Thread by @ashishkjha

We're in a transition moment in this pandemic

We're coming off highs of the worst surge of infections we've ever had

Cases are high but starting to fall in much of the nation

This moment raises lots of questions

With one big one: What happens next?

Thread

As Yogi Berra once said,

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future

So we should be circumspect about how much we can predict with certainty

But some things seem pretty reasonable to assume

First, infections are likely to decline in upcoming weeks

2/n

Here's wastewater data from Massachusetts

Infections are falling fast. Expect to get to pre-Omicron surge levels within a week or two

The rest of the nation will soon follow

And by Mid-February, infections should be relatively low across much of the nation

Why low?

3/n

Because of high levels of population immunity

Probably 100M to 120M people will have gotten infected in the omicron surge

And with about 90M folks also boosted

We have a lot of people with relatively high degree of immunity for the next few months

4/n

Given the likely upcoming reprieve, what should we do?

As case numbers fall AND hospital capacity improves meaningfully

We should relax public health restrictions

Including relaxing mask mandates and indoor gathering limits

Why?

5/n

Why not leave them on?

Because mandates are costly and should be used sparingly

And because during future surges, we may need to ask people to pull back or mask up again

Preserving people's willingness to do things is critical

Also,

We should use the reprieve to prepare

6/n

Because,

The big questions are:

Will there be another summer surge in the South as weather gets hot, people head indoors?

I suspect yes

Will there be another surge next winter in the North as weather gets cold?

I suspect yes

Will there be another variant?

I suspect yes

So as we pull back on public health restrictions

We must begin to prepare for future surges - whether its omicron, delta, or another variant

Obviously, I hope there won't be future surges

Or surges won't matter (because of our high pop immunity)

But hope is not a strategy

So prepare we must

How?

1. Vaccines

Current ones are terrific

But lets continue to develop new ones

Like ones that cover multiple variants or are pancoronaviruses or generate better mucosal immunity

And commit to building lots of doses early

Operation Warp Speed 2.0

10/n

2. Testing

There is still a testing shortage...though getting better

Within a month, there will be a glut of tests

And if no one buys them, manufacturers will stop making them

So time for US government to commit to buying, storing billions of tests

To use in the next surge

3. Therapeutics

We don't have enough therapeutic doses

Time to build up a large supply of orals (Pfizer, Merck), iv antivirals (remdesivir) and monoclonals

And

4. Lets replenish strategic reserve of masks

5. Put more emphasis on indoor ventilation/filtration

12/n

And last but not least

Focus on global vaccinations

Soon, the roadblock won't be vaccine doses

It'll be syringes, needles, cold storage, personnel

And lack of demand due to misinformation

We must combat all of these

And help get the world vaccinated

13/n

If we prepare

No matter what surge happens

We can be ready

With tests and mask and therapeutics and a well-vaccinated population

We'll manage future surges without large disruptions to our lives or livelihoods

We can't predict what SARS-CoV2 will do

But we can prepare

End

I wrote this out in greater detail in this @PostOpinions piece

Things are getting better

The next few months should be a reprieve

Lets use that time to recuperate

And prepare

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…