Mike Honey Profile picture
Jan 24, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Here's an analysis of cases and deaths, for Australia, then state-by-state.

I couldn't bear to post this last week as the case rate was one of the worst in the world (with WA at near-zero). That seems to have been the peak.

The death rate continues to increase.
New South Wales is the worst affected state, where the case rate rose to just under 4,000 per 100K population. If NSW was a country, that would've been the highest rate globally for any comparable country.
Victoria rose to a similar level, just slightly lower on this "per population" basis.

The rise in cases was even steeper than in NSW, so the impact of that on deaths is likely yet to come.
Queensland's chart is just breathtaking - rising from "COVID-zero" to among the highest case rates in the world in just a few weeks.
South Australia's peak for cases was somewhat lower than in the states shown above (but still breathtaking, following years of "COVID zero" life).

It is noticeable that the death rate there (relative to cases) seems much higher compared to other states.
In Western Australia, years of "COVID zero" life and economic success are under threat from a community Omicron outbreak.

Hopefully the NPI measures applied can limit the impact.
Tasmania's Omicron wave appears to have peaked - at about the same case rate as South Australia.
The Omicron peak in the Northern Territory was only slightly higher than SA & TAS (on a population basis).
In the Australian Capital Territory, the long, smouldering Delta outbreak has been absolutely swamped by Omicron. The peak in cases was a bit lower than that in NSW.
COVID-19 stats from @covidliveau.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mike Honey

Mike Honey Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mike_Honey_

Dec 20, 2025
A recent scientific paper compared long-term mortality by vaccination status.

I noticed that Table 2 drew a lot of attention, but was actually included in the paper as a static image. So I built a quick dataviz project to explore.
🧵 Image
On the first page, I've added a % Incidence change (vaccinated vs unvaccinated) and emphasised that with data bars. This is quicker for general readers to grasp than hazard ratios.
🧵
You can click on any column header to sort the rows, e.g. as shown by % Incidence change. The starkest difference was deaths from COVID-19 at +372%.

Other causes with significant differences were diseases of the skin & blood, pregnancy and childbirth.
🧵 Image
Read 19 tweets
Dec 19, 2025
A recent scientific paper included an antigenic map, comparing the immune status of individuals vaccinated with a range of vaccines "… vaccinated sera", against a collection of significant variants "Virus …".

The map was very informative, so I built a quick dataviz project.
🧵 Image
The map shows starkly that BA.3.2 "Cicada" is a wild outlier, way out on its own in the south-west corner. This suggests the current vaccines and/or disease-acquired immunity will not offer strong protection against infection.
🧵
Another point of note is how the XFG "Stratus" variant is the furthest away from BA.3.2, at the extreme south, compared to other recent variants.

This might help explain how BA.3.2 has been able to drive significant waves in Europe, following their recent waves of XFG
🧵
Read 12 tweets
Dec 14, 2025
Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to late November.

BA.3.2.* "Cicada" is showing a very strong growth advantage of 7.9% per day (55% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus", which predicts a crossover in late December.

#COVID19 #EUR #BA_3_2 #Cicada #XFG
🧵 Image
To include the latest BA.3.2.* samples, I have rolled my reporting window forward an extra week or so. So the most recent data is even less representative than usual. The picture for those dates might change as more data is shared.
🧵
Here are the leading European countries reporting BA.3.2.* .

The Netherlands leapfrogged Germany to report the highest frequency at 31%. Germany also grew sharply to 25%. Denmark grew to 16%.
🧵 Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 14, 2025
Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late November.

For the UK, BA.3.2.* "Cicada" is showing a strong growth advantage of 5% per day (35% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus", which predicts an imminent crossover.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #BA_3_2 #Cicada
🧵 Image
To include the latest BA.3.2.* samples, I have rolled my reporting window forward an extra week. So the most recent data is even less representative than usual. The picture for those dates might change as more data is shared.
🧵
BA.3.2.* accelerated sharply in Scotland to 16% of recent samples.
🧵 Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8, 2025
A recent scientific paper explored the impact of mass SARS-CoV-2 infections on Lymphocytes (crucial to the body’s immune system).

I noticed the authors had shared the data behind their charts in the Appendix Supplementary materials, so I built a quick dataviz project.
🧵 Image
Above, I’ve re-cast the data behind their Figures 3 and 5 in terms of % change from the baseline. Hopefully this is useful to help compare the subsets, whose results vary in scale.
🧵
I added interactive filter controls and a trend line (dashed pink). You can use those to explore for example the trends in the last 12 months measured in the paper, for the CD3, 4 & 8 series.
🧵 Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 7, 2025
Australian Influenza update:

It became clear during November that a unusual second wave is underway in Australia, driven by the new "clade K" (H3N2 clade 2a.3a.1, subclade K).

Tasmania, New South Wales and South Australia are currently the hardest-hit.

#Influenza #Australia
🧵
Western Australia had been spared the worst of this second wave until the last week or so. But now there’s a signal of a sharp change in case momentum there also.
🧵
The latest Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report confirms my earlier speculation that the new "clade K" (H3N2 clade 2a.3a.1, subclade K) is driving the "unusual" second wave of influenza in Australia.

🧵 health.gov.au/resources/publ…Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(