6/ Often times, froth is not grounds for divesting.
However the confluence of a) VC excesses b) secondary froth and c) crypto being entangled in markets I have no perceived edge in led to an assessment of low asymmetry, i.e. meaningful derisking.
7/ With public comp vals crushed, venture investors will start to rein in their gunslinger attitude a bit.
To the founders out there: up to now, you had all the leverage. You can raise on whatever price, set whatever terms.
This will turn on a dime - so stay vigilant!
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Here are some of the most embarrassing mistakes I made in my investing career.
Hopefully some can be cautionary tales.
1/ Confidence
Early in my career I placed much more emphasis on other people's views than my own analysis.
While triangulating views is useful, this leads to bad process and you end up being someone's exit liquidity, or missing fund-returning investments ( $FTT ).
2/ Hip firing
In 2020 I got carried away by the sheer euphoria of DeFi. I couldn't believe my thesis was finally playing out after a year.
I mistook beta for genius and started losing discipline. When things started unwinding I got hit bad.
Despite billions raised for crypto funds in the past 12 months, I don’t see it as particularly bullish $BTC
Short 4 am brain dump 🤔
1/ Managers in crypto are not paid to trade / long $BTC.
$BTC liquidity is high, accessibility to tradfi infra is massively improved since ‘17 - most allocators don’t need their GPs to charge 2/20 just to long corn
2/ Second 99.9% of new projects are building on $ETH, L1s, L2s - which can survive and thrive with or without the increasingly insular Bitcoin community.
$ETH functions better as beta for crypto funds thematically