Here's an analysis of cases and deaths, for Australia, then state-by-state.

I couldn't bear to post this last week as the case rate was one of the worst in the world (with WA at near-zero). That seems to have been the peak.

The death rate continues to increase.
New South Wales is the worst affected state, where the case rate rose to just under 4,000 per 100K population. If NSW was a country, that would've been the highest rate globally for any comparable country.
Victoria rose to a similar level, just slightly lower on this "per population" basis.

The rise in cases was even steeper than in NSW, so the impact of that on deaths is likely yet to come.
Queensland's chart is just breathtaking - rising from "COVID-zero" to among the highest case rates in the world in just a few weeks.
South Australia's peak for cases was somewhat lower than in the states shown above (but still breathtaking, following years of "COVID zero" life).

It is noticeable that the death rate there (relative to cases) seems much higher compared to other states.
In Western Australia, years of "COVID zero" life and economic success are under threat from a community Omicron outbreak.

Hopefully the NPI measures applied can limit the impact.
Tasmania's Omicron wave appears to have peaked - at about the same case rate as South Australia.
The Omicron peak in the Northern Territory was only slightly higher than SA & TAS (on a population basis).
In the Australian Capital Territory, the long, smouldering Delta outbreak has been absolutely swamped by Omicron. The peak in cases was a bit lower than that in NSW.
COVID-19 stats from @covidliveau.

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More from @Mike_Honey_

Jan 24
Here's the latest variant picture for Australia.

BA.1 (Omicron) is perhaps more dominant in Australia than in any other country.

While there was an existing Delta outbreak in 2 states, the arrival of Omicron was just before most NPIs were abandoned, with most not reinstated
🧵
The BA.2 sibling Omicron lineage is present, but at relatively low frequency.

BA.2 is out-competing BA.1 in several countries around the world, as shown on this thread.
The Australian states each have fairly discrete outbreaks with quite different profiles.

Here's New South Wales, where NPIs were first dropped as BA.1 arrived, and multiple super-spreader events in mid-December. Together that paved the way for the total dominance at ~95%.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 24
Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand.

The lineage (BA.1) Omicron is dominant globally, also recently in NZ samples. The BA.2 sibling lineage is also present at significant frequencies.
🧵
An Omicron community outbreak was just reported, but those samples will not be sequenced for a few more days yet.

Hopefully this analysis provides some guidance on the likely composition of that outbreak.

TL/DR; it depends.
BA.1 with the Spike R346K mutation was classified quite recently as BA.1.1. That mutation is understood to give increased immunity escape.

That lineage change has not yet flowed out to databases and websites.

Here's the frequency of BA.1.1 in NZ samples:
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
Here's the latest variant+mutation picture for BA.1 with the Spike R346K mutation, aka BA.1.1 or "OmiRick".

BA.1.1 was classified quite recently, and has not yet flowed out to databases and websites as a lineage.

That mutation is understood to give increased immunity escape
🧵
Canada, the USA and France are reporting the highest frequencies.

The Frequency is calculated for each country independently, comparing to all the recent samples sequenced in that country.

Linear and Log Y-axis presented - log axis helps compare growth rates.
Canada has recently displaced Switzerland in the top 5 countries (by BA.1.1 samples shared).

Here's the breakdown of the top Canadian provinces reporting BA.1.1. New Brunswick seems the epicentre.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 24
Here's the latest variant picture for BA.2 (Omicron). Globally it is far less common than it's sibling BA.1 lineage. BA.2 has many unique mutations.

The frequency of BA.2 is rising in several countries, on similar trajectories.
(Linear then log scales)
🧵
I'm now presenting these charts with both a linear Y-axis scale, together with a version using a log scale. A log axis helps compare growth rates.

The Frequency is calculated for each country independently, comparing to all the recent samples sequenced in that country.
Here are the other top countries in Europe, by BA.2 samples.

Although their frequencies are lower so far, Belgium, France, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands appear to be on a similar trajectory.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 17
Here's the latest variant picture for BA.1 (Omicron) with the Spike R346K mutation. That mutation helps with immunity escape.

This combination was recently identified as a new sub-lineage BA.1.1, but that will take some time to filter through to databases and websites.
🧵
The global analysis (above) of BA.1 with the Spike R346K mutation shows it's frequency was low, but has been steadily increasing (as a proportion of all BA.1 samples).
In the United Kingdom, the frequency of BA.1 with the Spike R346K mutation has been steadily growing, recently at ~25% (of all BA.1 samples).
Read 8 tweets
Jan 17
Here's the latest variant picture for BA.2 (Omicron). Globally it is far less common than it's sibling BA.1 lineage.

BA.2 has 28 unique mutations so very different.

The frequency of BA.2 is rising in several countries, notably India, Denmark & Singapore.
🧵
Note the Frequency is calculated for each country independently, comparing to all the recent samples sequenced in that country.
Here's the latest variant picture for India.

BA.2 (Omicron) appears to have recently passed BA.1 and reached 40% frequency. Recent sample sizes are very low.
Read 7 tweets

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