Mike Honey Profile picture
Jan 24, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Here's an analysis of cases and deaths, for Australia, then state-by-state.

I couldn't bear to post this last week as the case rate was one of the worst in the world (with WA at near-zero). That seems to have been the peak.

The death rate continues to increase.
New South Wales is the worst affected state, where the case rate rose to just under 4,000 per 100K population. If NSW was a country, that would've been the highest rate globally for any comparable country.
Victoria rose to a similar level, just slightly lower on this "per population" basis.

The rise in cases was even steeper than in NSW, so the impact of that on deaths is likely yet to come.
Queensland's chart is just breathtaking - rising from "COVID-zero" to among the highest case rates in the world in just a few weeks.
South Australia's peak for cases was somewhat lower than in the states shown above (but still breathtaking, following years of "COVID zero" life).

It is noticeable that the death rate there (relative to cases) seems much higher compared to other states.
In Western Australia, years of "COVID zero" life and economic success are under threat from a community Omicron outbreak.

Hopefully the NPI measures applied can limit the impact.
Tasmania's Omicron wave appears to have peaked - at about the same case rate as South Australia.
The Omicron peak in the Northern Territory was only slightly higher than SA & TAS (on a population basis).
In the Australian Capital Territory, the long, smouldering Delta outbreak has been absolutely swamped by Omicron. The peak in cases was a bit lower than that in NSW.
COVID-19 stats from @covidliveau.

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More from @Mike_Honey_

Aug 2
Here’s the July 2025 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors.
I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms
🧵
If you are in a position to support my open-source project work, then any amount is welcome. You just need to create a free GitHub account, and you can remain anonymous if you prefer.
There’s info on that page about how your contribution will be used.

🧵github.com/sponsors/Mike-…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 27
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to early July.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, but fell to finish at 42%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 40%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image
This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵
Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
🧵 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to early July.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, growing to 58% frequency.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" was fairly flat, finishing at 14%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.* "Stratus". New York state reported strong growth to 78%.
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus". Besides the International Traveller samples, it has been most common in California and Colorado, although all are roughly flat or declining lately.
🧵 Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 19
Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant was fairly steady, finishing at 49%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 30%.

#COVID19 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image
The volatility is due to the ragged timing of submissions from various countries.

This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵
Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
🧵 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 19
Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to late June.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant grew to dominant at 40%, with LP.8.1.* at 28%.

Growth of the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is slower, at 16%.

#COVID19 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵 Image
For the US, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant shows a strong growth advantage of 5% per day (35% per week) over LP.8.1.*, with a crossover in mid-June.
🧵 Image
Here are the leading US states reporting XFG.* "Stratus". New York state leads at 59%. It has also been quite common among the International Traveller samples at 46%.
🧵 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 19
Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late June.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" and XFG.* "Stratus" variants are battling for dominance in an unclear picture.

XFG.* "Stratus" looks to have the best growth rate.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵 Image
Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" is dominant at 48%.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
🧵 Image
Globally, the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is showing a steady growth advantage of 3.1% per day (22% per week) over the LP.8.1.* variant, with a crossover in late May.
🧵 Image
Read 8 tweets

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