr. of revenues in FY 21, Licious lost INR 370 cr.
Trying to disrupt a model (local butcher shop) which has been around hundreds of years (think Lindy effect) requires u too not only sell at a price not too different from local butcher price but also to spend a bomb on logistics, packaging, and customer acquisition (advertising)
Nov 17, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Help is needed from fellow value investors! Am working on a new course @FLAMEUniversity which might be titled "Case Studies in Business and Investment Analysis." As of now, just making a list of various themes/patterns. Here is a work-in-progress list:
1. Real B2C brands; 2. Superficial B2C brands (which it was thought that the brand loyalty will last but it didn't) 3. Low-cost producers (Fisher); 4. High-cost producers (Graham) 5. Cyclical turnarounds;
Oct 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Read a few media stories on what's happening in spot markets in nat gas that do not mention anything about what's happening in the futures market. For example, see price in April 2022.
Whenever shortages appear, the typical manager simply can’t wait to expand capacity and thereby plug the hole through which money is showering upon him." - Buffett
Sep 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If you think about it, we successfully multitask a lot of the time. Walking and talking on the phone for example. When we drive we can’t just focus on the steering wheel or the rear view mirror.
Our moms and grandmoms multi tasked seemingly effortlessly. Just think of a typical day in their lives when they were married, had kids, and had a home to run.
Jun 27, 2021 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
This I agree with. While 100 Baggers by @chriswmayer is a fabulous book, there is a need for literature on building the conviction to hold.
And it’s not easy to develop a conviction to hold on to things that should be held. There are these “demons” that will enter the mind of the investor, which will prevent them from holding on to what will turn out to be an outstanding stock.
Jun 16, 2021 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Don’t take credit risk. Stick to quality companies. Hmmmm
Are HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank quality companies? If so, then did they become so without taking credit risk? Answer: No.
Jun 5, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Technically speaking it’s possible. In a tobacco litigation scenario, if courts decide against the company and award huge damages, then litigants can go after all its assets.
But the taint of tobacco is removed from non tobacco assets if they are separated from the tobacco operations with ITC tobacco having no stake in them.
May 23, 2021 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
Well, there is lots of disconfirming evidence here - and not just for platform companies but also from other businesses.
Take the examples of Uber and Airbnb for example. When they started out, they not only took on entrenched players (taxi operators and hotels), they also took on regulations.
Good value for money.
Incidentally, lots of other stuff can be done with this data. For example, if we know P/E and P/B, then we can derive E/B or ROE. And plot it over a period of time. It will be quite revealing if you do that.
Nov 19, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
One student in my Forensic Accounting course wrote about manipulation in many large companies and how it pushes the retail investor into the corner. My (slightly edited) response:
All investing carries risk. Equity investing is no different. But look at the world around you. If you really want to compound your capital and beat inflation and make some real money, you have to invest in equities - which includes owning 100% of your own business by the way.
Nov 19, 2020 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Really enjoyed learning from @nrmangal in his class to my students in my Forensic Accounting course at MDI. Thanks Neeraj.
One answer is that company engages in hedging by using derivatives as a legitimate business decision and claims the hedging cost as a tax-deductible expense.
Nov 11, 2020 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Very valid points made by you. In the class, the example is a bit more elaborate. For example, I include "hafta" as a necessary expense. Now let me try to address your concerns.
In the original example the street vendor has fixed assets of 10k, inventory of 1k, margin over cost of 100%, and one day's revenue Rs 2k. Depreciation Rs 50. And Profit was Rs 950. Annual profit assuming 300 days of work was Rs 2.85 lacs. and the ROCE is an astonishing 2,590%